Originally Posted by Carbonfiberboy

I take a rather different view of the whole issue, if this is actually an issue. I'd rather look at the whole transportation package, esp. as relates to climate change and the continued wealth concentration we see in many industrialized countries. In my area of the country, I see many more "people on bicycles" (POBs) who ride because they must, than I see cyclists who are riding for pleasure. Many POBs are poor or have lost their licenses through DUI, though those are mostly poor also. These folks are mostly the unhoused, immigrants, and those with low-income jobs. These folks are not candidates for e-bikes, strictly because of cost. They do use ubiquitous rental electric scooters and bikes.

There are also cyclists who commute on both pedal and e-bikes and have road bikes for recreation, but I don't see as many of those around here. Those are options for those with disposable income. What I see on the street are mostly big box MTBs. They're cheap and have low gears.

I see increased pressure on transportation due to climate change. As we phase out fossil fuels and move to all-electric vehicles, certainly the cost of e-bikes will come down with mass production. I see a future where the majority of commuters will be on e-bikes in good weather and on public transportation when it's not. Those who use bikes for transportation will continue to become a larger proportion of bikes in use. Road bikes will continue to be the toys of the wealthy, as they are now, "wealthy" meaning those who have money left over after they pay for the essentials of life, which continues to become a smaller and smaller percentage of the population.