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Heads Up. The bike shortage will be through most of the 2021 season

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Heads Up. The bike shortage will be through most of the 2021 season

Old 03-22-21, 06:31 AM
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Originally Posted by cordawg92 View Post
Do you guys think itís worth waiting it out for an LBS to get more stock? Or pay the premium and buy second hand priced closed to MRSP?
I would NOT be buying used bikes at a premium right now. I think it is very much worth waiting. Bikes are trickling in.
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Old 03-22-21, 11:57 AM
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Originally Posted by cordawg92 View Post
Do you guys think itís worth waiting it out for an LBS to get more stock? Or pay the premium and buy second hand priced closed to MRSP?
Having the original owner's warranty if you're going to drop some $$$ is a really "nice to have" feature of buying new and paying the premium of buying new vs. used. Personally, if a used bike is anything greater than 70% of MSRP I don't even consider it.

If you're that desperate, it's your money. But if you've weathered the storm this long regarding buying a new bike, what's another 6-8 months?
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Old 03-22-21, 02:11 PM
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New pic of Port of LA.
About 27 visibly waiting as of yesterday from this vantage point. These hold between 5000 and 15000 TEUs(twenty foot unit containers) and the larger can hold even more. Figure 10000TEUs as an average, which results in about 5000 40' containers(the super common container size).
So 135000 containers are sitting there waiting to dock.

Reality is that there are almost 2x as many waiting per a local update at the port yesterday.

135,000 visible 40' containers and almost 2x as many in total. Bit of a bottleneck.

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Old 03-22-21, 02:26 PM
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What's the 'insider' view on availability throughout 2021 on components, tires, accessories and clothing?

I've been in shops where people want to buy a bike and it's much as the same as reported here. I wasn't as sure about whether things like tires, chains and cassettes, gloves, shorts, etc., are also sold out already? I would guess that components that go on bikes may be, but other things maybe not.
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Old 03-22-21, 05:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Noonievut View Post
What's the 'insider' view on availability throughout 2021 on components, tires, accessories and clothing?

I've been in shops where people want to buy a bike and it's much as the same as reported here. I wasn't as sure about whether things like tires, chains and cassettes, gloves, shorts, etc., are also sold out already? I would guess that components that go on bikes may be, but other things maybe not.
Bike clothing is not too bad as there is still excess capacity for apaprel manufacturing since noone buys clothes anymore. Apparel saled were down 25% in 2020. There is still that port bottleneck in getting it to the store but that is just a matter of waiting. Any parts that are used to manufactre a new bike are scarce on the open market and any parts like pumps that migt be made by a bike component manufacturer are a little scarce but availale. Don't hold your breath for a GRX DI2 at liquidation pricing on ebay.. Higher-end tires more available because they are not speced for many new bikes. Higher end bikes are somewhat available, but the lower the price the more scarce it is.
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Old 03-22-21, 06:33 PM
  #81  
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Bikes: Co-Motion Cappuccino Tandem,'88 Bob Jackson Touring, Co-Motion Cascadia Touring, Open U.P., Ritchie Titanium Breakaway, Frances Cycles SmallHaul cargo bike. Those are the permanent ones; others wander in and out of the stable occasionally as well.

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Originally Posted by cordawg92 View Post
Do you guys think itís worth waiting it out for an LBS to get more stock? Or pay the premium and buy second hand priced closed to MRSP?
You are going to get lots of opinions on this but the answer really is "it depends." There are a lot of barely used bikes out there and some demos that have been ridden but still are eligible for warranty. There are over priced bikes too. And there likely will be significant price increases (yet again) on 2022 bikes, so "it depends." Can you wait, etc.? We have a Salsa Warbird DI2 Ultegra that is a demo with full warranty selling for 10% off list and it has less than 100 miles on it, so practically new and the new version that replaces it is several undred dollars more. Look at each deal individually for what you think is reasonable, and make your decision that way.
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Old 03-22-21, 08:11 PM
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Originally Posted by softreset View Post
Having the original owner's warranty if you're going to drop some $$$ is a really "nice to have" feature of buying new and paying the premium of buying new vs. used. Personally, if a used bike is anything greater than 70% of MSRP I don't even consider it.

If you're that desperate, it's your money. But if you've weathered the storm this long regarding buying a new bike, what's another 6-8 months?
Yeah what you're saying makes sense. I actually have a deposit on a Trek FX3 Disc right now which is set to arrive in May. I'm just waiting to see if there is something more in a similar budget will come up in the Gravel Bike category (Revolt 2, Topstone Sora, etc...)
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Old 03-22-21, 10:31 PM
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Originally Posted by cordawg92 View Post
Yeah what you're saying makes sense. I actually have a deposit on a Trek FX3 Disc right now which is set to arrive in May. I'm just waiting to see if there is something more in a similar budget will come up in the Gravel Bike category (Revolt 2, Topstone Sora, etc...)
Makes sense, absolutely continue to be looking. I've seen some great deals come up and some eye rolls. It's sometimes a combination of timing, luck, and desperation (from a seller).

dwmckee's comment about used but still qualified bikes from dealers is worth exploring. My experience has been that typically only the higher end bikes show up in that category as they go from showroom demos to for sale.
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Old 03-23-21, 08:00 AM
  #84  
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Originally Posted by softreset View Post
Makes sense, absolutely continue to be looking. I've seen some great deals come up and some eye rolls. It's sometimes a combination of timing, luck, and desperation (from a seller).

dwmckee's comment about used but still qualified bikes from dealers is worth exploring. My experience has been that typically only the higher end bikes show up in that category as they go from showroom demos to for sale.

