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It's not a hoax

 
Old 04-10-20, 09:03 AM
  #76  
livedarklions
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Originally Posted by BillyD View Post
Yeah but you got to give him some credit for at least admitting he was wrong, eh. How often does that happen on Bike Forums?

Good point--I just gave him a belated "like".

I also think now that my joke might have come across as an "in your face", which I did not intend. I just thought that an apology phrased that way would have been very funny.
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Old 04-10-20, 09:19 AM
  #77  
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Originally Posted by BillyD View Post
Yeah but you got to give him some credit for at least admitting he was wrong, eh. How often does that happen on Bike Forums?
Posts 62 and 63.
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Old 04-10-20, 09:33 AM
  #78  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Annnd here it is... the haves and have nots...
The Immunity Card.


https://www.politico.com/amp/news/20...scussed-178784

No doubt, if you have a card, it means a "free pass" to places that folks without a card can't go to... gee, how long before this becomes a "mark" or tattoo?

"Papers please...?"

For the record, I hate being right about stuff like this.
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Old 04-10-20, 11:50 AM
  #79  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
For those that take the time to read it, here is what Fauci said this morning...

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/09/83066...y-tests-on-way

Bottom line, it ain't no hoax, and our distancing is showing results, and more testing is on the way, of a different form... antibodies.
It's pretty crazy/sad/scary that 3 months into this being a major story, the comment "this ain't no hoax" is still relevant as there are a not insignificant amount of people who believe it is.
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Old 04-10-20, 12:14 PM
  #80  
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Originally Posted by OBoile View Post
It's pretty crazy/sad/scary that 3 months into this being a major story, the comment "this ain't no hoax" is still relevant as there are a not insignificant amount of people who believe it is.
I'd love to explore that "hoax" aspect... that would get this thread moved to P&R.

Suffice it to say that the evidence is pretty compelling as to the reality of this situation.
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Old 04-10-20, 12:15 PM
  #81  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Annnd here it is... the haves and have nots...
The Immunity Card.


https://www.politico.com/amp/news/20...scussed-178784

No doubt, if you have a card, it means a "free pass" to places that folks without a card can't go to... gee, how long before this becomes a "mark" or tattoo?

"Papers please...?"
DIdn't Hitler do that to Jewish people? Mark the unclean.
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Old 04-10-20, 12:16 PM
  #82  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
I'd love to explore that "hoax" aspect... that would get this thread moved to P&R.

Suffice it to say that the evidence is pretty compelling as to the reality of this situation.
It is worse than the worst case scenarios of a couple of months ago. I have trepidation of what it will look like in six months time.
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Old 04-10-20, 12:32 PM
  #83  
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Originally Posted by willibrord View Post
It is worse than the worst case scenarios of a couple of months ago. I have trepidation of what it will look like in six months time.
Exactly... and if there are not enough tests to go around, or you are in an area that is somehow "restricted... "
Yeah, I see exactly where this is going. And it is not pretty at all.
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Old 04-10-20, 12:47 PM
  #84  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Annnd here it is... the haves and have nots...
The Immunity Card.


https://www.politico.com/amp/news/20...scussed-178784

No doubt, if you have a card, it means a "free pass" to places that folks without a card can't go to... gee, how long before this becomes a "mark" or tattoo?

"Papers please...?"
Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
For the record, I hate being right about stuff like this.
What's your alternative? I think this is mainly about return to work, especially for critical jobs.
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Old 04-10-20, 01:30 PM
  #85  
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Originally Posted by willibrord View Post
It is worse than the worst case scenarios of a couple of months ago. I have trepidation of what it will look like in six months time.
This looked like at least November from mid March if you read between the lines of all the medical experts and stayed the hell away from social media. The insipid US federal government response should go down as the greatest failure of politics for a long time.
Bitter and cynical? Always.
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Old 04-10-20, 01:33 PM
  #86  
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Originally Posted by BillyD View Post
Yeah but you got to give him some credit for at least admitting he was wrong, eh. How often does that happen on Bike Forums?
I'm still telling you square wheels are more efficient than round ones.
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Old 04-10-20, 01:43 PM
  #87  
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Originally Posted by trailangel View Post
DIdn't Hitler do that to Jewish people? Mark the unclean.

