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Old 10-29-19, 05:30 AM
  #22  
bikenh
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A twist on staying visible while riding and on riding trails versus riding on the road...

I call it the 5/50 rule of traffic flow. I discovered many years back while riding in the evenings with no lighting equipment. I would always try to get home between sunset and dark. This was happening all winter long going on into spring/summer. I was generally always riding home from the library which a couple days a week would close at 8PM the rest of the week it would close at 6PM.

As January moved into February...into March...into April and beyond I was constantly getting home later and later each evening. As spring was coming around and we here stateside had switched into daylight savings time I started noticing a dramatic change in the amount of traffic on the same road as I was riding home later and later each evening. I finally came down and gave the effect the name 5/50 rule of traffic flow. It works during the school year, generally Labor Day to Memorial Day. It doesn't work during the summer months as humans operate differently during the summer months as compared to when they have kids they have to get bed so they can get up and go to school the next day.

The rule is simply...
Take the number of cars that pass by a given point(both directions, unless on a one way road) between 5 and 6 PM.
Each hour after that you cut the expected traffic count by 50% from the hour before it.

Another words say 400 cars pass by a given point 5-6PM.
6-7PM the same location will have 200 cars pass by it.
7-8PM the same location will have 100 cars pass by it.
8-9PM the same location will have 50 cars pass by it.
9-10PM the same location will have 25 cars pass by it.
10-11PM the same location will have 12.5 cars pass by it.
Typically if you are in an area with 3 shift work(factories) you will have a bump up, sometimes quite nicely, between 11PM-midnight and then afterwards you own the road until 4-5AM as 1stc shifters start to head into work.

I've used this concept to save my as in the middle of snow storms and sat out the snow storm at McDonalds surfing the web and didn't ride home until 8PM and had the roads to myself. Last year in late August I headed home around 7:30PM one day and I was spooked by the lack of traffic flow and then it hit me that it was the first day of the school year. I sat there riding, laughing my butt off.

Due to the naturedness of the human population this concept works on any road anywhere in the country. It only works during the school year. Summer months the rule changes but I have never been able to figure out what the equation is. I think it probably is something like 8/50 or 8/75(8-9PM initial traffic count) but I have never really been able to get a real feel for it as of yet.

By riding later in the evening you can avoid the traffic at anytime of the year.
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