Predictions about upcoming new bike tech
#102
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-ABS is in the works already, should be norm on hydro discs within 15 years
-Shimano keeps trickling Di2 a bit more. I feel electronic shifting to facilitate at least cheaper bike assembly and reduce other parts cost possible once the patents wear off and costs plummet like they should. I mean, if you can get hvac actuators for $65 for your house a freaking derailleur should be cake also. It's just a patent and marketing thing now.
-Road tubeless becoming the norm once they really nail the standard.
-Probably UCI illegal, but in triathlon I see "active aero" becoming a thing. Helmets or other bike tech like wheels where the fairings can move with the yaw angle of the wind.
-More combined helmet tech with integrated lighting of some kind that you plug in to recharge. Already here, but becoming the norm on all instead of a few.
-Shimano keeps trickling Di2 a bit more. I feel electronic shifting to facilitate at least cheaper bike assembly and reduce other parts cost possible once the patents wear off and costs plummet like they should. I mean, if you can get hvac actuators for $65 for your house a freaking derailleur should be cake also. It's just a patent and marketing thing now.
-Road tubeless becoming the norm once they really nail the standard.
-Probably UCI illegal, but in triathlon I see "active aero" becoming a thing. Helmets or other bike tech like wheels where the fairings can move with the yaw angle of the wind.
-More combined helmet tech with integrated lighting of some kind that you plug in to recharge. Already here, but becoming the norm on all instead of a few.
#103
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more durable tubes with no penalties.
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#104
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Analog bikes will continue to follow the fad and bust of the latest bike type.
E bikes will get more complicated. All the gadgets you’re imagining will come to pass and then get cheaper. They will diverge to a parallel dealer network and e bike specific brands and components though they will maintain corporate association with bike brands since that’s their origin and they’ve still got more in common with bikes than motorcycles. (By which I mean they’re still made of parts from bike companies.) This will continue as long as licenses are not required. If the current industry learns the lessons of the moped fad they’ll keep the power low.
The main styles of e bikes will be long travel mountain bikes and commuter bikes. People who want power to achieve their goals. Baloney like drop bar road e bikes will fade.
E bikes will get more complicated. All the gadgets you’re imagining will come to pass and then get cheaper. They will diverge to a parallel dealer network and e bike specific brands and components though they will maintain corporate association with bike brands since that’s their origin and they’ve still got more in common with bikes than motorcycles. (By which I mean they’re still made of parts from bike companies.) This will continue as long as licenses are not required. If the current industry learns the lessons of the moped fad they’ll keep the power low.
The main styles of e bikes will be long travel mountain bikes and commuter bikes. People who want power to achieve their goals. Baloney like drop bar road e bikes will fade.
Last edited by Darth Lefty; 10-16-21 at 12:29 AM.
#105
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Antilock brakes happened in the 1960s. Yes, there are analog ways to do that. Dropped because the concept was plain wrong. Which won’t matter once the marketing machinery cranks up.
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Basically, it violates the planned-obsolescence principle. How can they make you buy a new 13 speed shifters if the old shifter and derailleurs can work just fine with the new cassette?
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ABS by the way is absolutely a given for e bikes. It’s a mystery to me why it’s not already here especially on commuter e bikes. It’s proliferated on motorcycles, even small ones, where it’s not amazingly complicated and expensive, it’s just a $500 option, a dingus between the front caliper and lever and sensors that watch marks on the rotors. It prevents crashes. It’s not like a car where it just keeps you pointed straight and reduces distance. If you lock up the front tire of a bike in panic you are going to crash, either OTB or low side. If you have ABS you get all the braking the chassis can manage without crashing just by pulling the lever as hard as you can.
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#108
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#110
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Gearing has definitely gotten lower over the last 10-20 years, at least for normal non-professional racing bikes. My first road bike (2003) had a 53/39 with an 8sp 11-25 cassette. I recall this gearing being pretty standard on most road bikes in that era and it's probably the same gearing that pro racers were running. Back then, a "compact" climbing setup would've been a 50/34 and/ an 11-28.
Today most 11sp race oriented road bikes are sold with 50/34 cranks and 11-30 rear cassettes. The pros are still running 52-53T front rings, but there seems to be some acknowledgement that most recreational riders do not need this tall of gearing. The increased cassette sizes also mean that 11-34 is a fairly common option for standard 11sp groupsets.
