Badger6

I don't disagree at all. The problem (or context, really) is that we've been conditioned to JIT logistics for everything, and that works when all of the single points of failure (combined to create a very brittle stem constructed using multiple points of failure) are all simultaneously failing.

Forgive my reductionist rant that follows... For years the maximal efficiency was sold as panacea to everyone- consumers because you can get what you want/need in a very short time, bankers and investors because profits are being maximized since we aren't tying it up in stock, and container shippers because they were getting rich off of renting these things in quantities that would shock someone unfamiliar with their ubiquity. What we all failed to realize or acknowledge was that this efficiency came at a price, it depended on a system that was so streamlined it was brittle. We could see this when a hurricane in the Atlantic, or monsoon in the western Pacific, would disrupt supply chains locally/regionally, what we are seeing now is unprecedented because the disruption is like a hurricane everywhere, all at once!

I am not suggesting (above or now) that we should horde parts, I should have been clearer to explain what I meant by my comment above. I would say depending on how much someone rides they should be planning ahead accordingly for parts purchases. I, for instance, clock between 1500-2000km a month, I wear stuff out regularly, I would have a few more things on my bench than say a person who rides that much over 3-4 months. This is all to say that I think your advice to plan replacement ahead is spot on. I initially bought a few chains and cassettes and some brake pads to have on hand. I am keeping a stick of at least always having one on hand of the things I am wearing through regularly, but I am also being a bit more attentive to what I have so that on a whim I am not ordering things I already have and don't need. I think we all could do that...it's not about the guy in Oregon caring not about the gal in Memphis, it is about thinking ahead, and being a good "neighbor," IMHO.

Badger6

I'm not really sure what this means. But, the one factor common to all the supply chain failures, and which lies at the root of them, COVID. It is causing production slowdowns in the factories where things are made, it is causing work slowdowns in the ports, it is causing issues in the distribution networks after the importation is complete. Oh, and in the wealthy countries, where the consumption that drives all of these industries, are still flush with cash to be spent...and it is being spent. So I guess the other answer is stop buying stuff, that will diminish demand and then these problems would self solve as well...but since that is unlikely, the best answer is getting people in the places where things are made and shipped from, as well as our own people, vaccinated. It's economics, not politics.

SkinGriz

Covid is not causing a slowdown at US ports. US ports are breaking records of cargo movement in 2020 and 2021. QE or the reaction to Covid might cause hiccups. Like vax mandates on truckers, but that’s not the same thing. Or shutting down warehouses and paying extended UI.

It can get a lot worse if you piss off the wrong labor groups. Especially in a time of JIT.

GhostRider62

I can't get your point of view. Why should I care if someone else failed to plan. Not my problem. I stock my planned year of wearable items in the winter. This saves shipping costs and I know I have pretty much everything I need for the year. It is rare that I have to place an emergency order

If I understand what you are saying, my 3 month backorder for some eTap componenets is because people are stocking their cupboards up.

billridesbikes

If your bicycles are purely for recreation you maybe can get away with not having any spare parts and if you have to wait 3-4 weeks for a chain or BB maybe that’s OK. But if your bicycle is your main commuter or grocery getter it only makes sense to have some tubes, a tire or two, a chain, some cables and housing, brake pads, and maybe a bottom bracket on hand. Even without the part shortage you tend to discover these things need to be replaced 8pm on a Sunday night.

Even after COVID I don’t think things are going back to the way it was for manufacturing goods, ever. The future of the underlying assumptions that allowed off-shore manufacturing and frictionless supply chains spanning half the world and multiple countries (a functioning global order, US military and geopolitical hegemony, stable US political culture, and technology as an unalloyed good) are in grave doubt and it will take a while (ie years) for companies to internalize the new reality. COVID just accelerated this, it was already happening.

SkinGriz

Yep. Triffin dilemma. Every reserve currency comes to an end. Every empire decentralized eventually. Cerveza sickness killed the dying.

Covid is endemic and will never go away. Just like influenza.

dwmckee

Well, if you have not figured it out yet, I was way too optimistic in the original title. The bike shortage will extend even into 2023. Many shops are being allocated 50 - 60% of what they wanted to order for 2022, and there definitely will be delivery dates for some models extending out to 2023 believe it or not. I suggest you work with your local sop now to see if the model and size you want has been allocated to them, and if so ask if you can put down a deposit on that bike to claim it as yours when it comes in. And do not be surprised if it gets to the shop 2 - 3 months after the expected delivery date. Please do not take out your frustration on the shop as they simply have no control over the supply chain disruptions that are plaguing the cycling industry. Shimano simply has never been able to catch up with demand, and the other component manufacturers have not been able to fill in the component gap left by Shimano.

Badger6

I figured this was as good as any place to put this…

Write up at Cycling Tips that summarizes a recent podcast with the CEO of SRAM, Ken Lousberg, talking about supply chain woes. Teaser: he thinks there’s light at the end of the tunnel. I won’t spoil it. Take about 5 minutes to read the linked article, or download the Podcast (“Nerd Alert”) episode and take 44 minutes to listen to he whole conversation.

https://cyclingtips.com/2022/01/seei...ith-srams-ceo/

msu2001la

Seeing this thread is always a good reminder to order a few new chains. Wondering if I should throw a cassette or two on there as well. Maybe some cables.

dwmckee

Agreed!

pdlamb

I listened to this a while back, and was disappointed. Mr. Lousberg is doubtless someone who's had some experience with bicycle supply trains, but other than "I think it's going to get better" there's nothing in the podcast to back up his assertion. It's like watching a stock analyst on one of the financial cable channels. "I know this stock has great days ahead of it!" always makes me think they cut off the next sentence, "Unless the bottom's about to fall out!"

The only reason I can imagine for bike supply chains to magically get better in the next 6-8 months is for most potential buyers to hang their bikes up in the garage and go look at new or used cars.

dwmckee

Some good news for a change! Just 8 ships waiting to unload in LA & Long Beach. Lowest in 2 years!

Koyote

Is that why you're having a sale?

black_box 

I've been checking Cannondale's website for the topstone, are these sold out already until spring? Or is it too soon?

dwmckee

Well, a lot has changed since the original post but here is some good news about port backlogs in general, though there still remains some scarcity in bike parts and bike models.

zen_

Definitely still seems to be some parts that are hard to get, but I think we may be entering a phase where there is a glut of complete bikes with recession fears and consumers pulling back on spending / balking at inflated prices. I noticed that bikesonline is already discounting hybrids and hardtail MTBs (probably the highest volume bikes) quite heavily, in some cases probably below 2019 prices.

t2p

some LBS still cannot get certain types of bikes

some distributors still have a shortage of certain components; one example : QBP inventory is very low on GRX stuff (or not avail at all)