Rogerogeroge

I'm part owner of a shop and I'm the accountant, so I can shed some light, for at least one data point. In the last two months, our inventory has gone up by over 33%. Backorders are definitely catching up, but there are still some lags. We've constantly monitored our backorders, and cut some back, even at the advice of the manufacturer. There are still backlogs with Shimano and QBP. We pay outrageous freight for a lot of stuff. That's a crazy increase in inventory over two months, we're going to talk about it later this week. We're very conservative, and almost all of that inventory is already paid for, so no big worries.

I employee-purchased two bikes this year - granted, they're EP so they go to the bottom of the list but I waited over 18 months for each of those bikes.

eBike sales are really strong. Can't get enough of them.

Seeing how this is November, we're probably over-stocked, and other shops are probably in the same situation. We're not seeing any sales from any other shops in our area.

veganbikes

They are getting bad with freight these days it is crazy.

You are ordering so much so let's reward you with you paying for freight and getting trickles of bikes usually not the ones you really need at that moment and lets take our time with the customer bikes. And hey since you have bought so much stuff let's help you out by going direct to consumer and fighting tooth and nail to release bikes you have had on order for months or more that went to our newly released direct to consumer site that we said we weren't going to do 3 years ago at a meeting at our HQ. Thanks to all of our IBDs you guys suck now but thanks for making us the brand we are, now we don't need you! Love, A major bike brand!

himespau 

What? Bike manufacturers don't offer super saver shipping or free prime shipping? And sometimes ship you small dribs and drabs of an order that in total cost more than if they'd shipped you a container containing your full order all at once? But they use the margin that you would be able to charge to offer free shipping to their direct-to-consumer purchasers (the reason you're only getting parts of your order at any one time). Yeah, sounds about right for them.

Rogerogeroge

15 bike order gets freight paid. If the order gets split up, sometimes you get the freight discount, sometimes you don't. May depend on which warehouse the bikes ship from. Right now standard freight for a single (or even five) bikes is just under $40 each, doesn't matter if it's an entry level bike or an e-bike.

Free prime shipping. LOL. LIke we're ordering from Amazon.

Our bike manufacturer doesn't sell direct to consumer. Consumers can order online, but they have to come through us to get the product, but we get less margin.

Hondo6

Check the price of diesel fuel. Per the AAA, the national average cost/gallon of diesel is more than $1.60 per gallon higher today than regular grade gasoline.

Lombard

I see plenty of "e-bikes" on the MUT's and there is often no actual pedaling going on. And no, not downhill. They are flying along at 20mph. I believe most e-bikes have different modes including a throttle mode where you don't need to pedal.

rumrunn6

see post #5 (well I know there are other bike shop owners (in this mechanics section) so I thought I'd ask)

Lombard

This was actually a running joke about cxwrench the "subforum banned friend" who has a history of virtually flogging people for not posting in the correct subforum.

Rogerogeroge

I’m glad someone gets it.

prj71

Friend of mine owns a bike shop. Floor is full of bikes. Warehouse is full of bikes that aren't even put together yet and he says he has no buyers.

Pandemic bike boom has ended.

Also seeing a lot of used Covid bikes for sale online now also along with all sorts of other outdoor equipment. Can't screw around outside anymore when you have to go back to the office and not getting goverment paychecks.

tcs

They're easy enough to modify to work w/o pedaling. Other models/brands require only sham pedaling (turning the cranks with no real force) to activate the 'assist'.

Lombard

In the words of South Park's Eric Cartmann - LAME!

Andrew R Stewart 

When I had my own shop in the 1990s I did a monthly sales as a % of year total sales assessment. IIRC the numbers were J- 2%, F- 3%, M- 7%, A- 10%, M- 15%, J- 18%, J- 16%, A- 12%, S- 8%, O- 4.5%, N- 2% and D- 2.5%. This was in Cleveland, OH so cold and snowy winters. My shop did little kids sales (hence Christmas sales were but a bump). Every year I was asked to take part in a street wide gift ads page in the local paper. I would explain that it was foolish to spend $ chasing sales that only would amount to 2.5% of my year. I would then ask where were the group ads in May, June and July when I did about half of my sales?

The store I sort of work at these days (sort of retired) was "made" to order massive bike numbers when the brand (starts with a T and ends with a K) was planning 2022 over a year ago. This requirement continued this Fall when planning for this Winter and next Spring. Had we not complied with the demand we would have seen a massive credit and product availability restriction and would expect the brand would seek another area dealer to represent their line.

