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burnthesheep I do not overthink my performance metrics. Sometimes up and sometimes down. The research I have read on beet juice et al is that the better condition one gets, the less the effect. To say it another way, beet juice will not take you past your genetic potential. YMMV.
As I recall, you are a golfer. I am from a golfing family and starting playing as a kid. When I lived in LA and belonged to a CC, the pro I was using for lessons, said that the course lags the range by about 30 days. I found this to be true. I could be executing on the range but not scoring. As I put more time on the range, the course started to catch up.
So on top of weekly / daily cycling performance variations while training, there is performance variation when racing. I was great in training but sucked racing. I think that is sort of normal and over time the more one trains and races, the racing catches up with the training.
I am rambling a bit but I think you are doing great. Keep it up.