Originally Posted by hubcyclist

I'm 41, I've been cycling since late 2013. My gear is really modest, I have a base model Specialized Allez equipped with Claris and the most basic axis sport wheels. I did have a Lazer bullet aero helmet that was issued by my road club a few years ago and some tight fitting kit, but other than that nothing really aero. My pacing was just super solid, and I've been training a lot of sweet spot so the effort was easier than stuff I've been doing lately!

As far as groups, the fastest time on the course I followed was set by a few of New England's stronger riders in September 2020 and was 40mins faster than my time, so a decent group can definitely get under 5hrs.

I actually was messing around with mywindsock (it's a weather app that hooks into strava), and evidently there's an option to pick some future dates and it'll give estimates based on the forecast. I put in this coming Sunday the 20th and for the same power it's saying I could do 4:46, so I'll definitely try and plan future efforts!