Jumbo. I have exactly the same inseam as you. That geometry is weird, those bikes show a ton of seatpost. Don't want to have to jack that up even higher on a smaller bike. You will be leaning over more on the larger one, but that can be adjusted for a more upright posture with a shorter stem and/or riser bars. Your arms are slightly longer than mine, too - I would worry that you would feel cramped on the XL. Even if not at first, it might become apparent down the road, when you'll have to spend $$ to fix it. If the LBS insists on having you order a frame without riding it first, the least they can do is offer to swap out stems and handlebars to fit it to you a little better. If they can't do this, you should go elsewhere.