Back to the original question. I went out today and did 16.6 miles in just over 1 hour. Something like 16.3 average. That's probably about what I expect first thing in the spring, except that it'd be that speed for 25 miles. At 16 I was whipped. Hopefully the difference is just more out-of-shape than normal, and with some hard work I'll be back to my 19-21 mph averages by August. (Usually my average speed is dependent on what the group's speed is because I'll slow to whatever they're doing.)