Hopefully you should get there if it's not a cold and windy day!
FWIW, I usually get a 10 minute lap out of closer to 300w... which is 1/3 of the race. Sometimes faster, sometimes not. But that's in regular training garb, no SS or fast wheels etc. If it's a "fast" day, I think you could get there on 250-260 with all those speedy bits.
For the record,
wktmeow and I are similar in size (height/weight).