Heads Up. The bike shortage will be through most of the 2021 season
03-30-21, 08:05 AM
#101
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03-30-21, 10:20 AM
#102
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Are you saying 70% of ships that use the Suez Canal are headed to Iceland?
03-30-21, 07:41 PM
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04-08-21, 02:34 AM
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This nifty website provides a cool way to sort/filter and see traffic through the ditch by ship type going back to the early 2010s. I'd check that stat on the bulk carriers.
04-08-21, 08:08 AM
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This nifty website provides a cool way to sort/filter and see traffic through the ditch by ship type going back to the early 2010s. I'd check that stat on the bulk carriers.
04-08-21, 05:18 PM
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That was right out of the Wall Street Journal from a few weeks ago. Consider bulk carriers include chemicals, fertilizer, LNG, crude oil, iron ore scrap paper (not so much anymore), etc. Just about everything not in a 40-foot container. It is the un-pretty stuff that noone pays attention to until commodity prices go up and we pay 2x for an aluminum frame or 30% more for steel.
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04-08-21, 11:21 PM
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And I linked the Suez Canal Authority. I am not suspicious of journalists, even remotely, but I also have enough general knowledge to know when something is fishy, and know how to do basic research, and I am shocked that they made an error this glaring. It's not like a degree of error, its orders of magnitude!
The big takeaway, despite what some others have said above, is that even if bike parts headed to N America aren't transiting the SC, bike parts headed to Europe are, and supply chains are incredibly complex and interconnected webs...we call them chains but goods within them move laterally as well. This will only serve to further impact the shortages already brought on by production disruptions caused by the pandemic. Accept it...if you're a shop, you're gonna have a lot of frustrated customers (you already know that), and if you're wrenching in your garage, plan ahead and stock the stuff you wear out, if you can get it. That's my 2 cents.
The big takeaway, despite what some others have said above, is that even if bike parts headed to N America aren't transiting the SC, bike parts headed to Europe are, and supply chains are incredibly complex and interconnected webs...we call them chains but goods within them move laterally as well. This will only serve to further impact the shortages already brought on by production disruptions caused by the pandemic. Accept it...if you're a shop, you're gonna have a lot of frustrated customers (you already know that), and if you're wrenching in your garage, plan ahead and stock the stuff you wear out, if you can get it. That's my 2 cents.
04-09-21, 05:29 PM
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On the parts side, at least some of the shortage is generated by people hoarding parts now just in case. And I can tell you we are doing it at our shop. Just like everyone else we had to overbuy now because we know we cannot get things mid summer for basic repairs. The parts an unprepared shop may need for a repair now are in thousands of bike shop back rooms across the US instead like they used to be stored in a central warehouse with 1-day shipping available. We are back to terribly inefficient storage and distribution when what we most need now is efficiency in the supply chain. The problem is thousands of small businesses are not good at cooperating together to lessen the problem. Because of near just-in-time availability of parts shops stopped stocig most parts because they were just a day away, Those days are gone and we are back to 30 years ago wit loclalzed stocking. Hoarding has tremendously magnified the problem, yet there is not a better answer.
04-09-21, 05:33 PM
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The wierd thing is in some cases for accessories like apparel, seats, racks, bar tape, cables etc. it is now turning out that a good LBS is more likely to have what you need than the big online discount chains! At least for now.
04-09-21, 05:44 PM
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This nifty website provides a cool way to sort/filter and see traffic through the ditch by ship type going back to the early 2010s. I'd check that stat on the bulk carriers.
Roughly 70% of the ships in the canal do not carry containerized freight.
Last edited by dwmckee; 04-09-21 at 09:10 PM.
04-09-21, 06:15 PM
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I just found it odd that all of it is headed to Iceland. I'm aware they produce aluminum, but that seems like a very high amount of ship activity to Iceland.
04-10-21, 01:12 AM
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In negative, yes. You claimed that 70% of the shipping (I'm assuming you mean hulls, not tonnage) is bulk...which it is not. ROROs, Crude Carriers (Tankers), and LNG Carriers, are distinctly different types of ships than bulk carriers. Nevertheless, container shipping is HUGELY important to global supply chains, and a one week blockage at the Suez Canal is having big ripple effects to global supply chains...and that's the real takeaway, it wouldn't matter if container vessels were 15% to 50% of the shipping, the simple fact is that one ship tuned sideways at a critical chokepoint stopped the movement of goods and upended global supply chains that were already severely impacted by pandemic issues at the manufacturing facilities and this is only making it worse in terms of product availability.
