PdalPowr

I think it is possible the differing here is not over whether technological advancements can help the enviroment but whether it will help us.

The answer to any question is rarely the technology itself but our willingness to use it.

Stick69

There has been a recent rash of people stopping on the causeway to watch the evening murmurations. At least self driving cars would not be susceptible to the looky-loo syndrome.

Saale

If people wanted to create more walkable or bikeable cities they could do it right now. "We're waiting for driverless cars" is just a lazy excuse to continue your lazy lifestyle, and driverless cars won't change a thing about it once they're here. You don't cure an alcoholic with self-driving alcohol.

Chuckie J.

I think the closest thing we have now to driverless cars is something like Uber/Lyft. I use them but almost exclusively for things like going to the airport and while traveling in another city while visiting/working. In both cases the bike is either not present or not suitable.

As @cooker said in post #3, having the hidden costs of car ownership presented in an individual trip bill might make one think twice about using the service that day. There will be lots of folks who will own their own driverless car. Imagine what kind of relief it will be for a parent who normally takes their kids to after-school sports and other activities.

It's an interesting question, for sure. I'm curious how it will play out.

Dahon.Steve

The driver-less car will not be inexpensive. People think once Uber cars become driver-less, transportation will be just as inexpensive as a city bus. However, I noticed the estimate for an 8 mile trip using Uber cost between 13-17 dollars! The city bus charges 2.55 to make the same trip. There's no way I'm going to spend 26-34 dollars each day for transport.

I'm sure self driving cars will bring down cost further but the only thing it will do is bankrupt the taxi industry. There's no way they can charge less than the city bus unless drivers are willing to lose money on each fare.

However, I'm thinking it just might be possible to match the city bus IF it becomes a self driving jitney van that can pick up multiple passengers!

Mobile 155

Just another thought or point of view. I for one would pay more to ride privately than with a group.

Will said Jitney come to the customer on call and to multiple locations? Because the driver-less car will pick you up where you are and take you to where you want when you want. You wouldn't have to stand outside a bus stop waiting for the next bus coming in 20 minutes that will drop you five blocks from where you want to go. Will the Bus come get you at 12:11 am to leave a restaurant and take you to your front door as directly and as few stops as if you have a car? People are willing to pay to do what they want when they want. To me the reason people like microwaves is because they want water heated in 45 seconds, popcorn in 2 minutes and mac and cheese heated in 2.5 minutes. Same with transportation. That is one reason Planes killed Passenger trains in the US to go from state to state. (IMHO) Food for thought.

Rollfast

It's all irrelevant when your city has a huge budget deficit and threatens to cut out anything of help then offers the city manager a raise (which he refused because he was smarter than 5/7 of the city council and the mayor).

jon c. 

I would expect something along those lines will be one of the earlier uses of the technology.

tandempower

I think technology can vastly multiply the options, if it's developed to its full potential. E.g. you could have different shuttle vans guided by different algorithms with trade-offs between price and how close it drops you off relative to your destination. The algorithm would need to be able to plot various routes through a series of destinations people would enter with their phones. Then, you would have several ride prices quoted to you along with the walking-distance to your destination. So, for instance, you could choose a $3 fare where you have to walk an extra mile or a $6 fare where you only have to walk a half mile, or a $9 fare that drops you off half a block from your destination.

jon c. 

I think jitney type services and private taxi type services in major urban areas will come along first. It will be a bit longer before driverless cars will pick you up wherever your are. I'd agree that the majority of people in most of the nation would prefer private transport, so the initial use of driverless multi passenger transport will be likely be in areas where people are already taking multi-passenger transport. At least in the near term, I think such vehicles will be incorporating into existing transportation modalities. It will be much longer, if ever, before they significantly alter our current transportation patterns.

Maelochs

When tandempower steers clear of eucalyptus ... s/he really gets it. *(No offense intended, I don't know and don't really care about your gender.)

