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Social distancing on a bike: 6' isn't nearly enough

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Social distancing on a bike: 6' isn't nearly enough

 
Old 04-10-20, 07:41 PM
  #51  
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Most of my rides are solo, but if not they're with my wife. Social distancing is not an issue.

Beaches here are closed. And neighboring counties have close boat launches to non-residents. But no parks or trails have been closed yet,

I see more riders than normal on weekday mornings, but on my rural roads that still only means 4 or 5 might pass by in an hour. Working from home, I'm taking more daytime rides as well.
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Old 04-10-20, 08:01 PM
  #52  
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Originally Posted by willibrord View Post
Okay, we will forget about the numbers and concentrate on what works.
To concentrate on what works, the numbers must be accurate. otherwise, how do we know what works?

The 6 provinces bordering Hubei province(where this started) have about 340 million people. In those provinces, the Chinese government reports there have been a grand total of 5,060 COVID19 cases with 42 deaths and under 40 remaining cases in those provinces.
The US has a similar population(larger), is halfway around the world, and is already showing in excess of 100 times those numbers.


Again- in order to concentrate on what works,, we need to have accurate data.
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Old 04-10-20, 08:04 PM
  #53  
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Originally Posted by rm -rf View Post
No trails for me, either bike trails or even hiking trails.
​​​​​​For what it's worth, hiking trails are considered a major problem here and we've done a lot to shut hiking down. It feels like half our state is Wilderness (big W means as designated by congress) so this shouldn't be a problem. But pretty much everyone wants to be on one of about a dozen trails that are a short drive from the cities, so it winds up being people congregated on this narrow corridor surrounded by things like rivers, preventing any distancing when passing another hiker. Hand rails on bridges are high touch surfaces, and the state considers driving long distances to increase risk of spread at gas stations and because cars require routine maintenance.
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Old 04-10-20, 08:16 PM
  #54  
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Originally Posted by mstateglfr View Post
To concentrate on what works, the numbers must be accurate. otherwise, how do we know what works?

The 6 provinces bordering Hubei province(where this started) have about 340 million people. In those provinces, the Chinese government reports there have been a grand total of 5,060 COVID19 cases with 42 deaths and under 40 remaining cases in those provinces.
The US has a similar population(larger), is halfway around the world, and is already showing in excess of 100 times those numbers.


Again- in order to concentrate on what works,, we need to have accurate data.
So that shows that the extreme lockdown works. Not just 'social distancing' but staying in your residence, getting food delivered and left on your doorstep, not going outside, period.
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Old 04-10-20, 08:19 PM
  #55  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
​​​​​​For what it's worth, hiking trails are considered a major problem here and we've done a lot to shut hiking down. It feels like half our state is Wilderness (big W means as designated by congress) so this shouldn't be a problem. But pretty much everyone wants to be on one of about a dozen trails that are a short drive from the cities, so it winds up being people congregated on this narrow corridor surrounded by things like rivers, preventing any distancing when passing another hiker. Hand rails on bridges are high touch surfaces, and the state considers driving long distances to increase risk of spread at gas stations and because cars require routine maintenance.
A trail with many hikers is just a river for viruses.
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Old 04-10-20, 08:22 PM
  #56  
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Originally Posted by willibrord View Post
So that shows that the extreme lockdown works. Not just 'social distancing' but staying in your residence, getting food delivered and left on your doorstep, not going outside, period.
It does show that, if you think the government is being forthright.
China has revised how it reports its numbers 8 times already.
And it is suspected that the actual death toll in Wuhan is 20x higher than what was reported.
https://time.com/5813628/china-coron...tistics-wuhan/

But you just believe that all the bordering provinces had 100x less cases than the US already has?

Please.so.



Ultimately, I don't disagree that not going outside is the best way to reduce this pandemic. But I do find it dangerously ignorant to cite China's official numbers as proof and support of what should be done.
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Old 04-10-20, 08:30 PM
  #57  
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Originally Posted by mstateglfr View Post
It does show that, if you think the government is being forthright.
China has revised how it reports its numbers 8 times already.
And it is suspected that the actual death toll in Wuhan is 20x higher than what was reported.
https://time.com/5813628/china-coron...tistics-wuhan/

But you just believe that all the bordering provinces had 100x less cases than the US already has?

Please.so.



