cooker

We often discuss the future here - what sort of changes in technology or legislation might facilitate car-free living, and how individual and social choices around car-free living and the role of cars in society versus other options, like public transit or home delivery or telecommuting, might evolve over time.

Some might see these discussions as flights of fancy, the ideas as impractical, unlikely, or wrongheaded. Others may think these threads are a worthwhile incubator of ideas that help us shed outdated notions and participate in the "creative destruction" that is continually remodelling the world, hopefully, at times, for the better.

I've been a participant in BF for 10 years now, and I expect to be for at least another 10 years. I think it would be interesting to record some of our prognostications and speculations here, and revisit the thread from time to time to see how accurately we are foreseeing "the shape of things to come".

I invite participants to either cite other threads where possible future trends relevant to car-free living are being discussed, or make specific predictions in this thread, for archiving and periodic review. I mention 5 year predictions in the thread title, but don't limit yourselves to that.

I'll start.

In five years I predict we will have a lot more driverless rail vehicles, but driverless road vehicles will still not be in regular use.

I predict Amazon flying delivery drones will be in limited use in select rural test areas.

I predict Tesla will be broke, in receivership, or bought and shunted to a minor backseat role in some larger auto company.

The modal share of cycling will have continued to creep up in major North American cities.

More to come...