I was surprised to see the new 12sp Ultegra only available in 52/36 and 50/34 options. I thought for sure they'd have a lower version, but I guess Shimano sees GRX as filling that market. GRX is currently available as a 48/31 or 46/30, so plenty of low end gearing available there. SRAM's AXS "Wide" currently has a 43/30 with a 10-36 cassette, so this is getting pretty close to what you suggest above (40/28 and 10-40 cassette).
Today most 11sp race oriented road bikes are sold with 50/34 cranks and 11-30 rear cassettes. The pros are still running 52-53T front rings, but there seems to be some acknowledgement that most recreational riders do not need this tall of gearing. The increased cassette sizes also mean that 11-34 is a fairly common option for standard 11sp groupsets.
I was surprised to see the new 12sp Ultegra only available in 52/36 and 50/34 options. I thought for sure they'd have a lower version, but I guess Shimano sees GRX as filling that market. GRX is currently available as a 48/31 or 46/30, so plenty of low end gearing available there. SRAM's AXS "Wide" currently has a 43/30 with a 10-36 cassette, so this is getting pretty close to what you suggest above (40/28 and 10-40 cassette).
I have a hunch manufacturers will come to their senses. Even with 30 front 34 rear, you are still turning nearly 24 inches. That may be fine for smooth gravel, but if you find yourself on a rougher patch (which steeper parts of gravel roads and trails often are) the average rider will appreciate gearing that gets down to the 20" mark. So will riders on moderate grades when they are deep into a ride and tired. So will tourists.
They'll tout the "new" gearing options as groundbreaking for the "regular" rider.
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prediction for upcoming new tech....
OBD2 standards for electronics that are equipped as production or an add-on by the OEM/certified bicycle retailer. Soon after, a subscription-based communications system (onstar) will be rolled out.
"Help! I've fallen & can't get muah e-bicycle off me!"
OBD2 standards for electronics that are equipped as production or an add-on by the OEM/certified bicycle retailer. Soon after, a subscription-based communications system (onstar) will be rolled out.
"Help! I've fallen & can't get muah e-bicycle off me!"
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#112
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prediction for upcoming new tech....
OBD2 standards for electronics that are equipped as production or an add-on by the OEM/certified bicycle retailer. Soon after, a subscription-based communications system (onstar) will be rolled out.
"Help! I've fallen & can't get muah e-bicycle off me!"
OBD2 standards for electronics that are equipped as production or an add-on by the OEM/certified bicycle retailer. Soon after, a subscription-based communications system (onstar) will be rolled out.
"Help! I've fallen & can't get muah e-bicycle off me!"
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#113
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I predict more and more OEM-sourced parts on bikes (and with that will come proprietary designs). It's already happening to some extent, but I think that in the future we (consumers will not have the ability to upgrade things like stems, seat posts, seats or handlebars unless it's a design made specifically for that bike (and therefore licensed by that manufacturer). These designs will continue to become more integrated into the frame and overall bike design.
This might extend to electronics as well. Rather than an aftermarket Garmin or Wahoo head unit attached to handlebars, bikes might come with an integrated screen built into the handlebar/stem design that connects to a smartphone and built-in wheel/cadence/power sensors on the bike.
I do also wonder if the era of being able to easily customize a bike by selecting a frameset, wheels, components, finishing kit, seat and handlebars all from various manufacturers may eventually come to an end, especially the designs of these parts become more integrated into the frame design. It's getting increasingly hard to find top tier bikes with standard seat posts, for instance. Companies like Specialized have already done this with wheels, seats, etc - will they take it a step further and develop their own S-works drivetrains? Will companies like this always rely on SRAM and Shimano to provide parts for their flagship products?
This might extend to electronics as well. Rather than an aftermarket Garmin or Wahoo head unit attached to handlebars, bikes might come with an integrated screen built into the handlebar/stem design that connects to a smartphone and built-in wheel/cadence/power sensors on the bike.
I do also wonder if the era of being able to easily customize a bike by selecting a frameset, wheels, components, finishing kit, seat and handlebars all from various manufacturers may eventually come to an end, especially the designs of these parts become more integrated into the frame design. It's getting increasingly hard to find top tier bikes with standard seat posts, for instance. Companies like Specialized have already done this with wheels, seats, etc - will they take it a step further and develop their own S-works drivetrains? Will companies like this always rely on SRAM and Shimano to provide parts for their flagship products?
#114
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What's wrong with me? I'm prefectly happy with my bike (which was new in 2007) and don't really want anything to change.
