CliffordK

I'm seeing a lot of COVID numbers, but the one thing that seems to be lacking in many reports is how and where a person got infected.

OK, we know the virus can spread like wildfire though households. But, how is it getting into the households?

Party, Wedding, Social Event, Trump Rally, Church, Cinema/Theater?
Dining out (restaurant/acquaintance)?
Occupational contact while wearing masks and social distancing?
Occupational contact while not following safe practices?
Shopping?
Random contact?

Do you believe you (or others in your household) were using masks at the time of first contact?

FBOATSB 

At my workplace.

cloud

No idea but I travel for a living can't tell you how many Ubers limo's back of airplanes, hotels, restaurants ,gyms I have been in since the virus.No one else in my household has gotten the virus. I do have a friend that washes his hands about 50 times a day and wears a mask
religiously and he got the virus .

gsteinb

Masks weren't a thing when I had it. Most likely I got it in the airport, or the plane. But I came down with it on day 5 at disney world. So, I mean, good god who knows.

Biker395 

I echo the question. I was really hoping contact tracing data would be provided to the public so people could see what the biggest risk of infections are. I have been hearing it is private parties, social events and the like, but I hear of such get togethers going on anyway. Maybe presenting the actual data will help convince people?

plowmanjoe

I think the truth is that no one really knows. Why wouldn't they tell us if they did know?

This kind of information would be so incredibly useful. No one wants to get sick and no one wants to spread the virus. Unless you have a virus fetish, I guess.

Biker395 

This popped up with respect to the closure of restaurants to outdoor dining in LA County. I dunno the source of the data ... might be the result of a discovery request.

CliffordK

These are just anecdotes, not a scientific study. What I can tell from the early responses so far is that some of those who have gotten the disease seem to have had a lot of social contacts of one type or another. Not just a weekly shopping trip and video conferencing.

Obviously we have many different environments across the country. A lot less car ownership in NYC than in smaller cities putting different demands on the population.

Of course, a lot has also changed from the early wave of disease from March/April to today.

79pmooney

So, employees aren't getting sick. (Well there's 50 who did and probably infected 200 more who probably infected ...) Now, how 'bout the patrons. 1440 Employees. Say 5X that number of patrons so 7200 dining without masks. Say they have a 1% chance of getting sick. Same 2X infecting others. So in a COVID generation, those diners and employees have suffered or caused 488 cases. Probably 5 deaths. Two more COVID generations later (3 months) we are talking 35 deaths. For 1400 jobs. If a COVID generation (infection to most contagious) is two weeks, that's 1 1/2 months. (And keeping the spreading rate high. So this is just a start.) Someone croaking every day and a half to keep 1440 people employed.

Just crude napkin calcs. Been doing them since this started. I wish I had dated and framed them.. Way too many came true.

Hondo Gravel

Biggest risk is at the grocery store. The local store is doing a good job at disinfecting shopping carts and requiring masks. I try to be careful as possible.

CliffordK

That is probably the place I encounter the post people and employees.

But I've been curious whether customers are actually getting sick in the stores.

I tend to use the self checkout lines as often as practical.

Rules got pretty strict for a while... then have relaxed a lot lately. They do provide hand wipes at the entrance, but I don't think they are still wiping down carts, and if they are, just the plastic handles.

Biker395 

I posted that as an example that they are in fact apparently doing contact tracing, and quite a bit of it. Here is the LA County dashboard:

Contact Tracing Dashboard - LA County Department of Public Health

What you've done up there are make a lot of back of the envelope assumptions and extrapolations. As far as I can tell, the contact tracing didn't show any significant outdoor dining patrons infected (The LA County board of health has admitted that outdoor dining wasn't driving the spike in infections, if they had data to the contrary, they surely would have presented it at the hearing).

canklecat

FWIW, my exposure and network are pretty small so if I tested positive or developed COVID I could pretty well trace it to my medical appointments and trips to and from via city bus and Uber.

I've done some medical appointments by phone, and postponed others indefinitely, but I had a few urgent care visits this year that couldn't be avoided. Medical facilities are high risk.

The most surprising was a visit to my immunologist this spring. On the first visit some employees weren't wearing masks. I mean... I'm there because I have an autoimmune disorder and chronic sinus headaches, phlegmy and congested. You'd think they'd mask up for their own protection against potential cooties from patients. The immunology doc and nurse/tech who did my pulmonary function tests wore plain surgical masks, nothing else. I was a little surprised by how casual they were, considering the nature of their work.

On the flip side was my ophthalmology visit for a posterior vitreous detachment. Both visits the doctor was in nearly full PPE: N95 with surgical mask over that, goggles, face shield, Tyvek suit including over the head, booties, etc. But that exam is very up close and personal, literally face to face. There's no other safe way to do the job. I appreciated that.

My ENT and endocrinology docs wore only a surgical mask but there was no physical exam and we were across the room from each other. In retrospect I could have done that appointment via phone. I was hoping for a followup ultrasound (cancer screening), which they postponed without notifying me first. Wasted trip.

As the year wore on, fewer people on buses bothered with masks. By summer drivers no longer bothered trying to persuade passengers to wear masks. Too many crazy people on city buses.

