unterhausen

So that's where all the chains are going

Koyote

I replace chains myself, of course. But I recently had a bike in the shop for some work that I don't do, and the mechanic wanted to replace the chain - but he didn't have any. I told him that I had five in my garage, so he asked me to bring one along so that he could put it on my bike.

Cpn_Dunsel

The confluence of two dynamic forces (pandemic and bike sales boom) from one one source (Covid) was a hard one to predict and no one was prepared. All bike manufacturing industry infrastructure from raw materials to shop floor is narrowly construed and controlled by very few players., The supply line has always been fragile.

Now it is broken.

The largest players are sitting on their thumbs because they do not believe the boom is going to be long lasting. This makes it impossible for the medium and small players to do anything and thus we all just sitting here in s catatonic state of shocking paralysis.

The marketing arms of the machine kept pumping out ads and writing checks that the manufacturing body had no real interesting in funding. All the adverts we see/saw for 'new' bikes was just residual optics from marketing, R & D and had little or no basis in manufacturing reality.

Will likely take more than a year for the industry/bike market to regain any sense of normalcy.

mstateglfr 

Perhaps I misunderstand what you are saying here. Everything I have read and listed to shows manufacturing facilities are backordered and trying to push out product. Giant announced an increase in workers a few months ago too.
Are you saying the largest players(Trek, Specialized, Giant, Shimano, etc) are in fact sitting back and not doing the things they have continually claimed?

Cpn_Dunsel

The largest companies have NOT increased manufacturing to meet new levels of demand. Many cut back production last spring when Covid became pandemic and were surprised by the increase in demand, They have increased in some areas in order to work on back orders but have not increased calls for future production numbers. Trek was the only company that did not reduce their build number for 2020. All the other larger companies cut back on the number of bikes they were going to produce as they expected the market to shrink.

It did the opposite and they will ill prepared for this.

The market is going to get tighter this year, not better. Demand will be higher and production (supply) is not being increased anywhere close to the same level of increase on the demand side. We already seeing large price jumps that reflect this burgeoning economic reality.

Koyote

Sorry, but I don't buy it.

Bicycle manufacturers are profit-driven capitalists. When demand and prices rise (as they did beginning last spring), they will want to produce more bikes. That's how they make profit.

I haven't been able to find any reliable data on new bike production, but I would think that, if production has actually fallen, that is caused by Covid-related disruptions of the supply chain -- not from bike manufacturers being "uninterested" in production.

Cpn_Dunsel

You misconstrue my post and what I wrote. It is supply and demand. Production fell for two reasons: Some companies cut back at start of pandemic while also Covid supply issue disrupted production at same time. Now, demand is very high and companies have not yet decided or been able to increase supply to fully meet it.




https://www.bicycleretailer.com/opin...lies-here-well

mstateglfr 

Ok, so we are partly saying the same thing and partly disagreeing.

I am saying what you are saying about production, just in a different way. I said production has increased, which it has. You are saying production isnt as high as pre-covid, which it isnt. Both are correct comments. Production has increased, but it isnt as high as pre-covid. I have read/heard both of these things in industry blogs, sites, and podcasts. I have heard Giant clearly state they increased production and opened a factory that had closed. I have also read about labor shortages due to migrant worker challenges with covid.
Both positions can be correct.


As for your comments that the big guys are sitting on their thumbs because they arent convinced the boom will last- the BRAIN link you provided to support your comments says this-
I heard a podcasts and read articles where Microshift is running at full capacity, Giant has hired more workers, and Shimano is behind due to shut down factories in Singapore and Malaysia for months last year.

Maybe the confusion lies in me not understanding who you refer to when you say 'the largest players are sitting on their hands'. Who specifically is that?

msu2001la

I bought a kids bike in April last year and my LBS only had two 16" bikes left at that time. I had been thinking of getting a new CX race bike and was worried about availability, so a few months later I started searching and was able to find options from a few different shops. I remember at that time my LBS telling me they were completely sold out of any sub $2000 bikes for 2020, but that higher end stuff was still available.

