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Impact of Pandemic on Racing

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Impact of Pandemic on Racing

Old 10-09-20, 09:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Flatballer View Post
We're already at 200k+ and that's without counting excess mortality (probably around 300k by now), and with at least a lot of people taking precautions.
....
For those in the serious racing demographic we are looking at 3 digit numbers in the USA who have died with COVID and I'd expect they do not have the respiratory systems those that race do. I have yet to hear of a competitive cyclist that has died. I think it maybe is only an issue for officials for racing during the "pandemic".

CDC specifies 200K die WITH COVID. CDC reports 6% have only COVID - 12,000 died FROM COVID in 8 months. They also report there are 3.6 conditions for the average death.


Last edited by Doge; 10-09-20 at 10:33 PM.
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Old 10-09-20, 10:14 PM
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Originally Posted by TMonk View Post
It would be great if we could play nice in here and avoid overtly politicized statements and personal insults/attacks. Let's try to stick to discussions regarding the pandemic as it applies to racing please. Otherwise, there is a separate COVID and P&R sub forum.
Calling this a pandemic is a stretch, although it is in the title. At the peak, COVID represented 20% of what folks died from in the USA (45 year olds and 85+ had the same ratios). Now it is close to 2% of the deaths are found with COVID while those deaths still have a reported average 3.6 conditions.
USACycling and city's canceling racing is political, you cannot avoid that. The racing itself is the most dangerous part.

Rides (Como) now have kits for sale and prize money for finishes. This is mostly a non threat to the cycling community except for views outside of cycling, so it is hard to avoid such discussion.

Last edited by Doge; 10-09-20 at 10:34 PM.
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Old 10-09-20, 11:09 PM
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It is hard to avoid, I'll give you that. While many have written off 2021 and I'm not super optimistic about it, I am looking forward to training hard again and improving my fitness. Force of habit I suppose.

Maybe they'll start doing some TT's first hopefully? I've been enjoying getting more into that over time.
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Old 10-10-20, 07:56 AM
  #429  
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Originally Posted by Doge View Post
For those in the serious racing demographic we are looking at 3 digit numbers in the USA who have died with COVID and I'd expect they do not have the respiratory systems those that race do. I have yet to hear of a competitive cyclist that has died. I think it maybe is only an issue for officials for racing during the "pandemic".

CDC specifies 200K die WITH COVID. CDC reports 6% have only COVID - 12,000 died FROM COVID in 8 months. They also report there are 3.6 conditions for the average death.

Please continue to educate me about how epidemiological stats work.

TMonk sorry dude, there's zero part of me that's not going to call out someone wishing their kid had covid as a beacon of good parenting and also zero part of me that's going to read this kind of misrepresentation about how disease stats work without calling it out.

This thread went from opining about the season going the way it did and talking about the future and ways it might be done safely to flat out whataboutism real quick.

Kill it with fire.

Originally Posted by Doge View Post
Calling this a pandemic is a stretch, although it is in the title. At the peak, COVID represented 20% of what folks died from in the USA (45 year olds and 85+ had the same ratios). Now it is close to 2% of the deaths are found with COVID while those deaths still have a reported average 3.6 conditions.USACycling and city's canceling racing is political, you cannot avoid that. The racing itself is the most dangerous part. Rides (Como) now have kits for sale and prize money for finishes. This is mostly a non threat to the cycling community except for views outside of cycling, so it is hard to avoid such discussion.
Translation: I've been reading about this from places that confirm my view on the internet and now I know more than those who do this as a day job. I don't want to talk about the bungling of the pandemic response in this country at the onset because I just want to focus on how inconvenient this is to me now.
Also this is not any worse than the flu.
Also also I don't understand how disease statistics work.

​​​​​​​There, fixed that for ya!