Like many industries the time from planning to delivery takes many months, much of a year. As the buying public changes their habits faster than this it's no wonder that gluts and overstocks happen. Andy

himespau 

That happens too many times (leading to having to sell the last few at a severe discount) and you have to start to wonder whether the hit from not being associated with that major brand would be worse than the hit from being forced to buy a whole bunch of bikes you can't sell. Of course, that's how death spirals start as well if the calculation is done incorrectly.

veganbikes

Then those are not actual e-bikes but electric mopeds. Actual e-bikes do generally have different modes but no throttles. Trying to make sure we clearly define things so we don't have an issue where institutions try and enact laws that harm bicycles because of the menace of electric mopeds.

veganbikes

Oh I know things are more expensive due to a lot of factors but the cost of freight combined with not getting the bikes we need and many of the bikes we need going to a service that wasn't on the table and was said was never going to be on the table and us having to fight hard to get our long waiting customers their bikes instead of just "oh hey Customer X didn't get a bike yet and we show it on the website, let me pull one and send it to you right away our apologies" Freight is what it is but screwing us over more in the process while asking for us to foot the bill for freight is rough.

Hondo6

I understand it has an impact on, well, pretty much everyone. I was just pointing out what IMO is probably the major cause of the recent rise in shipping costs.

Fuel costs are a huge part of of the cost of transporting most anything, if not most of that cost. Two years ago, diesel fuel had a national average cost of $2.462 per gallon - literally less than half what it costs today. And moving any type of freight, by either train or truck, almost always uses diesel fuel to power the mover.

Lombard

Would you call the following an "electric moped"?

veganbikes

If you are pedaling in order to move forward that would be a bicycle. Yes you can set it to a higher assist level and not have to pedal super hard if you don't want but you still have to pedal to go forwards which is I think the important distinction between a bicycle and a throttled vehicle. Would rather have someone doing easy pedaling than not pedaling at all and worse in a car.

milkandrelish

Just out of curisoity, what makes are these bikes?

Reynolds 531 

only 15mph without pedaling?
thats rookie numbers around here.

Lombard

Your point is taken here. I just think these people shouldn't be flying along the MUT's at 20+mph endangering everybody else.

SoSmellyAir

While that well may be your (and a reasonable) definition of a "bicycle," that is unfortunately not how e-bikes are classed:

Three-Class eBike System - Bosch eBike Systems (bosch-ebike.com)

Two-Wheel Vehicle Operation - California DMV

Class 2 e-bikes are throttle-assisted up to 20 mph. Anecdotally, this limit is relatively easy to defeat. Some manufacturers (e.g., Aventon) requires a ride "to start pedaling" before the throttle engages:

Electric Bike Classes 1, 2, 3 | E-Bikes | Aventon

But that is hardly a universal requirement. Even if it was, I have seen so many riders barely push a pedal a quarter turn, then throttle to take off. To me, this is not really "pedaling." Pedaling requires a rider to continually apply force to the crank to cause the crank to rotate in order to propel the bike. In these e-bikes, the pedals function merely as the mechanism to unlock the throttle.

Lastly, my reference above to Mad Max props alludes to the fact that many of these so-called e-bikes (in Class 2) do not even have adjustable saddle height. Pedaling comfort and efficiency are clearly low priorities. Yes, these are functionally electric mopeds.

oldbobcat

Yeah, I used mine to put a down payment on a rental property.

mrrabbit 

It's a combination of several things:

1. More and more people each year are buying shop bikes online as each year goes by.

2. Shops that are sales oriented shops - not service oriented - are shutting down - for lack of the "big sale".

(A lot of shops out there claim to be service oriented - but they're really not. What they really want is to make money via sales - to avoid all the hard work and time that service revenue requires.)

3. The few shops that are truly service oriented shops buy out their inventory.


The service oriented shops know they'll be able to sell their stuff over time - all the while continuing as they always have providing the non-stop service that made them a magnet for loyal customers year in and year out.


In just the last 8 months, 3 sales oriented shops have shut down in my area - and the one true service oriented shop in the area has picked it all up.


...and two more sales oriented shops in the area will likely shutdown within a year.

There's a very good chance that my county which for the last decade has had over a couple dozen bicycle shops - could see itself reduced to having only 4-5 in the next year or so - with one of them being a sales oriented shop that will likely shut down as well.

=8-|