I am an out of it, dull-witted clod.
So be it (and if you know who I just quoted I will be pleased).
I am an out of it, dull-witted clod.
So be it (and if you know who I just quoted I will be pleased).
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I’m not looking to start a debate about the pros and cons of specific novel features or of bike evolution generally. I’m just imagining what a state of the art bicycle might look like ten years from now, whether we feel good, bad, or indifferent about it.
Here’s what I think is coming (along with my prediction on each feature’s likelihood):
- (Very likely) Anti-lock brakes. Should be easy enough with everything going to hydraulic discs. You just need to add some wheel speed sensors, a computer, a little valve and motor on each caliper, and a power source. This might not be a totally pointless feature. Many will argue it’s a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist--perhaps that’s true. Regardless, I will be surprised if it does not appear in the next several years.
- (Probable) Tire pressure monitoring system. Also quite simple; would follow from technology used on cars for many years. They just need to develop smaller and lighter pressure sensor/transmitter units (probably located on the valve stem), and some software for the cycling computers/smart phones. You’ll never have to wonder how many PSI each tire has, or worry that you might not know when a tire suddenly begins to deflate.
- (Absolutely certain) Smaller, lighter, and more efficient motors for e-bikes. Plus smaller, lighter, and longer lasting batteries as well. Perhaps there will be solar charging on the bike (even something like photovoltaic paint, so the entire frame is effectively a solar panel?) And regenerative braking, so instead of working hard to build up kinetic energy and then throwing it away as friction, you could recover some of that energy to put back into the battery when slowing or stopping.
- (Possibly?) Rear-view camera and cockpit display (probably integrated with the cycling computer, which is already becoming more of a multi-functional display). Garmin Varia radar already gives an audible and visual indication, but it only shows that there is a vehicle (or two or more vehicles) approaching, with a relative indication of their distance and speed. A camera will let the rider remain facing forward and see a lot more detail. Is it a dump truck that’s weaving all over the road and flinging dirt and rocks everywhere? Just a Mini Cooper two lanes to the left? Technology to do this already exists and would just have to be refined/adapted for bikes.
- (Hopefully) Much better bike locks. Better = lighter and smaller but also tougher to defeat, while not becoming outrageously expensive. It seems like lock technology has not progressed very much in the past several decades. There have been little, incremental improvements, but a determined thief can still defeat any lock without much effort. I’d like to see high tech materials change this situation, so that the limiting factor will become “how strong is the structure you’re locking your bike to?”
What do you folks think? What predictions would you add to the list?
Here’s what I think is coming (along with my prediction on each feature’s likelihood):
- (Very likely) Anti-lock brakes. Should be easy enough with everything going to hydraulic discs. You just need to add some wheel speed sensors, a computer, a little valve and motor on each caliper, and a power source. This might not be a totally pointless feature. Many will argue it’s a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist--perhaps that’s true. Regardless, I will be surprised if it does not appear in the next several years.
- (Probable) Tire pressure monitoring system. Also quite simple; would follow from technology used on cars for many years. They just need to develop smaller and lighter pressure sensor/transmitter units (probably located on the valve stem), and some software for the cycling computers/smart phones. You’ll never have to wonder how many PSI each tire has, or worry that you might not know when a tire suddenly begins to deflate.
- (Absolutely certain) Smaller, lighter, and more efficient motors for e-bikes. Plus smaller, lighter, and longer lasting batteries as well. Perhaps there will be solar charging on the bike (even something like photovoltaic paint, so the entire frame is effectively a solar panel?) And regenerative braking, so instead of working hard to build up kinetic energy and then throwing it away as friction, you could recover some of that energy to put back into the battery when slowing or stopping.
- (Possibly?) Rear-view camera and cockpit display (probably integrated with the cycling computer, which is already becoming more of a multi-functional display). Garmin Varia radar already gives an audible and visual indication, but it only shows that there is a vehicle (or two or more vehicles) approaching, with a relative indication of their distance and speed. A camera will let the rider remain facing forward and see a lot more detail. Is it a dump truck that’s weaving all over the road and flinging dirt and rocks everywhere? Just a Mini Cooper two lanes to the left? Technology to do this already exists and would just have to be refined/adapted for bikes.
- (Hopefully) Much better bike locks. Better = lighter and smaller but also tougher to defeat, while not becoming outrageously expensive. It seems like lock technology has not progressed very much in the past several decades. There have been little, incremental improvements, but a determined thief can still defeat any lock without much effort. I’d like to see high tech materials change this situation, so that the limiting factor will become “how strong is the structure you’re locking your bike to?”
