GhostRider62

Please link Assos Centos EVO or Lazer G1 MIPS for under 200 bucks on Amazon? There is zero absolutely zero price incentive to use Amazon for good bike stuff. Fast delivery? Sure.

sloppy12

Calm down ghost rider its sarcasm.

Fredo76

When a hobby or pastime is 'fetishized' (my word) in a stratified class system where the upper class has loads of disposable income, things get silly-expensive fairly quickly. Just look at high-end audio (or better, don't!).
No kidding. Bicycles that run software are luxury goods, alright.

woodcraft

I have a good quality fly set up, & recently added a compact rig for travel & to take on the bike. Complete outfit for $105! Rod is good, reel good, line OK, leaders & bits not great.

Shoot-outs on YouTube show remarkably little difference in performance between expensive rods & inexpensive ones- like Denali vs Pinarello.

SoSmellyAir

For every mom that is your customer, there are 10 parents who treat bicycles for themselves and their children as inexpensive toys, and who let their children ride with barely functional brakes and/or drivetrains and oversized helmets worn at an angle which expose their children's foreheads. This issue may be socioeconomic but I see this even in the relatively affluent area where I live. My own wife thinks I (a) slightly overspent on my son's current ($560) and prior ($420) bikes and (b) over-maintain them because she got his first (with training wheels) from a sporting goods store and it worked "just fine."

ericcox

This is an excellent point. 25 years ago at age 22, my first road bike was a $400 Bianchi with downtube shifters. A year later, I upgraded to a steel Fuji team with 9 speed Ultegra (ok, it had 8 speed ultegra that I moved to the Bianchi when I got a good deal on 9spd stuff). I rode that bike for 9 years. Then when I finished my Ph.D. and had a real job, got mid-level Orbea. It was great and was my primary bike for 10 years. Then a lower priced Ridley with 105 when I gave the Orbea to my son. Our disposable income is higher now; last year I got my dream bike. Still "mid-level" in that it is a prince, not a dogma, but I have Di2 and FFWD wheels. I certainly enjoy it more, but the cheaper bikes served me well. I go thte prince because I could.

There are still bargain bikes out there, and even claris is a pretty damn good groupset. Yes, you have to spend a lot to get a top end bike, and yes, it is people with disposable income who buy them. My youngest kid's bike is an REI special with claris - it works fine. My older kid rides my orbea with still functional 10 speed ultegra. It is fine, though I need to service the rear hub. Like a lot of sports, you can easily spend a ton on cycling. I spend way too much. But it can be done on a budget.

genejockey 

Last time I dropped by my LBS to fix something I couldn't, I was talking with the owner who told me he'd only sold 6 bikes in the last 6 months, but was doing more than fine on just service, though of course some parts were a problem (like the spring for the Ergopower lever he was fixing for me). I looked around. The shop was FULL of bikes, but none of them were new display models. All of them were there for service.

Psimet2001 

75% of Chicagoland is 30 minutes southeast of me. If you're talking southwest burbs then maybe you're implying Spokes in Wheaton? They're pretty much a Giant store though I thought. They charge an arm and a leg for everything but they're still around so enough people must like them. Otherwise I can't think of anyone specifically. Could be anyone. Every store here is well known. Everyone's prices are going up as well. That and - this is "Chicago". Getting a meal from Portillo's for our family of 4 is $40-$50.

It's OK to say their name. People that have had problems with me never hesitate to throw my name around. That and there aren't many shops that I think have no value but every shop has some bad stories.

WhyFi

Off the subject, but I saw a McSomeone or Another with a Psimet tag on the Alpe du Zwift this morning. I thought that was kind of neat.

Psimet2001 

HAHAHAHA - yeah. Pat McClarty. on our team. I've been told he does well in the make believe racing stuff. - He's always going on about Zwift in the team chat.

EDIT - I was out there yesterday, albeit not on the alpe. Anymore I ride as P. SIMET

WhyFi

Now Zwift-stalking.

Koyote

I agree, but the poster hasn't complained about the quality of the work - only about the price. And complaining about price AFTER the work is done, when you could've/should've/might've asked about the price ahead of time, is whiny. I'm always amazed by people who voluntarily enter into transactions, get precisely what they expected, and then claim to have been "screwed." If you really feel that way, then you were a fool for entering into the transaction in the first place.

Psimet2001 

let me apologize up front for not riding often and being immensely slow when I do.

CliffordK

I'm not sure I'd judge much of the bike industry by January sales. Isn't this always a "dead" month? A lot could change by March or April.

I think shortages are still impacting multiple industries around the world.

But, yes, we will see changes with respect to COVID. I thought fitness centers were reopening, but Omicron could close them up again.

But, yes, eventually those bikes will be forgotten once again in the basement or back of the garage.

I do think there are signs that the economy is struggling which may actually be good news for the bike industry.

Bald Paul

So, you brought in a job, had to wait 10 days, paid what you had agreed to pay for the job, and you feel you were "ripped"?
Did you ever consider that the shop just may have had other jobs waiting that had been brought in before you arrived? If you didn't ask about the cost or time beforehand, that's on you.

