Originally Posted by
raqball
I don't think you can completely discount wind based on my experience as the wind strength and direction can change, sometimes drastically,
Of course you can't discount wind. Unless, by some miracle, you have a steady strong tailwind for a large portion of the ride, a windy ride will be slower.
Same with climbing. You lose more time on the climbs than you gain on the descents. Not to mention the climbs kick your ass so you are more tired later. At least that's been my experience. A 5000 foot century is harder than a flat century and a 10,000 foot century is a lot harder than a 5000 foot century.