USAZorro

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USAZorro

This one has a lot of riders nervous. This stage will do a lot to decide the winner.

diphthong

if roughly even on the classification, the better gt time-trialists could afford to lose 1-2 minutes to the gt grimpeurs here.
stage 19's long & flat tt could allow the tt'ers to make up for time lost as long as they don't crack completely on the tourmalet.
still gonna be the stage of the tour this year tho.

colombo357

This is the only uphill finish this year huh?

The long downhill in the previous stage looks like an opportunity for good descenders to make up plenty of time.

daytonian

brutal

USAZorro

Not the only one, but the most formidable one.

Stages 7, 8, 12 and 14 all finish on climbs, or shortly after reaching the top of a climb.

daytonian

Wiggins will lose 3 -5 minutes on this stage

daytonian

scratch that-

10 minutes

C_Heath

I think andy is stronger than conta. However, he looked spent after today.

OrionKhan

If that were the case, Andy would have dropped AC today. Andy may have spent to much energy trying to drop AC. AS is talkin' a mean game about being improved in the ITT, but I think he still wants a bigger lead going in. Right now, they both seem about even in the mountains. Of course, we have seen AC launch an attack yet.

I don't think there will be a bunch of attacks like we saw in the Alps. Maybe on or two. They will want to be good for the ITT.

merlinextraligh

I've ridden most of that stage. The Col de Marie Blanque is actually the stiffest climb on the stage, but too early to make a difference. I'm going to enjoy watching it.

C_Heath

This is true also. I dont like the idea of AC being a better TT'er than andy. I like them both but I am pulling for andy.

daytonian

scratch that-

25 minutes

Laggard

The queen stage.

TommyL

As much as I want to see fireworks on stage 16, this will be probably be where ANdy throws down, if his temper doesn't get the better of him. A summit finish is more to his advantage than a descent.

blue_neon

Do i recall correctly, Schleck saying "I will get my revenge on the Tourmalet". Epic.

USAZorro

Not sure. Things could start to come apart even there.

daytonian

Schleckstrong has been saying that the entire race

Laggard

For those of us who have never had a chance to climb something like the Tourmalet, please describe what it's like.

Andy Somnifac 

I've never ridden it either, but I'd have to venture a guess that it goes something like this:

"#$&@(%@(#*($()@%$$%$%@(#(@*@&#@*(#*(^$}#}":#}"}"##}"@&@>@?@&%^@&:^?$L#:#."

TommyL

The big question to me is, where does Andy attack? Clearly the burden is on him (though Menchov or Sanchez might take a crack if they are feeling phenomenal), and he can't wait to play games in the last couple kms of the race. Does he attack at the base of the Tourmalet, Sastre 08 style, or does he try to get away over the Col du Soulor?

Any chance Sanchez and Menchov could put time into either Andy or Alberto if one is having a rough day? I'm glad those guys are close enough to make this extra interesting.

TommyL

ftfy

mcoomer

With the finish at the top of the climb there should be a big attack. Either AC trying to put away more time or Schleck taking his revenge. Either way, it looks like it will be a great stage. I hope that neither flat or suffer a mechanical. Let the legs and lungs sort it out.

As for when I expect an attack, I don't think it will come early. You would have to defend a lead all the way to the end to maintain any time gains that you managed and that would simply take too much energy. The Tourmalet is long enough that a successful attack can net a substantial time gain. With the race ending at the top you can sell out on the way up to maintain any time you've gained knowing that the next stage is a relative cruise to Bordeaux. Let the fireworks begin!

Bacciagalupe

FWIW my best guess is that similar to 15, Saxo will set a strong tempo in a (somewhat) vain attempt to dampen Astana's firepower, and Andy will attack shortly after the last Saxo domestique peels off. It's possible, unfortunately, that this could happen too early on the climb.

It's also possible Astana will move to the front (as they have the MJ), in which case I presume Schleck can choose a more advantageous time but will probably be alone (again).

I doubt Schleck will be able to play the same games as earlier, he needs to nab minutes if he's going to have a fighting chance in the TT. But after 2 Tours I don't think I've ever seen either one take much time out of the other -- they're evenly matched. Of course, if Andy digs too deep or lets his desire for Revenge get the better of him, it could make his TT even worse.

We'll see what happens, but my feeling is the end result will be Contador 1, Menchov 2, Schleck 3 -- especially if AC & AS play games on Thursday.

SunSwingsLow

Andy puts no time into Contador. Contador covers all attacks and gives AS the victory at the line as an apology for the chain.