Do you see any correlation there? Working for cheap makes for happy customers, but doesn't necessarily keep your business afloat for long.

Psimet2001 

The trend was over pretty much the entire last quarter of last year. Had nothing to do with this January. The thing of note is that we "returned" to demand levels we would see in a "normal" or pre-covid year. Seeing that trend over the quarter and into the new year already now implies the "return" of demand to normal levels.

This takes into account the "dead months" as you mention. These are same period comparisons.

in other words no one went into December and said, "wow, this is way lower than it was in July! people must hate bikes now." Instead they went into Oct, Nov, and December and said, "the last 3 months trended the same as fall 2019 and fall 2018. Markedly below what had been usual for these months in 2020. It's possible we're back to normal levels."

Omicron is peaking and starting to drop just like it did in South Africa. We will not see the lock downs or closures we saw in the past. People are starting to remember they generally don't like bikes.

SoSmellyAir

Sigh. My LBS became a Trek owned store in late 2018. During the course of this pandemic it doubled in size but the additional space was almost entirely devoted to e-bikes.

Psimet2001 

Yup - that's where the market and growth is. As much as all us enthusiasts want to believe that just because the stuff we like is expensive and there seems to be a short supply of it that we are somehow the key to this industry we just aren't. *shrug*

deacon mark

The LBS here that is a Trek dealer I think has been busy at least was in 2021 with repairs. They wanted me to be a mechanic and it was nice of them but in my retirement I did not want to go back to working 3 days a week and at least one on the weekend. The reason they were really interested in me was not because I am some super bike mechanic ( but I can get it done) but, that I could build and true wheels. They were desperately needing someone to do wheels. They did not even ask see one of my own wheels but when I mention spoke tensions and making sure wheels were safe and sable I think that made the case. I am not sure now for 2022 what we will see at this shop but for me sadly I like the place but they just don't have much reason for me to go in the store. They don't sell too many tire variations, or have many replacement parts as we know. In fact the best advocate for replacement parts it yourself.

This works for me but I should mention one of my riding friends is an orthopedic surgeon. The best thing about riding with him is that he happens to be a very strong rider but if you crash he happens to be the absolute best person in the group. However like he says I don't really do anything to my bike other than maybe generally make sure it is rideable with lube and possibly washing the bike. If he needs any work the LBS gets his bike in a hurry. For this guy he has way too much business working as an orthopedic surgeon and I am glad he does that in fact. I am not sure what he gets an hour but pretty sure it is more than being a mechanic. I have another riding friend who is a LBS owner and rides himself and his problem is he does not have time to ride as much with the shop and I know he is not exactly rolling in money! If I really like to ride might be best to sell the LBS and find another gig and ride.

CliffordK

We are past Christmas and New Years which is good for COVID, but bad for retail.

But, I think it is premature to declare a significant drop in cases. Perhaps a few local areas, but not nationwide.

So far mortality hasn't followed the Omicron surge, but hospitals are filling up, and if the trend continues, the government may be forced to respond, even in a lockdown weary country.

And, of course, there is still risk to the international trade and shipping infrastructure.

What happened to all the people who bought a 10 year supply of toilet paper back in 2020? There may be a bubble simply because some people have stocked up on the supplies they'll need, perhaps even over stocked if their cycling changes, and just don't need to buy more. We'll likely see NOS 2020 and 2021 parts showing up on E-Bay in a few years.

I had to groan when I would read about people choosing to order 2 or 3 bikes, with the intention to keep one and return the others. It could lead to shops filling with obscure inventory.

On the other hand, there have been a number of bike shops that have closed due to either retiring owners, or shops struggling with inventory. That may well be a benefit to the shops that survived.

I wouldn't be surprised if there is another hectic year as backorders are delivered, inventories bounce back, and people who bought used components come back into the market.

GhostRider62

What evidence is there of a bubble?

The parts were not being made and therefore, they are not en route. I don't see the shortages of parts easing anytime soon. I have parts ordered 7 months ago and the estimate keeps getting pushed.

Fredo76

Maybe the chip shortage is impacting bicycle and parts manufacturers, too.

Covid is far from over.

CliffordK

It is more than a chip shortage, and the impact is both domestic and international.

Harbor Freight has been experiencing random shortages for over a year now.
Our local building supply store has some of the oddest shortages from conduit to plywood.
My favorite frozen pizza has been out of stock for quite some time, and a couple of weeks ago, the brand was reduced to cheese pizza.
My poor cats are now dealing with their favorite cat food being out of stock.

seypat

In my industry, there are items that went on backorder in March 2020 that are still on backorder. Those items aren't coming from China, either.

ericcox

What time were on you on the Alpe this morning? I did the 9am (central US time) tour du zwift long ride. Did not see the Psimet tag - but I did see Psimet himself take umbrage with some impending embargoed announcement on the twitters. I immediately followed him, of course.