Key takeaway, based on something that happened to me this week, if you want to purchase something, or think you'll need to purchase it soon, and it is available now....buy it now. FOMO is real, I delayed buying a new brake caliper to upgrade my kinda okay flat mount road caliper to a proper MTB 4-pot for my gravel bike and now it and the post mount adapter is unavailable "for six weeks or more" at several retailers and "long term unavailable" at most others. I think I may be waiting for a few months to get this conversion going...
Key takeaway, based on something that happened to me this week, if you want to purchase something, or think you'll need to purchase it soon, and it is available now....buy it now. FOMO is real, I delayed buying a new brake caliper to upgrade my kinda okay flat mount road caliper to a proper MTB 4-pot for my gravel bike and now it and the post mount adapter is unavailable "for six weeks or more" at several retailers and "long term unavailable" at most others. I think I may be waiting for a few months to get this conversion going...
04-10-21, 03:49 PM
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On the parts side, at least some of the shortage is generated by people hoarding parts now just in case. And I can tell you we are doing it at our shop. Just like everyone else we had to overbuy now because we know we cannot get things mid summer for basic repairs. The parts an unprepared shop may need for a repair now are in thousands of bike shop back rooms across the US instead like they used to be stored in a central warehouse with 1-day shipping available. We are back to terribly inefficient storage and distribution when what we most need now is efficiency in the supply chain. The problem is thousands of small businesses are not good at cooperating together to lessen the problem. Because of near just-in-time availability of parts shops stopped stocig most parts because they were just a day away, Those days are gone and we are back to 30 years ago wit loclalzed stocking. Hoarding has tremendously magnified the problem, yet there is not a better answer.
04-10-21, 04:18 PM
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Just the bauxite to iceland. I guess I was providing too much detail. Sorry if that was confusing. I added that detail because it affedct aluminum production which eventually impacts buke frame and component production.
04-10-21, 04:26 PM
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The 11 speed chain shortage is getting serious right now. Not sure how long that will go on. We have had a 750 foot roll on order for 2 months now, with delivery scheduled 180 days out which is not very encouraging.
04-10-21, 05:37 PM
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I ordered two 11sp chains today from Amazon. The next thing likely to go: brake pads.
04-11-21, 01:04 AM
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04-11-21, 10:00 AM
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Brake pads have been scarce since last spring.
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06-02-21, 08:01 AM
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07-29-21, 02:00 PM
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Just got off the phone with an LBS about some lead times for wheelsets.
Chris King hubs = 9 months, minimum.
White Industry hubs = 12-16 weeks
Ouchy.
Chris King hubs = 9 months, minimum.
White Industry hubs = 12-16 weeks
Ouchy.
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07-30-21, 06:43 AM
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I'm starting to see new (used) bikes for sale. Facebook market. If a guy isn't picky on what bike he gets. They are popping up.
07-30-21, 05:04 PM
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Most manufacturers say it will be more than a year from now before the bike industru is back to 'normal'. But it will slowly and gradually get better over time.
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08-04-21, 06:55 AM
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Here is more anecdotal info on ocean cargo rates and capacity shortages that will be pushing up bike prices here in the US.
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08-04-21, 01:44 PM
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I have a co-worker who wanted to buy a Trek Checkpoint ALR 4 and the LBS told him they didn't think they'd be able to get any more for 2022 - the ones they are getting are all already spoken for.
He ordered an ALR5 instead, which they are expecting to ship in Feb 2022.
He ordered an ALR5 instead, which they are expecting to ship in Feb 2022.
08-07-21, 08:41 PM
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Great advice
Just a heads up to anyone that may be considering a new bike purchase in 2021 that the manufacturers basically will not be able to catch up with demand this year so if you have your eye on something it would be wise to snag it by March or April to be sure you can get your size and model. Some brands have cut orders to smaller dealers entirely or said they will only deliver 1/2 to 1/3 of what was ordered for some models. Some models will not be delivered until August or September, and even spare parts will be scarce in many cases. This is impacting essentially all brands and will even impact brands that are sold online. If you have something in your garage that you nolonger ride it also may be a good time to sell it as you can get top dollar right now and sell just about anything quickly. Many dealers are taking down payments and preselling bikes that are expected in so even much of what will be delivered to dealers is already presold. And many brands are telling dealers that they will not be able to order any replacement stock after their initial orders arwe delivered. This si impacting essentially all brands, but some are affected more than others. People are already calling store-based dealers many states away to find a model they want and are asking to have the bike shipped because they are being told that their local dealers cannot get the bike they want this year.
Chucky