What do you folks think? What predictions would you add to the list?
My prediction - better clothing solutions. Biking is plagued by a warm up period where layers of clothes are needed followed by a plateau where less clothing is needed. I foresee a time where clothing will incorporate a cooling system that takes air in, circulates it across your body and exhausts the moist air. I will have automatic vents to increase or decrease the flow to maintain body temp and moisture level. Second product - toe clips that sense speed and automatically release at slow speed. Third product is radar to warn of impending impact (with a moving car). Last product is a street sweeper attachment for a bike to allow you to clean bike lanes as you ride. My experience is cities do a sh*tty job of maintaining bike lanes. With a street sweeper for a bike you could ride the route sweeping once every couple months and keep it clear.
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#116
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Front facing pothole avoidance radar with proprietary servo actuators embedded in the head tube to gently nudge the front wheel around the hole. It will be controlled by a head unit that will also take data from a rear facing Varia or similar competing device to calculate the amount of swerve necessary without pointing the rider directly in front of that garbage truck that is so anxious to pass.
#117
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Third product is radar to warn of impending impact (with a moving car). Last product is a street sweeper attachment for a bike to allow you to clean bike lanes as you ride. My experience is cities do a sh*tty job of maintaining bike lanes. With a street sweeper for a bike you could ride the route sweeping once every couple months and keep it clear.
Also shouldn't the bike lane sweeper be parked at public works' garage, and not in your own?
Both of these suggestions are a bit dystopian and depressing.
#118
Junior Member
A state of the art bicycle is a velomobile. Even bicycles are better if recumbent and partly streamlined. I really hope that we will have components designed for trikes instead of adapted from bicycles. A rear derailleur should look much like a front one, with the chain take-up handled by a separate mechanism that also helps with chain routing and allows much more variation, so we can use big, efficient chainwheels. Being enclosed, it can be cheap and ugly without hurting performance. It should probably include an oil bath, and keep it off the rider. Wheels should be dished like car wheels to make more room for both brakes and suspension. Tires should be radial-belted. Pedals should automatically adjust to grip any shoe and support your heel.
#119
Junior Member
Re-edited - my revision attempt crashed.
A state of the art bicycle is a velomobile. Even bicycles are better if recumbent and partly streamlined. I really hope that we will have components designed for trikes instead of adapted from bicycles. A rear derailleur should work much like a front one, with the chain take-up handled by a separate mechanism that also helps with chain routing and allows much more variation, so we can use big, efficient chainwheels. Being enclosed, it can be cheap and ugly without hurting performance. It should probably include an oil bath, and keep it off the rider. Wheels should be dished like car wheels to make more room for both brakes and suspension and reduce weight. All three should be quick-change and identical, so a spare can be carried. Tires should be radial-belted, but skinny, with excellent suspension. Pedals should automatically adjust to grip any shoe and support your heel. The electric boosters should go on the front wheels for 3WD. There may be solar panels that extend when parked. Protection might be primarily electronic, requiring thieves to start by deploying a Faraday cage, unseen. Models should be available with enclosed luggage space/child seats. Design sketches, more details, and other support is available for all of these features.
A state of the art bicycle is a velomobile. Even bicycles are better if recumbent and partly streamlined. I really hope that we will have components designed for trikes instead of adapted from bicycles. A rear derailleur should work much like a front one, with the chain take-up handled by a separate mechanism that also helps with chain routing and allows much more variation, so we can use big, efficient chainwheels. Being enclosed, it can be cheap and ugly without hurting performance. It should probably include an oil bath, and keep it off the rider. Wheels should be dished like car wheels to make more room for both brakes and suspension and reduce weight. All three should be quick-change and identical, so a spare can be carried. Tires should be radial-belted, but skinny, with excellent suspension. Pedals should automatically adjust to grip any shoe and support your heel. The electric boosters should go on the front wheels for 3WD. There may be solar panels that extend when parked. Protection might be primarily electronic, requiring thieves to start by deploying a Faraday cage, unseen. Models should be available with enclosed luggage space/child seats. Design sketches, more details, and other support is available for all of these features.
#120
Newbie
In addition to the integrated pressure sensor, an integrated air pump in the hub directly connected to the tire and actuated through the brake.
