Doge

I do not think Pogacar will better Remco in the TdF next year. Of course saying that befor we have seen Remco finish a 3 week tour and 3 weeks is long.
I do not understand why I hear (maybe just my wife) that he's a classic rider and not cut out for GTs. He's 22 with great stage race results.

@22 he has already knocked himself out at least a season+ with recovery and you could argue his retiring from the Giro was still a recovery ride.

He could retire now with a better record than most. Data pasted from ProCyclingStats indicates we should not really be surprised.
His 2018 junior results had 4 of 4 stage race wins.
Remco Evenepoel (procyclingstats.com)

It was not as an adult pro at age 19 he could win an adult stage race - he won two.
2020 he won 4 of 4 and DNF'd due to the pelvic fracture in Aug (2 years ago)
The 2021 Giro he could not finish and DNS stage 18 < 1 year after. He then won the next two stage races and a couple single day races. He didn't start stage 5 of Benelux Tour.

2022 All the stage races
2nd Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana (2.Pro)
1st Volta ao Algarve em Bicicleta (2.Pro)
11th Tirreno-Adriatico (2.UWT)
4th Itzulia Basque Country (2.UWT)
1st (May 29) Tour of Norway (2.Pro)
11th Tour de Suisse (2.UWT)

diphthong

we'll see how the second half of la vuelta goes. when you make it look this easy, you invite certain unfavorable comparisons.

Doge

Which ones?

MinnMan

I don't think you are being deliberately obtuse, but nonetheless, ooga-pooga's point is pretty obvious.

But I'm tired of many of these things that we return to again and again. Apart from the doping chatter, I'm tired of the Merckx comparisons every time somebody new and great emerges. It was just a few months ago that WvA was the new Merckx. Now we're ready to start the Remco is Eddie thing?

We could create s simple flow chart:''

someone does something awesome

Is he a doper? (Yes/N0)

if No, is he the next Eddie Merckx.....

As they say, that train is never late.

Doge

I simply looked at the actual results (a few years ago). Who has results like his? Crashes count. So who?
I'm not an EM hatter, or fan. I do think sanctions need to be part of the formula, as injuries. -1 (or 3) EM, +1 RE.

The win results by this kid are not matched that I can see by anyone at this age.
Of course, not everyone races everything so we will have to wait till next year.

I'm happy to predict he will better the other kid in the TdF next year and type casting him as a classics rider is a mistake.

Agree or not?

OBoile

I really don't think anyone should be surprised by what happened yesterday. Remco has always had a monster TT and he was generally predicted, from day 1, to win that stage.
What should be surprising is how well he's climbing. But even that needs to be taken with a bit of a grain of salt. The only elite GC rider he's up against is Roglic, and he's likely not 100%.

slcbob

I hope WADA monitors this thread because the astute original analysis would no doubt help them mitigate the enormous blind spots in their cavalier monitoring program.

diphthong

stage twelve...is jay going for stage win three? are we getting another rider to step up? tgh? ayuso? carapaz? almeida? battistella?

diphthong

going with ayuso for stage twelve for today's horrible prediction.

slcbob

I'll add the weight of my pick to the baggage Soler has to haul up that hill.

Shadco 

Looks like my man Bou didn’t make the break.



.

MinnMan

Evenepoel gave a preview of his climbing prowess this spring in stage 3 of Tour of Norway. See Lanterne Rouge's video review here, complete with estimated power numbers * As a bonus, it's notable that the only guy who came even close to keeping up was Vine. This stage was an excellent peek at what was to come in the Vuelta, 3 months later.

* I dont think Evenepoel actually posted his numbers for this climb, but Vine did and LR used those to estimate Evenepoel's

slcbob

It still stuns me that Vines entered the top levels of the sport through the Zwift academy, just a few years ago.

OBoile

I remember watching that video (and the race). While it certainly indicated potential, it was just one stage. It's quite another thing to be able to do that consistently for three weeks (to be fair, the three weeks aren't up yet) in varying conditions against elite competition.
For example, Vine got dropped pretty quickly on the final climb yesterday IIRC. Remco has managed to consistently be the strongest climber in the race which I don't think very many people expected at the beginning of the Vuelta.

Doge

That he is not really trying to show right now (days since ITT) because of the course, or he is sitting on a lead, shows some signs of maturity or good race radio communication with his director.
I think he is riding like a more mature rider and not grabbing for things that do not matter.

slcbob

Evenepoel was born this century. He's still maturing almost 5% a year chronologically, and 33% a year WorldTourically.

OBoile

Well... things just got interesting.

GrainBrain

Craddock going YOLO is what the Vuelta is all about

OBoile

Looking like the last week should be pretty competitive of the GC. IMO, if Remco's issues are due to his crash, he's probably going to be fine as he was better today than yesterday and he gets several more days before he can be really challenged again. If is issues are general fitness and fatigue related, then he could be in trouble.

diphthong

something tells me ayuso is going to go on either (or both) stage(s) 19 and/or 20. young, impetuous and seemingly in form. almeida is semi-nearby and will move up a few spots on the gc if ayuso detonates the gc race. uae has him under contract for a spell. take that ferrari out to the desert and red-line it. give him carte blanche. see what that ferrari can do.

diphthong

was shocked shocked!!! to see mas but in a substantial dig on stage 15. can we hope to see more of the same in the last week?

slcbob

Oh my. Rough paraphrase of Kirby as Roglic crosses the line: "every time he reaches out to grab hold of the race it slips like sand through his fingers."

GrainBrain

Ugh how'd that even?

I was half watching and wondering who that JV rider could be when I saw them go down.

Great win by Mads!

slcbob

On immediate post-race coverage:
1) I was disappointed that the GCN trio didn't handily downplay the initial results with Roglic in red as provisional and pending the corrections of the 3k rule.
2) However, I was glad to hear Adam Blythe say basically "that tire doesn't look flat." He could have done it without all the "now I'm not saying..." nonsense, but it is just what I was thinking. Although I'm not saying...

I haven't seen anything in the coverage since then about the pseudo-mechanical.

Fingers crossed for Roglic. He's a hard man, but I think the challenge he was going to mount over the next few days just lost a ton of steam.

gpsblake

Roglic when asked what day of the week it was after his crossed the finishing line responded "potatoes", and they said close enough.

Never seen anyone cross-eyed and out of it like Roglic was after that crash today. Hope he can continue.