Wspsux

To add to anecdotal freight rate stories. My rates have increased about 300% per container.

SkinGriz

Crack up boom?

dwmckee

That is about the reported average increase across the industry. And you cannot get containers right now to load either.

And most folks do not realize that there is still a 25% import tariff on bikes from China shich certainly affects the net price we pay for a new bike here in the US. I think a lot of folks are going to have sticker shock when the 2022 bikes start appearing in the bike shops. When you add in Tariffs, high freight costs, raw material price escalation, Shimano parts shortages, persistent scarcity and high demand for bikes, the price increases will be very significant.
.

msu2001la

I bought a set of Zipp 303s a few weeks ago (shortly after discovering the insane lead times on Chris King hubs...).
They will arrive mid-October but I've since seen a few other shops advertise that they have recently received shipments from Zipp and Enve and have lots of wheels in-stock.

Some of this probably depends on how aggressively shops are anticipating and buying stock ahead of time. I certainly don't blame shops for being a bit cautious on loading up on inventory though, especially on higher end stuff.

Noonievut

I called around to 5-10 shops the other day asking for a specific type of seat post. Some said “sorry we have nothing and can’t get anything soon”, some said “on brand x estimate is Sep, brand y Oct”, and so on, one shop said they have some coming in next week, and another shop contacted the supplier and is getting one next business day. Most if not all have access to the same suppliers...maybe it’s the connections the shop has, but something tells me there are shops who get it, and many that don’t.

Caliwild

I agree that some shops are more proactive when it comes to preordering stuff while others just sit and wait. I just finished building up a bike and most local shops told me they have nothing. I finally found a shop that actually had a decent amount of Shimano GRX in stock, as well as Campy Ekar. I still had to supplement some items by purchasing online to finish the build but they had most of what I needed. Shops that took the risk and ordered ahead of time are getting rewarded...

ThermionicScott 

Or some shops are more optimistic than others, and really want your business when the stuff finally arrives.

softreset

My local shop delivered a bike to a customer yesterday that was ordered on August 3rd (of 2020). Another customer ordered that same bike (size, model & color), 3 weeks ago and it was also delivered to them yesterday. Yet, my buddy (who ordered a bike in mid-March) of this year, is still being told: "Fall 2022"

So it's really all over the place and there's zero consistency or formula. I got the impression from my friends that work at my local store that for a little while some distributors/manufacturers were playing favorites and prioritizing stores based on a variety of factors, such as how much annual volume, or how long they had been a dealer, etc. But then I heard that transitioned to bargaining. "We'll give you this order now in exchange for that order getting delayed an extra month." Stuff like that.

mstateglfr 

fall of 22? what bike shop bike is so unique and coveted that an 18 month is worth it? I get it, there is a shortage, but there are still bikes being sold every day that surely must be comparable...right?

dwmckee

With this shortage, as in most, the distribution of scarce resources is anything but random and never seen as fair by the people at the bottom of the list. You can be absolutely certain that bikes are not getting to dealers on a first-ordered, first-delivered basis.

unterhausen

My LBS stocked one brand at fairly low levels so they are resigned they aren't getting any until much later. I'm sure some shops are better at scrambling for stock than others.

softreset

It was Checkpoint ALR 5, I don't recall the color but it was a 56cm. He called 5 shops within 250 miles and they all quoted "mid to late 2022."

mstateglfr 

he must really have his heart set on that specific bike. Even in a shortage I would think there would be comparably spec'd bikes with similar geometry available in less time. But if he is good with it, then perfect.

PNWgarageDad

The checkpoint ALR 5 was the bike I wanted! I could not find it anywhere. So, I decided on the Giant revolt advanced 3 , they are in the same price range.

dwmckee

I'd go for the Revolt first!

softreset

Nearest Giant shop is 300 miles away and the shop he ordered from he's being doing business with since '98.

SkinGriz

Halfway teasing about crack up boom.