Ultimately, I don't disagree that not going outside is the best way to reduce this pandemic. But I do find it dangerously ignorant to cite China's official numbers as proof and support of what should be done.
Okay forget about their numbers. I think they are likely not totally accurate, but whose are?

What is relevant is the new cases which are now all from people travelling from outside China. Schools and businesses are re-opening, but not all at once. So no matter what you think of their numbers, their lockdown worked.
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Old 04-10-20, 10:07 PM
  #58  
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Originally Posted by rm -rf View Post
No trails for me, either bike trails or even hiking trails.

This scared me last week: The laser lighted particles emitted even while talking. On the other hand, an epidemiologist interview discussed this, and they said: if these micro droplets that float for hours were a major transmission route, family members would have way more infections within the households than we see. Still, I'm treating any public interactions as if there's a chance of a cloud of virus. Outdoor breezes directed away from both of us is reassuring

I've been riding, but only in pairs or perhaps three riders, with extra care and even wider spacing. And I know these people, they've been quite careful (for what that's worth, though.) The roads are extremely quiet, so it's easy to ride two wide. Any particles are blown backward. It would take a strong wind from the rear quarter to be a problem. Switching to single file, I'm considering wind direction and leaving huge gaps of 30, 50 feet, etc. I feel more comfortable riding in pairs if it's breezy.

The other rider did mention smelling cigarette smoke from a passing car. Or weed. Hmmm. Is even driving a car safe? Air continuously flows out the car's rear vents. Can a driver coughing affect passing cyclists or even other drivers?
Meanwhile on this side of the planet we are packing ourselves into crowded subway trains and buses. (I'm not brave enough to try flying yet though)

I haven't seen anyone die immediately, but I'm sure I will eh?

Just remember, fear of the virus can be more deadly than the virus itself.
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Old 04-11-20, 05:57 AM
  #59  
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micro-droplets! fascinating!
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Old 04-11-20, 06:34 AM
  #60  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
If I say it’s safe to surf this beach, Captain, it’s safe to surf this beach!

LOL! But seriously, they didn't keep the beach open AND ban surfing, did they? That would be a real head scratcher.
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Old 04-11-20, 06:43 AM
  #61  
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Originally Posted by mstateglfr View Post
To concentrate on what works, the numbers must be accurate. otherwise, how do we know what works?

The 6 provinces bordering Hubei province(where this started) have about 340 million people. In those provinces, the Chinese government reports there have been a grand total of 5,060 COVID19 cases with 42 deaths and under 40 remaining cases in those provinces.
The US has a similar population(larger), is halfway around the world, and is already showing in excess of 100 times those numbers.


Again- in order to concentrate on what works,, we need to have accurate data.

I posted before why I think China won't tell us much either way-- a) we really can't trust their numbers and b) their measures of control really require a functioning police state. The information flow and the control measures both occur in the shadows of real fears of getting shot in the head and having your family get billed for the bullet.
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Old 04-11-20, 06:48 AM
  #62  
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Originally Posted by willibrord View Post
Okay forget about their numbers. I think they are likely not totally accurate, but whose are?

What is relevant is the new cases which are now all from people travelling from outside China. Schools and businesses are re-opening, but not all at once. So no matter what you think of their numbers, their lockdown worked.

At most, that remains to be seen. It's quite possible this reopening is going to be disastrous.
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Old 04-11-20, 07:23 AM
  #63  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
I'm still riding my favorite MUP, but it's so sparsely populated right now, maintaining distance isn't a problem. I don't pass on the road until I can fully take the lane right now.

I know this is going to sound like BS, but I started back to riding about a month ago after taking the winter off, and I don't think I've been passed once. I'm a fast fish in a slow pond.
I found a few things interesting here. I live almost perfectly between two MUPs. A couple of miles towards more affluent area (suburbia) is one of the most popular MUPs in the entire region. Once I'm 'up to speed' for the season I generally shy away from it because its a pain navigating all the other users. Early in social distancing I went that direction to mindlessly get a quick ride in and found insanity. You would think there was a charity event in progress. I abandoned that route and a few weeks later the MUP was closed due to overuse. A couple miles towards less affluent area (city), is another very fine MUP that IMO is significantly under utilized. It's not like this is a high crime area. In fact it's probably one of the lower crime areas within the city limits. I'm not really sure why it is so unloved. Even with the crazy popular one shut down there's been minimal up tick in the less loved one. To my benefit, but still something I wonder about at times. Once I am up to speed the city MUP is a connector to the city at large for nearly unlimited route possibilities.
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Old 04-13-20, 11:45 AM
  #64  
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Originally Posted by mstateglfr View Post
It does show that, if you think the government is being forthright.
China has revised how it reports its numbers 8 times already.
And it is suspected that the actual death toll in Wuhan is 20x higher than what was reported.
https://time.com/5813628/china-coron...tistics-wuhan/

But you just believe that all the bordering provinces had 100x less cases than the US already has?

