48x11 is a gear that nobody should use if they value their knees unless they need to keep up with the pro peloton (exaggerating, but only a little). IMO, a touring bike does not need a gear higher than 100 gear inches; yours is around 120", depending on wheel and tire size.
I think all your stated options are viable. Or one cheaper option: replace the 11 with a 12 . That also gets you a friendlier one-tooth step from the highest gear to the next one down, though it may not get your top gear down as far as you would like.
You might want to consider shifting sequence and duplicate gears if you choose to change chainrings. I did not do the arithmetic, but you might get a good step-and-a-half with a good choice of large ring, although you might also need to change the middle ring to meet all your gearing goals.
As for whether this change will make the package more reliable, my answer is "maybe".