First off, self-driving cars compete with taxis, not buses. And as Tandem notes, people have imagination. There will be everything from guys on tandem electric motorcycles (popular in some countries) and rickshaws to driverless Ubers to minivans of all variety ... wherever there is a niche someone will try to start a business.

If there are people who want a bus from a neighborhood to a part of the city ... some enterprising person will offer a service for a fee. There might be guys in the city who rent electric bikes or Segways or share-a-ride minicars ... and some of the minivans might drop passengers there.

Some people will live in places where a full-sized bus wouldn't be economical but a self-drive minvan might work. or maybe an electric rickshaw with a super-cheap sheet-plastic enclosure---just enough to keep the rain and dust off the passengers, who would still wear weather-appropriate clothes, and walk to and from the pickup and drop-off points.

The reason we see gasoline rickshaws in many cities around the world is that our roads and our laws and our city planning has all revolved around the car since after WWI or so. A four-foot wide electric-pedal rickshaw might take up a whole bike lane ... but there aren't serious bike lanes in enough places. That can change.

If we look at other countries with very different economies ... all kinds of options out there.

I-Like-To-Bike

Really? Where? Besides the alternate reality of imagination and dreams?

cooker

I have an out of town recurring gov't contract and I can bill the client (the taxpayers) for a limo to the airport, but I often take public transit to the downtown airport, or a combo of transit bus and express train to the bigger airport, depending on which one I am flying out of. My colleagues who do similar trips are mixed - some use the limos and some do as I do. Occasionally I will take a limo home from the big airport if I land late in the evening.

Last time I came home, I took the express train from the airport to the urban station nearest my house, and it was rush hour and the bus would have been too packed for me to carry a suitcase on, so I called a cab for the second leg, but they couldn't find the station. I guess not many people call cabs to that train station! There are separate entrances for the suburban commuter train and the airport express train that both use that station, so maybe they just went to the wrong door, even though I expressly said it was the express

I assume Uber/Lyft would have had GPS in the app to guide them.

Mobile 155

I have noticed a concern by some that the new automated cars might be too expensive? I am not sure that is a real legitimate concern. Sure if the cars you are looking at are 20 to 35k a car like a Tesla may seem expensive. Then if you consider a new Ford, Chevy or Dodge 4x4 Pickup can easily cost 60K or more with all of the back up cameras, sound system, built in cell phone, voice activated radio and heated seats today. So it wouldn't be too out of line for someone to spend 50k for a self driving car of their own.

If companies would pop up for services that provided on demand car service they would surely be given fleet discounts. Their per unit cost would be less than the private fleet I would think. The longevity of each unit could reduce the cost as well, assuming they were well built. Accidents or the lack there of would reduce the medical cost to society as well.

Just as a thought they could easily be considered transit for the masses and given a share of the funding given to buses. That would reduce the cost of a ride to the point where they could be very competitive with multi person station to station transport.

With automation there is no reason for the city bus to be the benchmark of how people are served by transportation. Automated buses might give that form of mass transit a few extra years of life but if they ever come up with a system that provides the same level of service as the private auto or even the old horse and buggy I believe people would jump on the idea.

I once believe a sea cruise was too expensive for a vacation. But over the years they have been in my reach more than once and opened up a whole new experience of travel both domestic and internationally. It is a matter of perspective and a healthy economy I believe. That and what people consider important.

Machka 

True!

Whereas once I would never have considered it, with all the cruise ships coming into town here, I've looked at prices, and they're really not that bad after all.

Mobile 155

On an 11 day cruise from Southern California to Alaska the cost for my wife and I was about what a good hotel, without food, would have cost in San Diego. The advantage of the ship was they fed us as well plus put on shows for entertainment all included. It was well within the budget of a working class family. I will admit it might have seemed out of reach when I was in college or just starting out working. But the sticker shock of many things doesn't seem so bad if you look at it from the point of view of the median income of many first world countries.