I'm Jewish. Please don't go there, I really resent this comparison.
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Old 04-10-20, 01:46 PM
  #88  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
I'm still telling you square wheels are more efficient than round ones.
You are wrong. Everybody knows triangular wheels are more efficient and more aerodynamic.
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Old 04-10-20, 02:01 PM
  #89  
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Originally Posted by MoAlpha View Post
What's your alternative? I think this is mainly about return to work, especially for critical jobs.
I don't have one. I do hope something is done to protect privacy as well as public health. Unfortunately a pandemic is a civil libertarian's worst nightmare.

The only real solution is a universal, safe, effective compulsory vaccine.
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Old 04-10-20, 02:11 PM
  #90  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
I don't have one. I do hope something is done to protect privacy as well as public health. Unfortunately a pandemic is a civil libertarian's worst nightmare.

The only real solution is a universal, safe, effective compulsory vaccine.
It seems highly unlikely that a workable vaccine will be possible

What then?
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Old 04-10-20, 02:16 PM
  #91  
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Originally Posted by willibrord View Post
It seems highly unlikely that a workable vaccine will be possible
Why?

(My wife has been working on HIV vaccines for the last 30 years, so I am aware that there is no guarantee, but why 'highly unlikely'? )

What then?
Anti-virals. Herd immunity. Maybe it will spontaneously go away like SARS CoV-1.

Last edited by wgscott; 04-10-20 at 02:19 PM.
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Old 04-10-20, 02:19 PM
  #92  
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Originally Posted by willibrord View Post
It seems highly unlikely that a workable vaccine will be possible

What then?
Of course it will. It won't be possible next week...
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Old 04-10-20, 02:24 PM
  #93  
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Originally Posted by CycleryNorth81 View Post
You are wrong. Everybody knows triangular wheels are more efficient and more aerodynamic.

Two words--caterpillar.
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Old 04-10-20, 02:32 PM
  #94  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Why?

(My wife has been working on HIV vaccines for the last 30 years, so I am aware that there is no guarantee, but why 'highly unlikely'? )



Anti-virals. Herd immunity. Maybe it will spontaneously go away like SARS CoV-1.
It mutates rapidly. It doesn't disappear from your system it just goes dormant. Recovered patients get sick again and can re-infect.
There will be no long term herd immunity. Maybe short term 2-3 mos.
Anti-virals may or may not work. Most do not, but we can hope.

I think society will have to adapt to a persistent, endemic, difficult to treat virus. Every year close to 1% of the population will die.

The economy will contract, but eventually adapt. Most people will have to wear N95 respirators at work. International travel will almost cease. Land borders will be closed to most people but trade will continue to some extent.
There will be huge socio/economic costs.

We will survive, but society and the economy will look very different. Many will suffer.
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Old 04-10-20, 02:41 PM
  #95  
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Caronavirus has a low mutation rate because there's a proofreader. It might seem fast because there are already a couple genetically unique strains. Most other viruses mutate faster.

Mutations are random, and they happen in random places in the genome. A lot of mutations have no effect on anything because they're translated to the same thing. Some mutations have no effect because they happen in a place that doesn't matter. Most mutations are stamped out immediately because most mutations are harmful not helpful (to the virus). It's like how every teenager has a better idea how society should work but only one in a million is right.
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Old 04-10-20, 03:00 PM
  #96  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
Two words--caterpillar.
That is one word.
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Old 04-10-20, 03:01 PM
  #97  
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Orange County, CA Hoag Hospital Irvine got the first identified case late January. They now have 6 with COVID-19. Hoag Newport Beach has 1. No new cases yesterday.
I posted a few weeks ago that we were unusually low. I do not think the death rate is 1-3%. It may be 1-3% of the cases tested. I'm fairly certain many of us in CA got this in Nov, Dec, Jan and Feb.

Makes some sense when you look at where the flights from China go and where the folks gather. SFO is very low in deaths.
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Old 04-10-20, 03:19 PM
  #98  
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Originally Posted by willibrord View Post
It mutates rapidly.
True of HIV. False for SARS-CoV-2. If you don't believe me, have a look at the thousands of sequences now available on the public databases. Even if you assumed it evolved directly from SARS-CoV-1, it has about 80% sequence homology retained for 16 years. As Forrest points out, many of these mutations are silent, thanks to the redundancy of the genetic code. In structural parts of the RNA, the conservation is vastly higher. For example in the s2m of the 3'-UTR of the virus, there is only one nucleotide changed compared to SARS CoV-1. HIV is diploid, and flu is octaploid. Both have far greater opportunity for recombination and mutation than does a coronavirus, with a single genomic strand of mRNA.

