I was just trying to figure out how you could do a real world, scientifically defensible, test. It's tough, because even if I weighed the same as my neighbor (the scrawny lightweight) and we used similar wheels, we ride different routes, over different roads, etc.
This is the only way I could think of doing the test:
1. Build a wheel with half straight spokes, half butted. (Rear would probably be better, that's where most of my broken spokes come from.)
2. True and tension all the spokes on either side to the same tension. (Low end tension is likely to drive failure faster.)
3. Periodically touch up tension to make sure spokes aren't coming loose.
4. Ride lots and note which spokes fail. (This is likely to take a few years!)
5. Give me some credit when you publish the scientific paper that results from all this work.