One of my Uber drivers didn't wear a mask. I reported that. I tipped him anyway, but I couldn't let the no-mask thing go, especially while he was playing right wingnut talk radio on the trip. There's a gray zone between a legit difference of opinion and reflexively oppositional defiance, and he waded neck deep into it. Uber must have received other reports around the nation and emailed customers saying Uber would require visual confirmation that drivers and passengers were masked.

I've tried to minimize my grocery shopping. I go late at night when it's not crowded. So far I'd say 99% of employees and customers are wearing masks.

Probably pretty close to accurate. And judging from comments I see in response to every post about the pandemic on news sites and government updates, a lot of Americans regard that as an acceptable loss in exchange for being able to go unmasked to Walmart, take duckface selfies at their favorite bar and generally party like it's 1999.

Mammon demands human sacrifice.

CliffordK

One thing that China did is check the temperature of people as they were coming in and out of businesses.

I'm trying to think if I've had that done. I think perhaps a couple of medical clinics were taking people's temperatures at the door. But, not even all the medical clinics.

I've been to stores that had extra "greeters" to clean shopping carts and make sure there was mask compliance. But, none were taking temperatures.

LMM2855

It seems like there has been conflicting information about grocery shopping. Several medical associations published charts showing that grocery shopping was generally in the low-moderate risk category, but now I'm seeing that a few states are coming out with more information that suggests that it is more risky than previously thought. I'd say that as long as mask rules are enforced, people maintain their distance and you sanitize during and after the trip, it is probably no more than a moderate risk. But as we have seen, many people are refusing to wear masks.

cloud

Don't beat yourself up .I never had a temperature so really don't know how much that would have helped.And a couple of other people I talked to said they only had a slight temperature maybe once and a drug like day quill would have covered it up.

CliffordK

We have essentially 100% mask use. Don't don your mask, and don't eat.

Some stores employ bouncers at the entrance.

I have seen a variety of masks including these clear face shields (with nothing additional over the mouth).



I assume the people at most at risk for the virus use the lowest quality masks.

There may be exceptions for kids, but most kids big enough to walk are also wearing their face masks.

LMM2855

Yes, I also live in the Willamette Valley and we also have close to 100% mask use in grocery stores locally, although I usually see one or two people with their nose out of their mask. Last time I went shopping, the cashier had one of those face shields with no mask underneath. I kept my distance from her while checking out, and was surprised that the store allowed her to wear a shield only. Those and the N95 masks with exhalation valves don't seem much better than nothing at all.

02Giant 

I'm not convinced temp checks would be the answer. I was working two projects in a 43 story office building this summer, four floors of the building were being built out by a different contractor, they had 3 breakouts of COVID on their floors, I had none, all workers were required to get their temp checked at entry each morning.
Do those that are asymptomatic have elevated temperatures?

79pmooney

I have some (otherwise excellent) mask with the valves. I tape vents over inside and out.

Machka 

We've got contact tracing here. It's not fool proof but it gives us a pretty good idea of what's going on.

CliffordK

We have contact tracing here too. I think it was doing pretty well when we had about 5 cases a day, but it may be strained when we're up to 100 cases a day. And, areas with > 1000 cases a day must struggle.

So far I've never been contacted saying that I've had a first-hand contact with someone with COVID. In part because most of my contacts are very careful. I don't know if they look at financial transactions as part of contact tracing.

Anyway, my question was what were some of the high risk activities, and what were the low risk activities where people got the disease. Are people getting it grocery shopping once a week, or are they getting it elsewhere?

skookum

Most of the stuff I have read would indicate that grocery shopping is low risk. Working at a grocery store is higher, I presume because the exposure is cumulative.
I dont think anybody really knows.
My doctor told me that when she was following up with patients who had tested positive, most of them had no idea where they had been infected.

mstateglfr 

I was diagnosed just over 4 weeks ago. I dont know how I got it. In the week prior to testing positive, I had been to 2 places and wore a mask at each location(again though, the mask is worn mostly for the person that has it and not the person who doesnt).
- I was at a local university gym with one of my kids and a coach for 80 minutes. It was the three of us in a space that is 2 full college basketball courts and I wasnt within 15 feet of the coach. The coach didnt have covid(he tested before and after) and my kid hasnt had covid. Hands were washed at the end and then also disinfected on the way out.
- I was at the grocery store for 45 minutes. Carts are cleaned by someone standing at the cart racks, I never followed someone for more than a few brief seconds, and nobody walked alongside me coughing over my shoulder or anything like that. Hands were disinfected as I left.
- I did a 90min hard road/gravel ride. Nobody around me at all.
- I walked our dogs with my wife 4 or 5 times and we didnt pass anyone.

Thats my life outside the home for the week prior to diagnosis.
I wear a mask every time I go somewhere, we have not eaten in a restaurant since February, and I have eaten at outside tables 4 times since March and not in the last 2 months. I work at home now and do not get together in groups.

Its a mystery how I got it. Im guessing the grocery store is where I got it somehow. Cant say what I would have done differently.

I spent the following 9 days in our basement in isolation away from my wife and kids, except for about 30min total between a half dozen trips upstairs for food or shower.
Oh, we did go on a few hikes where it was just us. I drove separately, we all worse masks, and the others were 10-70' away.
Nobody else in my family tested positive. They finished their 14 days in quarantine, tested, and came back negative.

Biker395 

Yikes. That is scary.

It’s my understanding that it may take as long as 2 weeks for symptoms to appear. We’re you essentially isolated the week before as well?