Could be tough right now as most sellers are taking advantage of knowledge that most people received a stimulus and are itching to make use of it.
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Old 03-25-21, 05:21 PM
  #85  
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Bikes: Co-Motion Cappuccino Tandem,'88 Bob Jackson Touring, Co-Motion Cascadia Touring, Open U.P., Ritchie Titanium Breakaway, Frances Cycles SmallHaul cargo bike. Those are the permanent ones; others wander in and out of the stable occasionally as well.

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And if you still think it is lazy manufacturers:

A fly in the ointment.Egyptian authorities are engaged in a complicated effort to dislodge the giant container ship that is blocking all traffic on one of the world’s busiest shipping arteries. A group of tugboats and a dredger were working at the Suez Canal to dig out the Ever Given, the WSJ’s Costas Paris reports, as a growing backup of ships waited to transit the 120-mile waterway and businesses projected the fallout could last for days. The incident added a new pressure point in global supply chains that are already under strain, and highlighted a choke point that handles a large share of goods trade between Asia and Europe and a tenth of the world’s seaborne oil trade. An Evergreen Marine spokesperson said the ship was probably hit by strong winds, which would make a container ship with capacity for 20,000 containers more difficult to steer in the narrow waterway.
  • The blockage of the canal is already driving up oil prices, the WSJ reports, and executives say it will likely add delays and extra costs to already pressured logistics operations.

Global manufacturing supply chains are facing new strains as prices for raw materials soar while factories wait longer for goods to arrive. The challenges are growing even as factory output recovers faster than expected, the WSJ’s Paul Hannon reports, creating a lopsided rebound that could founder as manufacturers struggle to keep pace with resurgent demand. Manufacturers in most countries are reporting lengthening delivery times for materials and parts, as well as increasing backlogs they themselves have yet to complete. In the U.S., there are signs that shortages are already squeezing factories, with output in a purchasing managers’ survey rising at the slowest pace in five months, in part because of a lack of raw materials, while new orders rose at the fastest pace in almost seven years. Data firm IHS Markit says U.S. executives also report the most severe supply disruptions in records dating back to 2007.

Some big shippers are looking harder at their distribution strategies amid bottlenecks in U.S. domestic supply chains. Dollar General’s response to the mounting cost and capacity pressures is to step up its reliance on an in-house trucking fleet, the WSJ’s Matt Grossman reports, as the discount retailer looks for greater certainty in transportation operations following heavy volatility. Dollar General had been moving in that direction with programs such as its DG Fresh operation, which aims to have more of its refrigerated goods delivered by the company’s own trucks. But the rising logistics costs following robust demand during the pandemic is accelerating efficiency efforts. Freight marketplace provider DAT Solutions says rates on the truckload spot market have been pushing to historic highs. The average per-mile rate for dry-van transport on the spot market so far this month was up 31 cents, or 13.1%, from January.

Coffee supplies in the U.S. are shrinking and
wholesale prices are surging because of global shipping disruptions. (Bloomberg)

Delays at New Zealand’s
Port of Auckland have become a “multi-million dollar problem” for importers. (The Loadstar)
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Old 03-25-21, 06:37 PM
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Originally Posted by dwmckee View Post

Coffee supplies in the U.S. are shrinking and wholesale prices are surging because of global shipping disruptions. (Bloomberg)
Say what now?! Okay, you have my attention.
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Old 03-26-21, 10:54 AM
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Oh god... not the coffee!
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Old 03-26-21, 12:14 PM
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Coffee...Oil... Bicycles....If they don't get that unstuck soon... nobody will get their bikes. Prices will go up regardless of what happens.
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Old 03-27-21, 09:19 PM
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I hope there isn't any beer on there too!
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Old 03-28-21, 08:00 AM
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China does not ship things to the USA via the Suez canal. They go east across the Pacific.
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Old 03-28-21, 08:09 AM
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Originally Posted by dwmckee View Post
I hope there isn't any beer on there too!
Lots of good microbreweries right here in PA, though!
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Old 03-28-21, 08:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Cpn_Dunsel View Post
China does not ship things to the USA via the Suez canal. They go east across the Pacific.
There are quite a few people on here that aren't from the U.S. And someone's Canyon might be on there.

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Old 03-28-21, 10:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Cpn_Dunsel View Post
China does not ship things to the USA via the Suez canal. They go east across the Pacific.
Could be for us (me) on the west coast. But there are a lot of bikes that seem to come in on the east coast and then are ordered and delivered to the west.. Probably will affect Europe first. I don't understand why they saying shortage of coffee, as I thought most of ours comes from South America. Whatever is happening, it's a reason to raise prices to everyone. You got stimulus money, Pandemic Unemployment money, rental assistance, small business help... it's time to give it back. Bendover.
First time in 150 years a ship has been stuck in that canal.... hmmmmmmm.

