Originally Posted by
Zedmor
European Journal of Applied Physiology and Occupational Physiology
May 1998, Volume 77, Issue 6, pp 492-497
The mathematics of breaking away and chasing in cycling
Fun article, but not relevant to your situation. Even in your short racing career I'm sure you have seen racers decide to chase for no reason, decide not to chase for no reason, not realize there are racers off the front, decide the break is out of reach and give up, attack like mad and get a big gap only to explode, let somebody dangle 5 seconds off the front for a long time, etc etc.
Do more races and try everything. When you find something that works, that's what makes it fun!