Last edited by ridethecliche; 10-10-20 at 08:01 AM.
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Old 10-10-20, 09:20 AM
  #430  
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https://www.velonews.com/events/giro...-for-covid-19/
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Old 10-10-20, 10:57 AM
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Oh snap. Two Brits and favorites out already.
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Old 10-10-20, 12:05 PM
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Originally Posted by ridethecliche View Post
Please continue to educate me about how epidemiological stats work
Those of us who study infectious diseases (you from practical first-hand experience, me from the lab) have had a rough time keeping our mouths shut lately. This spring I was sort of excited because I thought my students were going to ace the virology and epidemiology portions of their exams because they were living it and random people on the street suddenly were interested in stuff I've thought was cool for the last couple decades, but it quickly turned into a whole lot of people who suddenly were mansplaining things to me based on a blog post they read. About the same time I took on a grad student who my wife calls the living embodiment of the Dunning-Kruger because he keeps trying to explain how he shouldn't follow my directions for experiments I've been doing for 20 years and he's only heard me explain to him.
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Old 10-10-20, 12:22 PM
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I did my epidemiological work on facebook.
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Old 10-10-20, 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted by ridethecliche View Post
Please continue to educate me about how epidemiological stats work.

TMonk sorry dude, there's zero part of me that's not going to call out someone wishing their kid had covid as a beacon of good parenting and also zero part of me that's going to read this kind of misrepresentation about how disease stats work without calling it out.

This thread went from opining about the season going the way it did and talking about the future and ways it might be done safely to flat out whataboutism real quick.

Kill it with fire.



Translation: I've been reading about this from places that confirm my view on the internet and now I know more than those who do this as a day job. I don't want to talk about the bungling of the pandemic response in this country at the onset because I just want to focus on how inconvenient this is to me now.
Also this is not any worse than the flu.
Also also I don't understand how disease statistics work.
I made this picture below for you. 1 in a million chance of death for his profile. A very fit healthy 22 year old.
It is true, this is not my profession. It is part of my wife's (50% or so the last 6 month's) so I get some discussion at home about it. Here is the data from the CDC - and the URL so you can find it. I did crop out other age groups and genders.

If you have different data, or know this is wrong, please point to it. That death number comes with "1Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1"
You saw above CDC posted 6% have only COVID-19 - I used 10% to be more conservative.

2 weeks ago the pro racers in this profile lined up in front of my house with masks on and pieces of tape on the pavement about 10' a part. It was silly.


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Old 10-10-20, 12:47 PM
  #435  
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Originally Posted by TMonk View Post
It is hard to avoid, I'll give you that. While many have written off 2021 and I'm not super optimistic about it, I am looking forward to training hard again and improving my fitness. Force of habit I suppose.

Maybe they'll start doing some TT's first hopefully? I've been enjoying getting more into that over time.
The issue is more cities permitting races than USACycling. Back in the day bike clubs needed to put on races. I got to help a bit with that. We were all happy when promoters took it over, but that also took it farther from the racers. As I live in smaller cities 50K and 4K it is common to know the folks running and planning and it is increasingly difficult to get permits. It was difficult before. San Clemente Closed Beaches, and filled skate parks with sand (two blocks from a former crit course). So it is unlikely they would permit a thing. The (MTB) race that was in front of my house in Manitou Springs was in a park, then dirt roads and then unincorporated area, so I expect much easier to to than an on pavement road race.
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Old 10-10-20, 02:27 PM
  #436  
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You're going to have to drastically cut down the death rate for flu if deaths while there is a comorbidity (even if that comorbidity didn't result in death) don't count.

If you get attacked by a bear, go to the hospital, lose massive amounts of blood, and then end up dying of a heart attack because low blood level stresses out your heart, are you seriously not going to say that the bear was the proximal cause of death even if you actually died of a heart attack?
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Old 10-10-20, 08:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Doge View Post
I made this picture below for you. 1 in a million chance of death for his profile. A very fit healthy 22 year old.
It is true, this is not my profession. It is part of my wife's (50% or so the last 6 month's) so I get some discussion at home about it. Here is the data from the CDC - and the URL so you can find it. I did crop out other age groups and genders.

If you have different data, or know this is wrong, please point to it. That death number comes with "1Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD10 code U07.1"
You saw above CDC posted 6% have only COVID-19 - I used 10% to be more conservative.

2 weeks ago the pro racers in this profile lined up in front of my house with masks on and pieces of tape on the pavement about 10' a part. It was silly.


Yes, except this is my profession.

​​No further comment necessary.

Kthxbai.

Ps: math is hard and you suck at it.
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Old 10-10-20, 10:20 PM
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Originally Posted by ridethecliche View Post
Yes, except this is my profession.

​​No further comment necessary.

Kthxbai.

Ps: math is hard and you suck at it.
Is the CDC data wrong, or my sixth grade arithmetic? As a professional, you can tell us where the error is.