It doesn't disappear from your system it just goes dormant.
This is true of HIV and other retroviruses, but not of coronaviruses. SARS-CoV-2 is an encapsidated genomic mRNA. It is not reverse-transcribed into DNA, and does not "go dormant" as a pro-virus like retroviruses do. (However, even if it did, that would not preclude a vaccine.)

Recovered patients get sick again and can re-infect.
​​​​​​​ Although there have been a few cases reported in China where someone tested positive, then negative, then positive again, there is very little evidence that people are becoming infected twice. A more probable explanation is that the second (or third) test was inaccurate.

​​​​​​​There will be no long term herd immunity. Maybe short term 2-3 mos.
​​​​​​​ You know this how?

​​​​​​​Anti-virals may or may not work. Most do not, but we can hope.
​​​​​​​ Since we haven't even gotten there yet, this statement is vacuous.

​​​​​​​I think society will have to adapt to a persistent, endemic, difficult to treat virus. Every year close to 1% of the population will die.
​​​​​​​ It is possible, but you have absolutely no evidence for this claim.

Last edited by wgscott; 04-10-20 at 03:27 PM.
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Old 04-10-20, 03:30 PM
  #99  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
Caronavirus has a low mutation rate because there's a proofreader. It might seem fast because there are already a couple genetically unique strains. Most other viruses mutate faster.

Mutations are random, and they happen in random places in the genome. A lot of mutations have no effect on anything because they're translated to the same thing. Some mutations have no effect because they happen in a place that doesn't matter. Most mutations are stamped out immediately because most mutations are harmful not helpful (to the virus). It's like how every teenager has a better idea how society should work but only one in a million is right.
It's my understanding that viruses can be challenged to mutate by vaccines. It's also my understanding that since this is a novel virus, there's much to learn yet. Let's hope we can just stay ahead of it.
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Old 04-10-20, 03:58 PM
  #100  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
True of HIV. False for SARS-CoV-2. If you don't believe me, have a look at the thousands of sequences now available on the public databases. Even if you assumed it evolved directly from SARS-CoV-1, it has about 80% sequence homology retained for 16 years. As Forrest points out, many of these mutations are silent, thanks to the redundancy of the genetic code. In structural parts of the RNA, the conservation is vastly higher. For example in the s2m of the 3'-UTR of the virus, there is only one nucleotide changed compared to SARS CoV-1. HIV is diploid, and flu is octaploid. Both have far greater opportunity for recombination and mutation than does a coronavirus, with a single genomic strand of mRNA.

This is true of HIV and other retroviruses, but not of coronaviruses. SARS-CoV-2 is an encapsidated genomic mRNA. It is not reverse-transcribed into DNA, and does not "go dormant" as a pro-virus like retroviruses do. (However, even if it did, that would not preclude a vaccine.)

​​​​​​​ Although there have been a few cases reported in China where someone tested positive, then negative, then positive again, there is very little evidence that people are becoming infected twice. A more probable explanation is that the second (or third) test was inaccurate.

​​​​​​​ You know this how?

​​​​​​​ Since we haven't even gotten there yet, this statement is vacuous.

​​​​​​​ It is possible, but you have absolutely no evidence for this claim.
We are reading about a lot of re-current cases, which previously tested negative in South Korea, Taiwan, not just China.
This is very troubling.

Based on what I have read, I would say the chances of a viable vaccine are about 30%.
Chances of a good anti-viral drug are less than that . Say 20%?

We have to look at worst case scenarios (they have all come true so far) to anticipate how we will cope.

Civilization did not end from the Black Death, although it emerged changed in many ways.

Our current society will change and survive, in many ways currently unanticipated, but change it will.

My previous post was wrong , I anticipate future fatality rates of 1/3 of 1% per year for the US or about 1 000 000 deaths per year in America, but distributed throughout the year. There are currently about 3 000 000 deaths per year . So that is a substantial increase.

We will adjust with time. I would buy stock in funeral homes right now.
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