If the sensor detects a pressure drop, the next time you brake, it switches in the pressure generator in the hub which assists in braking and uses the energy to pump up the tire.
This might even be an ideal accessory for cobble racing (e.g. Paris Roubaix): drop tire pressure on the cobbles and reinflate just before getting back on asphalt.
In most cases there is a corner at the junction to the asphalt where you need to brake, so why not use this wasted energy to reinflate the tire.
There will be no additional friction in the hub when the pump element is inactive and the energy loss by having an additional weight is easily saved by improved efficiency on the asphalt and the added bonus that you dont have to stop at the most inconvenient space or time when a service vehicle if away or cant get to you
If the sensor detects a pressure drop, the next time you brake, it switches in the pressure generator in the hub which assists in braking and uses the energy to pump up the tire.
This might even be an ideal accessory for cobble racing (e.g. Paris Roubaix): drop tire pressure on the cobbles and reinflate just before getting back on asphalt.
In most cases there is a corner at the junction to the asphalt where you need to brake, so why not use this wasted energy to reinflate the tire.
There will be no additional friction in the hub when the pump element is inactive and the energy loss by having an additional weight is easily saved by improved efficiency on the asphalt and the added bonus that you dont have to stop at the most inconvenient space or time when a service vehicle if away or cant get to you
#121
Newbie
Forgot to mention :
Integrated GPS (hard mounted) and mobile tracking for anti theft measure
Integrated lock front and rear
Integrated GPS (hard mounted) and mobile tracking for anti theft measure
Integrated lock front and rear
#122
Newbie
Front facing pothole avoidance radar with proprietary servo actuators embedded in the head tube to gently nudge the front wheel around the hole. It will be controlled by a head unit that will also take data from a rear facing Varia or similar competing device to calculate the amount of swerve necessary without pointing the rider directly in front of that garbage truck that is so anxious to pass.
#123
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Re-edited - my revision attempt crashed.
A state of the art bicycle is a velomobile. Even bicycles are better if recumbent and partly streamlined. I really hope that we will have components designed for trikes instead of adapted from bicycles. A rear derailleur should work much like a front one, with the chain take-up handled by a separate mechanism that also helps with chain routing and allows much more variation, so we can use big, efficient chainwheels. Being enclosed, it can be cheap and ugly without hurting performance. It should probably include an oil bath, and keep it off the rider. Wheels should be dished like car wheels to make more room for both brakes and suspension and reduce weight. All three should be quick-change and identical, so a spare can be carried. Tires should be radial-belted, but skinny, with excellent suspension. Pedals should automatically adjust to grip any shoe and support your heel. The electric boosters should go on the front wheels for 3WD. There may be solar panels that extend when parked. Protection might be primarily electronic, requiring thieves to start by deploying a Faraday cage, unseen. Models should be available with enclosed luggage space/child seats. Design sketches, more details, and other support is available for all of these features.
A state of the art bicycle is a velomobile. Even bicycles are better if recumbent and partly streamlined. I really hope that we will have components designed for trikes instead of adapted from bicycles. A rear derailleur should work much like a front one, with the chain take-up handled by a separate mechanism that also helps with chain routing and allows much more variation, so we can use big, efficient chainwheels. Being enclosed, it can be cheap and ugly without hurting performance. It should probably include an oil bath, and keep it off the rider. Wheels should be dished like car wheels to make more room for both brakes and suspension and reduce weight. All three should be quick-change and identical, so a spare can be carried. Tires should be radial-belted, but skinny, with excellent suspension. Pedals should automatically adjust to grip any shoe and support your heel. The electric boosters should go on the front wheels for 3WD. There may be solar panels that extend when parked. Protection might be primarily electronic, requiring thieves to start by deploying a Faraday cage, unseen. Models should be available with enclosed luggage space/child seats. Design sketches, more details, and other support is available for all of these features.
#124
Junior Member
It is on a continuum with a 3-wheeled electric car, but by starting with a bicycle, we wind up with something that carries more than it weighs, instead of the typical ten times less. With pedelec control, we retain all the motivation and benefits of exercise integrated into our day. Riding becomes safe and practical for many people with limited road options. Parking becomes far less expensive and more convenient. Some people will be able to drive right into their houses to unload and recharge, and stand their ride up to minimize the footprint.
#125
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@TricycleTom, I'd like to see one of those .... pretty freaking heavy and complex, and also expensive. The reason bikes can be (Can be) affordable is because they are simple. When you have the first prototype, we can have a much longer discussion.