Well, now it gets interesting. A short but hard, lumpy stage followed by a proper mountain stage and then a rest day. Here's my SWAG at how things may transpire.
Trek have done a sterling job protecting pink, and I think they'll continue to do that. They haven't the confidence to take the race to everyone else but can defend, and they'll challenge other teams to take it away from them.
Ineos will keep the pace fairly high but will save their powder for the day after. Then they'll go into Skytrain mode on the next stage. But they'll be opportunistic and look for weaknesses and time bonuses.
UAE will want to keep it close until the final TT in Verona. Almeida seems to be a steady climber, not changing pace too much, falling off when someone attacks, coming back when the attack peters out. Don't actually see him winning a mountain stage, but he doesn't have to.
Bora are in a good position. I think Hindley will wait until the Cogne stage, but they may send Buchmann out as a rabbit and dare Trek to chase.
Cofidis ... well ... of everyone in the top 10 Martin is probably the guy everyone else fears least and considers least likely to win it all, so he may get a little bit of leeway. An attack on a hard stage followed by a good mountain stage got him lots of time at Napoli/Blockhaus, and it might be worth a try again. Even if he pulls it off and gets the maglia rosa nobody would expect him to keep it, especially with Cofidis' next man at 51st (they're not doing too badly in the team competition, but the only WT teams significantly behind them are the sprinters' teams and IPT) so if anybody in the top 10 gets a bit of breathing room, it would be him.
Bahrain ... not sure what to think of them. Both Landa and Bilbao have aspirations, I don't know how well one would take to seeing the other go, but they both can't go or Trek, Ineos, and UAE will surely come down on them like a ton of bricks. If one goes, Trek and Ineos will probably mark anyway. UAE too.
Movistar ... if Valverde wants a stage he'll have to act soon. He says he'll support the number 1, but Lopez is out and Sosa's struggling, so now what? Too cagey to count out ever.
Of the others in the top 20, BEX really need a result, it will be too hot for Yates, and at 3'45" Hamilton probably won't be allowed to get clear but he has to try. EF are also desperate though Carthy will probably wait for Cogne. This would be a good stage for an opportunistic raid by JV or Vansevenant at QS. Though what I'd really like see is somebody like Matt Bais or Diego Rosa make the inevitable breakaway stick and win the stage (it's short enough) -- the little guys should get one day of glory at least, and they're running out of stages.