Fast forward to a few weeks ago, I saw a note from them on social media that they had two fully loaded Cannondale SystemSix's in stock, but otherwise every Cannondale road bike was sold out for 2021.

Koyote

​​I didn't misconstrue your post, and neither did mstateglfr . You've written, in a few posts now, that big bike manufacturers have "not yet decided" whether to increase production in order to meet the very high demand. But the article you linked -- which I had already read, but reviewed again just now -- suggests that the supply problems are entirely Covid-driven. (If I missed something in the article that suggests otherwise, please point me to it.)

I think we can all agree, though, that the bike shortage won't be getting better anytime soon. I'm glad I have five of them in my garage.

msu2001la

The article outlines the supply issues pretty clearly, in fact. It is supply and demand, but I'm not seeing anything in that article that suggests manufacturers can do anything to increase supply:

1.Virtually all of the reserve stock that wholesalers usually hold so that retailers can order on demand, has been sold. Warehouses are empty. This happened as a result of higher demand in 2020 for bikes.

2. International shipping delays are an issue, caused both due to trade war with China and COVID related issues. Shipping costs are going up, causing retail prices to be inflated.

3. COVID 19 travel restrictions are causing labor shortages in China and Taiwan. This, along with maximum demand, is causing parts availability issues and rising prices.

It seems pretty hard to increase supply if demand is already at maximum levels, and your ability to produce and ship is being limited by outside factors.

msu2001la

I'm also going to order a new chain and cassette today, so that I can have them ready to replace ahead of (hopefully) the 2021 CX race season.

mstateglfr 

Curious about Chicago area CX for you. I grew up in the north and northwest suburbs and have listened to psimet's podcasts for years now so I know way more useless info about Chicago CX than any normal out of stater should. Do you ride only within the Chicagoland area or travel up to WI and out to IA too?
Ive never tried CX because running up hill is for the devil, but completely want to see some quality races sometime as its neat to watch on TV so Im guessing in person is even better.

msu2001la

Rob is awesome and has done a ton to promote CX racing in our region, including supporting teams with sponsorships/discounts, running his own team, and running many awesome races. I know he and many other team/race directors send athletes to Jingle Cross and also Trek World Cup in Wisconsin, as well as being staples in the Chicago Cyclocross Cup.

I have only participated in Chicago Cyclocross Cup, so I don't have basis of comparison to other race series, but I love CCC. We get high quality race fields for CCC and really good crowds, especially at the races held in the City of Chicago. The last race of the season is at Montrose Beach and usually has a large crowd, great racing and a really cool setting along the lake. Our series has a great play-by-play announcer, and every race has food trucks, tent city, lots of beverages and high-fives, etc.

I usually race with the old guys early in the morning, but often hang around after my race is done to watch the juniors and elite racers go later in the day. The Cat 5 race at the end of the day is usually pretty rowdy and fun to witness.

I really hope we get to race this year. CX Nationals are going to be in DuPage Co, so it should be incredible.

mstateglfr 

Where in DuPage? I know it well- lived/worked there in college and my wife is from there.

franswa

Just bought a chain and cassette thanks to this thread

msu2001la

USA CX Nationals will be in Cantigny Park in Wheaton, IL, December 7-12, 2021.

If we can get past COVID, 2021-2022 season will include some amazing CX racies in the US:

10/10/2021: UCI World Cup race in Waterloo, WI at Trek HQ
10/13/2021: UCI World Cup race in Fayetteville, AK
10/17/2010: UCI World Cup race at Jingle Cross in Iowa City, IA
12/12/2021: USA CX Nationals (qualifier for World Championship) in Wheaton, IL
01/29/2022 and 01/30/2022: UCI World Championships in Fayetteville, AK

This is only the second time ever the world championships have been held in USA. The last time was 2013, Louisville.

mstateglfr 

Ha! I worked at a couple of Cantigny's courses back in college. Funny.
Jingle Cross is what I have thought about watching in the past since its just a couple hours away and is a high level.