Please.so.



Ultimately, I don't disagree that not going outside is the best way to reduce this pandemic. But I do find it dangerously ignorant to cite China's official numbers as proof and support of what should be done.
Is there anyone here that really believes that China had only 3,341 deaths and 84,317 confirmed cases of the coronavirus? I cannot fathom this is even remotely accurate.
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Old 04-13-20, 12:11 PM
  #65  
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I don't want to downplay anything and encourage everybody to be careful about not distributing the virus. But if cycling close behind others would really make the virus spread fast, there would be a lot more confirmed infections here than the current 300, half of which are with care workers. Not that I don't believe in the micro droplets, but I guess not every micro droplet causes an infection.
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Old 04-13-20, 01:25 PM
  #66  
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Originally Posted by Trooper View Post
Is there anyone here that really believes that China had only 3,341 deaths and 84,317 confirmed cases of the coronavirus? I cannot fathom this is even remotely accurate.
willibrord seems to believe it for multiple replies in this thread. He finally did accept that perhaps the numbers aren't entirely accurate.

I can't imagine people really believing the numbers claimed. same with Iran and North Korea.
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Old 04-13-20, 01:42 PM
  #67  
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Originally Posted by mstateglfr View Post
willibrord seems to believe it for multiple replies in this thread. He finally did accept that perhaps the numbers aren't entirely accurate.

I can't imagine people really believing the numbers claimed. same with Iran and North Korea.
They are not totally accurate, no. Neither are the US numbers.

Suppose they were ten times higher, 30 000 deaths instead of 3000. They have still reduced new cases close to zero.
We need to follow their example, because they have shown how to do it. Even if we don't like them.
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Old 04-13-20, 01:47 PM
  #68  
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Originally Posted by willibrord View Post
They are not totally accurate, no. Neither are the US numbers.

Suppose they were ten times higher, 30 000 deaths instead of 3000. They have still reduced new cases close to zero.
We need to follow their example, because they have shown how to do it. Even if we don't like them.
Again why would you trust their reporting? Why would anyone believe they reduced their new cases close to zero? I speculate that multiples of millions of Chinese citizens have/had the virus and many have died.
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Old 04-13-20, 02:01 PM
  #69  
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Originally Posted by willibrord View Post
They are not totally accurate, no. Neither are the US numbers.

Suppose they were ten times higher, 30 000 deaths instead of 3000. They have still reduced new cases close to zero.
We need to follow their example, because they have shown how to do it. Even if we don't like them.

You do understand that China is a police state, right? How far are you willing to go to follow their example?
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Old 04-13-20, 02:01 PM
  #70  
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Originally Posted by willibrord View Post
We need to follow their example, because they have shown how to do it. Even if we don't like them.
China? We can't. It's flat out impossible in the USA and Europe. Whether we like them or not. Everybody isn't going to stay in their homes for weeks. It can't be enforced on the scale necessary for this.

If everybody on the planet stayed in their homes for a month (or two for large households) the virus would die out. Most people on Earth can't afford to buy a month's food in advance, and enough people wouldn't comply that it just wouldn't work.
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Old 04-13-20, 02:24 PM
  #71  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
China? We can't. It's flat out impossible in the USA and Europe. Whether we like them or not. Everybody isn't going to stay in their homes for weeks. It can't be enforced on the scale necessary for this.

If everybody on the planet stayed in their homes for a month (or two for large households) the virus would die out. Most people on Earth can't afford to buy a month's food in advance, and enough people wouldn't comply that it just wouldn't work.
They had a total 100% lockdown and it worked. We have half-assed social distancing and it sort of works, but not really.

