I've flown to/from Paris three times, and once to/from Oslo. TSA inspected every time. On the first return from Paris, they broke my headlight mount, I expect by cramming things back in. Other times things were not packed exactly right, but nothing damaged. I think key is having no extra items in the box, and making things as easy as possible.
I was watching out the airplane window one day, watching the luggage handlers out of boredom. Our child stroller came along the conveyor. The guy's job was to move it from one conveyor to the next; both were waist high. He picked it off the first conveyor, raised it up over his head, and dropped it onto the 2nd conveyor. Sometimes, you just get unlucky.