Originally Posted by
Branko D
No.
Probabilities aren't just guessing.
Furthermore, 1hr tests are something people will, at best, rarely do (especially if required to do it on a trainer; I just can't imagine what could possibly motivate me to do that), so estimation based on recent best efforts is very valid and useful for setting training zones, as well as pacing. If you can't do your training based on these estimates or it destroys you when it shouldn't, now you know they were too optimistic 🤷
Probabilities are
by definition educated guessing.
Furthermore, a "20 minute FTP test" isn't 20 minutes. From Training Peaks:
WARM UP
- 20 minutes at endurance pace
- 3×1 minute high cadence drills at 100 RPM w/ 1minute rest between each
- 5 minutes at endurance pace
MAIN SET
- 5 minute all out effort.
- 10 minutes at endurance pace
- 20 minute all out effort
COOL DOWN
Let's see here...20+1+1+1+1+1+1+5+5+10+20=66 minutes, not including cool down.
The "20 minute" test takes longer than just hammering it out for an hour.
Any yahoo can go out & give it his all for 20 minutes for a good looking but worthless number It's the drop off after emptying out the energy stores that a proper 60 minute hammerfest or 66 minute "20 minute" test is getting at.
My actual 60 minute hammer till you puke is North of ~300 watts. My 20 minutes is unimpressive & gets less so as the times get shorter on the chart. So what? The actual 300 as measured is what matters.
My curve is pretty flat. Holdin' pretty steady at 3.5 w/kg at the 60 minute mark. Bangin' out 20 minutes on a piece of worn out uncalibrated gym equipment would never show that. How's your curve? A little steep on the left side much?