It is a matter of perspective. We seem to think fairness is lowering our choices to the needs of the disadvantaged. But it would seem to me raising the advantages enjoyed to the median income family to all groups even the disadvantaged is a better idea. And no I don't know automated vehicles can accomplish that task.

prathmann

OTOH, and to further illustrate how relative prices change, I remember as a child going from the US to Europe. We took an ocean liner for a 9-day crossing since it was too expensive to take a plane. The ship price was about $120 incl. all meals and it would have been close to three times that to take a flight. Compare that to today's prices for a 9-day cruise vs. a transatlantic flight.

Mobile 155

Yes I know. All I am saying is the cost of transportation is all relative to what value the customer puts on it. I still think if the masses can get pick up to deliver service by a fleet of on demand vehicles if the price is anything close to what mass transit is people could easily be converted. Convenience and comfort are a from of aphrodisiac to a large number of people. At least that is how I view it.

CliffordK

Driverless cars may initially hit the Taxi and Jitney services, in part since the developers will choose to keep the fleets close for updates.

But, as the technology matures, it undoubtedly will be sold, or leased to individuals.

I'd anticipate one of the big things we'll see with the adoption of driverless cars will also be riderless cars. My guess is we'll rapidly see 10 to 20% of the miles done in driverless cars also being done riderless.

Why will the soccer-mom's drive to pick their kids from school when they can just send Johnny Cab?



And, of course, empty taxis driving around.

There is no reason kids as young as 5 won't be able to drive a car to school, or to visit relatives.

I-Like-To-Bike

I suspect the US to Europe travel costs might be similar when computing cost of a travel package that included a transatlantic flight and the costs of 8½ days and nights of meals and lodging in most the desirable tourist destinations in Europe. Of course the plane traveler would have the option of seeing something in Europe besides water and cruise ship entertainment for 8 days.

tandempower

There will probably be an expansion of fees and requirements related to driving empty, driving at peak/congestion times, etc. It will be more cost-effective to give someone a cheap ride in an empty self-driving car than to pay a fee for transporting it empty.

In areas where businesses block such fees, the roads will fill with empty cars and hinder business, so it will be in everyone's interest to limit road/lane waste.

CliffordK

It might be difficult to regulate, unless "High Occupancy Vehicle" lanes are opened to vehicles with ONE occupant.

CliffordK

Oh, and businesses may actually welcome riderless cars.

Sit at your home computer and order your groceries.

Then send your riderless car off to the grocery store. A stocker pulls your order and carries it out to your riderless car. Puts your groceries into the trunk and sends the car back home.

Is that like living car free? I suppose the advantage is that we would likely eventually see tiny freight robots on the roads, both commercially owned, and privately owned.

tandempower

That's a good point, but it's just all the more reason to regulate traffic in a way that prevents riderless cars from slowing down traffic for people trying to get somewhere. If you aren't riding in the vehicle, there's no incentive not to send your car across town to pick up those special cookies from that one bakery you love during rush hour and get them by 8pm. If, however, you're trying to commute home and it takes you an extra hour because of all the riderless cars carrying a bag of cookies, you would want the deliveries consolidated to reduce traffic.

CliffordK

It will be hard to regulate... just like in another thread, it was suggested that it is hard to regulate semi-trucks in rush hour traffic.One could imagine once the technology comes to fruition, your Riderless car could be quite busy indeed, racking up more miles than the average Soccer Mom today. Oh, that reminds me.... don't forget to send the drone to soccer practice.... you wouldn't want the kids to think you're ignoring them would you?

I can't imagine anybody complaining about a couple extra trips without passengers. Of course, there are those lines at the deli drive-up of all those riderless cars picking up the kids lunches. But, it wouldn't do to not have it fresh. Perhaps it would be safer just to send the car to the deli midday before the kids lunch hour

I suppose it would be more efficient to just buy a driverless car for every family member, but you're saving so much by just sending the one family car around town in riderless mode.