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Old 03-28-21, 11:28 AM
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Bikes get to the east coast of the USA by way of the Pacific and the Panama canal or by rail from western ports. With regards to coffee, it is still Columbia and Brazil that are the largest source for N America coffee supplies so I agree on that point to some degree. Indonesia and Vietnam are 4th and 5th. The top two make up more than 50% of the market but a lot of the boujie blends come from Asia.

Right now there are already a lot of ships sitting in US harbors that are waiting for stevedores to unload. That is the largest bottleneck in the overall supply chain right now.

There are many goods that come to US through the Suez so it will have lasting impact on US markets.

As for the ship getting stuck, I think natural phenomena explains what happened pretty well and a larger conspiracy seems unlikely. These super large vessels have not been around for so long so that 150 year span is a bit misleading.

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Old 03-28-21, 01:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Cpn_Dunsel View Post
China does not ship things to the USA via the Suez canal. They go east across the Pacific.
Those four hundred+ ships tied up in the canal do not just go back and forth between Europe and China. They can have other commitments all over the world after they drop their cargo (or part of it) in Rotterdam or Stockholm so global schedules are impacted. This issue truly is affecting global trade when these ships are multiple days late on their routes. Supply chains are now fully golbal. A container ship of bauxite ore in the canal enroute from China to Iceland for example for to be processed into raw aluminum by the cheap smelters of Iceland could impact things made out of that aluminum billet 9 months later. We will be feeling some impacts of this in the US for many months to come.

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Old 03-29-21, 07:58 AM
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Originally Posted by dwmckee View Post
Those four hundred+ ships tied up in the canal do not just go back and forth between Europe and China. They can have other commitments all over the world after they drop their cargo (or part of it) in Rotterdam or Stockholm so global schedules are impacted. This issue truly is affecting global trade when these ships are multiple days late on their routes. Supply chains are now fully golbal. A container ship of bauxite ore in the canal enroute from China to Iceland for example for to be processed into raw aluminum by the cheap smelters of Iceland could impact things made out of that aluminum billet 9 months later. We will be feeling some impacts of this in the US for many months to come.

Let me restates then: China does not ship finished goods and products to the USA through the Suez canal. My comments are narrow cast and directed at the idea that there are bikes on that ship coming to America. There are not.

As for raw materials: Bauxite ore is not shipped in containers such as the ones on the Ever Given vessel. Bauxite has specific rules and regulations for shipping because there are a lot of hazards and dangers unique to that specific resource. Bauxite cannot be simply put into a container and set to sea.

Yes, this fiasco is a setback to global shipping and will reverberate across all economies. But this event has very little impact on global bicycle shipments.

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Old 03-29-21, 08:12 AM
  #97  
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I get daily market updates on the status of various transportation modes of service due to my job(global transportation logistics) and this thread is making me smile for multiple reasons.
Carry on.
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Old 03-29-21, 08:26 AM
  #98  
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Originally Posted by mstateglfr View Post
I get daily market updates on the status of various transportation modes of service due to my job(global transportation logistics) and this thread is making me smile for multiple reasons.Carry on.
Wait until everyone on here realizes you know where our bike parts are. Who will be smiling then?
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Old 03-29-21, 08:52 AM
  #99  
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Originally Posted by unterhausen View Post
Wait until everyone on here realizes you know where our bike parts are. Who will be smiling then?
Ha, at that point I will claim they are with the cabal managed human trafficking ship that was just freed from the Suez and (most)everyone will dismiss me as crazy.

In all seriousness, I am continually surprised that global supply chains have run as well as they do when you consider all they are up against, geopolitically speaking.
Random crazy governments imposing import/export restrictions for specific countries as a flex of power, cultural differences that make it difficult to source finished goods at needed quality levels, random crazy governments reducing access to needed raw materials as a flex of power, Nationalist pride blinding people to not see the benefits of being part of a larger trade network(Brexit), random crazy governments hording shipping containers to disrupt trade and flex their power, etc.
And that doesnt even address the domestic challenges we face right now of an over the road driver shortage, port worker shortage, LTL warehouse shortage, and more.
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Old 03-29-21, 06:10 PM
  #100  
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Originally Posted by Cpn_Dunsel View Post
As for raw materials: Bauxite ore is not shipped in containers such as the ones on the Ever Given vessel. Bauxite has specific rules and regulations for shipping because there are a lot of hazards and dangers unique to that specific resource. Bauxite cannot be simply put into a container and set to sea.
About 70% of the ships thal travel the Suez Canal are in fact bulk carriers that carry iron ore, fuel oil, ammonium nitrate and bauxite heaaded to Iceland. The plentiful and cheap hydroelectric power there makes aluminum smelting their biggest industry. You are correct that bauxite is not shipped in 40-foot containers, it is in the bellies of those bulk carriers! But we digress from our main point; the shipping delays there will, in a roundabout way further aggravate our bike shortages here.
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