Thanks for all the great thoughts. I have some data:
wheel axel: the wheel axel is not bent
frame: I used RJ the Bike Guy's string technique and the frame is out of alignment by 4mm (in the direction of the NDS)
wheel dish: ding ding ding YES the major factor seems to be a wheel dish problem! there is 16mm difference between the DS and NDS
So I will start with correcting the major dish problem, then try to get the frame into slightly better alignment and maybe this thing will be rideable if I use adjustor screws to keep the wheel forward in the dropouts.
Thanks again!