Everyday every rail line is busy, busy, busy on the Alameda corridor. Double stacked trains as far as you can see. I couldn’t count all the box boats sitting outside the breakwater, waiting for an open pier.

msu2001la

Trek Checkpoint ALR5 = one of the most popular bike brand's most popular bikes - equipped with the most popular level of groupset build.

This is probably one of the hardest bikes to buy in the US right now. It does not surprise me to hear that some/most LBS's are waiving the white flag on that one and just quoting insanely long lead times. They're probably tired of dealing with pissed off customers who were given estimates of 3-6 months, 9 months ago and are still waiting.

dwmckee

Here is some info on how the virus has affected computer chip production in Malaysia. While this is not bike parts, remember that many (most?) of Shimano's components pass through Malaysia either as a sub assembly or final part and are subject to the same challenges..

Shimano announced that they finally are UP TO 60% capacity in Malaysia a month or two ago. They are nowhere near caught up enough to supply bike manufacturers with the parts they need right now to build the bikes they will be selling next season. The complete bike and bike parts supply probably will not be anything close to what we think of as "normal" well into 2022 and maybe beyond that.

dwmckee

Well. I guess it has to get worse before it gets better. There are about 60 ships waiting to unload off the coast in Southern California and 25 on the way there. If you took the containers waiting on the water and put them all on a single train, it would stretch over 2,000 miles, well over half the way across the country. And that is just the SoCal ports. Steel is at record high prices and raw aluminum is at the highest price per pound since 2008 and still climbing. Some bike brands have raised prices twice already for 2022 models and they are not even shipped yet.


Pretty much every ship out there is still burning bunker fuel to keep systems running while they wait so it likely is contributing to more LA smog as well.

Badger6

I was recently involved in some analysis of global logistics as it pertains to my day job. Two takeaways from the work: (1) the reports are 100% accurate, and (2) the long term forecasts you can read in a news article grossly undershoot the problem. I'd venture a well informed guess to say that the supply chain issues, if nothing is changed, will likely continue for at least 24 more months...I hope I am wrong because it is already causing serious economic effects, and they aren't login to improve if stuff can't be made and moved.

The "nothing is changed" means vaccinating the rest of the world (not US or Europe) continuing at the currently slow pace and there are no further outbreaks like the Delta variant. Sounds funny, but if we want this supply chain issue resolved, getting people vaxxed in Asia (meaning outside of ROK and JPN) and Africa is the key.

What does this mean to us bikey people? I take it to mean that the way we have learned to think about buying bicycles and bicycle parts, using a Just In Time mentality (because the industry and supply chains enabled it) will have to change if we are intending to buy a new bike or keep our bikes in good repair. Think ahead to buying your next bike, and be patient (I've heard that 4-6 months is about the right timeframe for a new bike in many cases, and not just the high end stuff). Also, stock up on wear items, cassettes, chains, brake pads, tires. I'm sure the folks who work in the industry might have a different take, my assessment is based solely on other work analyzing the global logistics network that literally everything that crossing an ocean depends on for movement.

SkinGriz

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BBFCpH...ature=youtu.be

SkinGriz

No end in sight for can bottlenecks.
LA/LB broke their record in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021. So the port was already working at capacity.

And getting the world their Rona Vax easing supply issues is Pravda. They’re already producing. If they weren’t producing you would have spare capacity at US ports.

dwmckee

This makes things worse unfortunately when scarce parts are stowed away in numerous cupboards everywhere unused when they are in great demand and unavailable to folks that need them somewhere else. A more efficient solution is to pay attention to parts that are near but not at the end of their service live and order them a month or so before you plan to replace them. That saves your wallet a bit and makes a more efficient supply chain for all. We just have to get out of the recent mindset that everything is available on a moment's notice, we have to plan a bit ahead for our needs. While this goes on we can not expect to wear tires to failure and have a new set of exactly what you want from FedEx the next day..

mstateglfr 

A person in Oregon ith an extra cassette waiting to be used doesnt care that someone in Memphis needs a cassette. We dont have an economy where we self ration on hobbies, so asking for thst to suddenly begin is a big ask.