I just may need to do it this year, assuming it happens and allows spectators.

msu2001la

Race it! Jingle has a bunch of lower level amateur racing wrapped around the UCI race as well. I think there's even a gravel race associated with it now.

dwmckee

If you recall, Wuhan Province (where so many bikes are made) was completely shut down with stay at home orders for nearly 4 months in the height of bike building season last spring. This was not a voluntary shutdown of the big brands. Not only was assembly shut down, but parts and component manufacturing was shut down as well which trickles way forward in the supply chain and has impacts many months down the road in parts shortages. In the Wuhan restart, many skilled workers were still absent from assembly lines (or dead) which made restart for everything very difficult. This problem is clearly impacting many more industries tan just the bike industry. The large brands (ALL of them) had parts shortages that caused delays in assembly that is still acute even today while the backorders kept piling up in the frenzy for new bikes all summer and fall. One rivet shortage for an Acera derailleur means hundreds of thousands of bikes from dozens of brands cannot be built because no rivet - no derailleur - no bike assembly... If Giant is not at full capacity it is because they cannot get parts and they have skilled workers out sick. I can promise you that as a large bike dealer that deals with 10 brands that have manufacturing spread across more than 8 countries right now that no brands are hanging out oblivious indifferent to the problem..
And, just a little tickler that started a bit of a shortage pre-COVID, someone that shall remain unnamed made major rapid changes to our Tariff structure that started a bike shortage even earlier as some purchases and shipments were postponed to try wait for a tariff resolution that would bring bike prices back down 25% (NOT PAID BY CHINA) that would have been tacked on to the retail sales price.
And oh yeah, 40 foot container shipping rates across the Pacific that have gone up from $1250 a year ago to the current spot market rate of $4,000 due to a massive capacity shortage.
And oh yeah, there are no empty containers in China right now to load the bikes into. And when they do have bikes in a container that make it to LA they sit offshore 3 - 4 weeks before they can be unloaded. And after that it takes another week just to get the containers out of the port to a regional warehouse.

As you can see, this is a bit more complicated than simply apathetic manufacturers...

dwmckee

Hah! In April last year the only 7-speed chain we could get across all of our suppliers was the bulk KMC chain spool! Once we got used to it we started to like it more than the individually wrapped chains. We no longer throw away 3 - 4 links and packaging like we used to with every boxed chain.

mstateglfr 

To put some general numbers to this conversation, below are some inbound volumes for the Port of LA.

Feb 7-13 this year is up 25% in container volume
Feb 14-20 this year is up 130% in container volume
Feb 21-27 this year is up 286% in container volume

These are projected(obviously). It shows just how much is coming into a main inbound Asian port. Obviously this isnt all bike parts, its all sorts of goods, but you can see how out of balance container use is right now.
Chinese New Years starts today so pretty much everything shuts down for the next week, and even after that, much will be closed or skeleton staffed for the following week.
This will further mess with global production of goods.

Sertsa

I bought my hardtail mountain bike last March, shortly before the boom took off (I'd been shopping for a while), but I wore out the top cog. It's been in the shop awaiting a new cassette since mid-December. I've been looking at also getting a gravel bike. The shop has one in my size in stock, but it's more than I planned to spend ($2,200) given some uncertainties.

mstateglfr 

What speed and range is the cassette?...is it something quite unique where there isnt much regular inventory?

Sertsa

It's an SRAM NX-Eagle 11-50t 12spd on a 2020 Kona Honzo, so I don't think it should be that unique. The kicker is I really only need the 11-tooth cog, maybe the one after, but evidently have to buy a full cassette. (The mountain bike trails in my area became quite crowded, so I spent a lot of time on rail-trails, where I stay on the top cog. Of course a gravel bike would be better-suited).