Originally Posted by
smd4
Personally, I don't care who predicts what. Like others have said, 1) I didn't get into this sport to make money; 2) I have enough spare stuff already to last at least my lifetime; 3) There is still PLENTY of new old stock on eBay. If I don't want new old stock, I can still get brand new consumables like cables and brake shoes.
It's really a silly discussion, if you ask me. Real Chicken Little thinking. I help fire a 1941 steam locomotive on a local tourist line. I can still get vintage and operational steam locomotive equipment off eBay (and have done so). If you think old bikes are rare, trying finding parts for a 1941 steam engine. And yet, it's done ALL THE TIME.
Nothig is really impossible, but let's not underestimate or degrade others' sorrow over the second, third or n-th life of the classic bike hype of a certain era.
Different individual perspectives don't render the question itself silly (not that there are stupid questions as we know). Some care about how big is the group love for these, or to which age/brand/level of originality especially, others not as much, but might care about their personal shrinking possibilities on the same. Tell someone who meticulously restored his bikes for decades upto the original washer, that he has nothing to worry about "because the shop around the corner can print that part you need even from titanium if you want" or "they are still available, I recently saw a NOS//NIB one on ebay for 1500, yeah, they are not the 5 USD a pack they used to be" and no wonder he goes nuts, but there are plenty of others who are happy or even grateful for these. Even on these pages there is a hardcore regular group, yet beside the general common factor "we all like classic bikes as a group" as individuals we differ, I personally sometimes differ even in my own opinions based on a certain bike/whatever object.
Another thing - referring to the speedbicycles article - what else would a seller say about the market than "it's not good enough?" Obviously, those delaers might have seen the golden days of this hobby, although they started in the late 2000's which was already the second half of 2000's "classic bike hype" as I call it, still they caught the last vawe. So because of this, complaining or living through their uncertanities of their future based on the days traffic they were asked is part of the job. But I would rather worry that CV is dead, when the "mostra cambio" or the L'Eroica would be canceled year after year for lack of interest. But even then I would expect it to return with an even bigger hype than before, if not for else then because of a current film, music band, "influencer", computer game or you name it makes it hyped again. Classic bikes and human love for nostalgia - to each of his/her own - are not like rare animals. When you see the headline that the last known example of its species died yesterday, you know its less likely will change. If you see the "Nostradamus predictions" on the world end or the love for nostalgia, chances are a lot better.