Their economy will be back at full steam in a month or so, and we will be muddling through for the next year or so.
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Old 04-13-20, 03:06 PM
  #72  
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Each of us can only control what we choose to do. What numbers are reported from where is not under our control. Every infestation or death is one more than any of us want. . I am trying to stay put as much as possible, no unnecessary outings. If I go out for a walk or ride, it is somewhere with few others. I have avoided the local MUP-drove thru the road that runs along it one day and the number of people using it at one time was ridiculous--more that I've ever seen-not a space in any parking lot to be found. Social distancing?-impossible there! As a senior, even though in excellent health-no meds, no problems, I'll still be cautious, even if the gov't says it's cool for things to open up again. I intend to be around and healthy for a good while longer. This virus spreads like a multi-marketing scheme, so we all need to be cautious, even if we see others who seem to be having more fun by interacting once it's said it's cool. Those of us who remain cautious will be the ones having more fun in the long run, and I plan to be here in the long run. Hope you're there to enjoy it with us!
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Old 04-13-20, 03:17 PM
  #73  
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Originally Posted by 2manybikes View Post
The latest on the coronavirus pandemic.

The rule is now familiar, if not utterly routine, for anyone who has ventured outdoors in the middle of the pandemic: Whether walking the dog, buying groceries, or taking out the trash, you should stay more than six feet apart to contain the novel coronavirus.

But anyone who goes outside to exercise may need to keep an even greater distance from other runners and joggers, a new European study says, in order to properly practice social distancing.

Researchers at KU Leuven in Belgium and the Eindhoven University of Technology in the Netherlands found that someone infected with the virus could pass on respiratory droplets to people more than six feet behind them through a kind of vacuum they form as they cut through the air.

“When you are moving — running, cycling, walking — you are actually creating an area behind you that is often called a slipstream,” Bert Blocken, who coordinated the study, told the Brussels Times.

Athletes often use these slipstreams to run or bike at a higher speed, Blocken said

According to a series of simulations run by his team, a jogger moving at about 2.5 miles per hour was likely to come into contact with the slipstream, and thus, the droplets, of someone exercising as much as 50 feet ahead.

The study suggests that runners and cyclists may want to avoid moving directly behind another person and falling into their slipstream, Blocken said, by moving side by side or by in a staggered formation.

When such a formation is unavoidable on narrow paths or sidewalks, those seeking an outdoor workout should stay at least 15 feet apart when walking, 33 feet when running or cycling slowly and 65 feet apart for more vigorous exercise, he told the Globe and Mail.
Went out this morning on my first bike ride in a couple of months. Encountered at least a couple of runners, a few dog walkers, people just out taking a leisurely walk. You know...the "usual suspects".

Whenever I came upon someone, even tho the bike lane is a good 6 ft. from the sidewalk in most places, I made it a point to move to the middle (or far side) of the street, pending traffic (of which there really wasn't much because it was 6:30AM anyways) to maximize my distance. Abt 1/3 of my route would normally include a MUT/MUP, but knowing the lack of spacing and close quarters that occur, I'm avoiding that like the plague...or, at least, like a virus Even with that, some of the runners are out in the street forcing me to move even farther to the other side. Overall, not such a big thing. Still am able to get my miles in.
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Old 04-14-20, 05:04 AM
  #74  
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Originally Posted by Stadjer View Post
I don't want to downplay anything and encourage everybody to be careful about not distributing the virus. But if cycling close behind others would really make the virus spread fast, there would be a lot more confirmed infections here than the current 300, half of which are with care workers. Not that I don't believe in the micro droplets, but I guess not every micro droplet causes an infection.
I agree. If it was transmitted that easy there would be a lot more sick people that what there has been. Listen to the media, and everyone is going to die if they don't stay locked in their homes. You can find any belief you want on the internet.
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Old 04-16-20, 05:00 PM
  #75  
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20 meters not 6 feet should be used to avoid aerosol/particulate exhalation.
from:
"Towards aerodynamically equivalent COVID‐19 1.5m social distancing for walking and running"
Questions and Answers from https://www.urbanphysics.net/Questions_and_Answers.pdf
"When there is substantial cross‐wind,the suggestion to stay out of the slipstream remains valid.
This means that it is advised to not walk/run/cycle directly behind others but offset to the upwind side.
When overtaking a person, be kind to this person and only when you have reached a certain distance from this person
(5m when this person is walking,10m for running,up to 20 m for cycling),
move back on the same straight line as this person."

Last edited by bikebikebike; 04-17-20 at 05:48 AM.
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