And why should 24 year old racers need to stage 10' apart with masks on?

Last edited by Doge; 10-10-20 at 10:38 PM.
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Old 10-11-20, 05:44 AM
  #439  
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What's with the focus on death as the sole outcome of interest? I see trolls on the local newspaper board using that (mainly to say that the teachers' union is using the pandemic as an excuse to not go to work in person). We have yet to know about the long term effects of the illness, as anecdotally people continue to be affected after they are technically better. I suppose some are ok with the potential of an entire generation of kids being permanently limited by an illness? I'm not ok with that risk. Heck I'm 40 and if I would be devastated if I could no longer ride bikes the way I'm used to. So yeah, death as the only outcome is misguided.
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Old 10-11-20, 06:12 AM
  #440  
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Originally Posted by Doge View Post
Is the CDC data wrong, or my sixth grade arithmetic? As a professional, you can tell us where the error is.

And why should 24 year old racers need to stage 10' apart with masks on?
The cdc data isn't wrong, it's just a major error in logic to assume that, if covid isn't the only thing on the death certificate (and politics may play a role in what gets put there), that it isn't the true cause of death and individuals would still have died without it. If someone were to do the same analysis for the flu, they would find an even lower percentage of deaths where the flu was the only factor that contributed to death. Also, have you seen the data about cadiomyopathy (that's permanent) in young athletes who get it? That'd be scaring the **** out of me if I were the parent of a young athlete.
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Old 10-11-20, 09:07 AM
  #441  
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Originally Posted by himespau View Post
The cdc data isn't wrong, it's just a major error in logic to assume that, if covid isn't the only thing on the death certificate (and politics may play a role in what gets put there), that it isn't the true cause of death and individuals would still have died without it. If someone were to do the same analysis for the flu, they would find an even lower percentage of deaths where the flu was the only factor that contributed to death. Also, have you seen the data about cadiomyopathy (that's permanent) in young athletes who get it? That'd be scaring the **** out of me if I were the parent of a young athlete.
Cardiomyopathy, question of permanent lung scarring, recent developments of so called 'long haul syndrome', etc. I don't know why people want to express such e-expertise on something we know so little about, especially regarding long term outcomes.

The best part is that the vast majority of these so called 'draconian' measures would have largely been unnecessary if there had been a coordinated response and if masks weren't seen as some sort of threat to freedom.

Regardless, there are plenty of places where people that actually want to know more about the nature of the illness can direct their attention and read: NEJM, JAMA, and the lancet being some good examples.

Isaac Asimov said it far more eloquently than I could ever hope to so I'll just leave his words from 1980 here:
"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way throughout political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”"
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Old 10-11-20, 09:11 AM
  #442  
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Originally Posted by ridethecliche View Post
Isaac Asimov said it far more eloquently than I could ever hope to so I'll just leave his words from 1980 here:
"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way throughout political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."
Love that quote.
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Old 10-11-20, 11:52 AM
  #443  
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Originally Posted by himespau View Post
The cdc data isn't wrong, it's just a major error in logic to assume that, if covid isn't the only thing on the death certificate (and politics may play a role in what gets put there), that it isn't the true cause of death and individuals would still have died without it. If someone were to do the same analysis for the flu, they would find an even lower percentage of deaths where the flu was the only factor that contributed to death. Also, have you seen the data about cadiomyopathy (that's permanent) in young athletes who get it? That'd be scaring the **** out of me if I were the parent of a young athlete.
For the cycling athlete in their low 20s it is an assumption that are not carrying those 3.6 average condition. I would think they are carrying about none. It is hard to compete with any condition that might also be a contributor to death.
I admit I do think the P/1 cyclist in the low 20s is in that group that most likely has no other conditions. They are easily within the top 10% of their age group in health.

Our experience was that when competing as a teen and maintaining super low body composition he'd get sick too much. He'd get sick maybe 2-3 times a year and of course those were not recorded statistics. In the case of COVID leanness is not a liability for death.
He was faster when healthy, but it really messed up a few of his Euro trips. It was also a reason to stop cycling being that if you are fit enough to win, you are more susceptible to getting sick. You have to cut the social life, and being around people etc.
But that is what competitive cyclists need to do. True older ones likely have a bit more fat and resistance.
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Old 10-11-20, 01:28 PM
  #444  
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