If your math is correct, than this means aero has quite a significant advantage. I'm a middling sprinter (ok when I was cat 3, not at the front of real cat 1/2 sprints). Giving it a bit of thought and rough calculation, I'd say 25% of my wins in my cycling life were by less than 1/2 a wheel. I've also missed winning and missed podiums by less than 1/2 wheel margin on several occasions. I'm on an aero frame bike, with 50mm deep clinchers (50mm deep tubies for some of my career), so kind of aero, but not killer aero.
To toss in my anecdote:
Deep 58mm carbon wheels were the last of my aero upgrades. And I specifically got them because I had a season in which I had 7-8 different races that I missed out on either a podium or a win by half a wheel or less. I started totaling up prize money lost and realized it was significant enough to try and rectify. Plus I had an aero bike and aero handlebars and latex tubes and everything else on shallow aluminum wheels. Looked ugly and not fast (more important?).
Next season I only lost one sprint, and funnily enough, it was also by half a wheel. But on that day I had to have a front wheel change mid race so was on my aluminum wheel with a butyl tube... Makes me wonder...
Tires and tubes are still most significant for speed, but once you have that, all the aero bits start factoring in as well.