Personally Id recommend demoing a 52 and 55cm if you have a LBS who carries All City. Both Surly and AllCity’s low-and-long geometries are tricky to size up. I have a similar build to you and I ran a 52cm Surly Straggler with a 90mm stem and riser bars as a commuter for years. Converted to drop bar and rode a 350mi. bike tour, rode and fit like a dream!
Definitely try before you buy.
Id say the 49cm is sure to be too small. Keep in mind that with each size down, the headtube shrinks, thus giving a more low and aggressive handlebar position.