Originally Posted by
gregf83
You're getting bogged down in minutia. Once the virus gets hold in a region there isn't a lot of difference in the growth rates. The slope of all the lines regardless of whether it's a city or country is similar. Italy was above 20% per day and now, with fairly draconian measures, they are down to about 15% a day which still results in a doubling of cases every 5 days so not very good.
California is still above 20% day over day increase so it won't be long before your state will be at similar numbers per capita to Italy.
I don't really understand what you're arguing about. It sounds like in your mind this isn't a serious situation and doesn't require any special effort. You sound very much like your president last week. Wait a couple of weeks and I suspect you'll have a different view.
Well it is not as serious as many post, and Hoaxs are posted. There was one yesterday about a hospital in MI with teens and 20s on ventilators. I posted I thought it was a Hoax and got flamed for it. It turned out to be a hoax.
What do I want...Folks to
1 Look at deaths, not cases.
2 Look at data on CDC and WHO sites for your region. Population density matters.
3 If folks don't already know, consider the group they are in and fear accordingly.
4 Words like rates and graphs are used to distort. See CDC, WHO - but consider population, density. Death is the number we should be looking at. This has been going on long enough.
5 I want the excessive trips to the store to stop. As one poster said he's doing.
6 Edit Added - Hospitals will do little for folks not needing ventilators, which is a smaller %. Isolation in ICU is likely worse than just staying home.
7 Edit Add - A positive test will indicate you should be quarantined. In other words - behave as you are to behave now. Combine
#6 and
#7 - why test.
8 An while my posts have no hope of changing things, look at this on local population levels. Areas like mine with 0 deaths, declining hospital fill need a bit of a break from some of these Executive orders. SFO, LA, city hubs have understandable reasons they are the way they are. Rural, less dense areas should not need the same restrictions.
Cases are very poor numbers and we should ignore cases. Israel has ~800 cases, 1 death, Germany .3% deaths, other places 5%-10% deaths. Some folks say "we could all have it" - well then, nothing to be afraid of then as the death rate would be so low.
As to the rate of deaths for the USA (comparing to the USA so population cancels out) based on CDC reported numbers 3/17-18 42 died, 18-19, 37 died, 19-20 46 died, 20-21 (so far) 43 died. Cases are all over the place as testing continually changes.
So recent 42,37,46,43 - dos not make any kind of exponential graph to me.
If I plot the OC, where I live, and a larger population than San Francisco, we have grocery store lines, shelter in place and the numbers are 0,0,0,0,0. So, yes, I think the precautions are excessive for my location.
So I just want to argue with facts, not graphs and predictions. The ones posted near the top of this thread are already way off.