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Bike Shortages to Continue through 2021?

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Bike Shortages to Continue through 2021?

Old 01-25-21, 12:21 PM
  #26  
Sojodave
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I'm building up a Specialized Roubaix frame and I ordered a Shimano Ultegra Di2 Groupset with Hydro brakes. I've been waiting 6 weeks and I'm not very confident it will arrive anytime soon. I've heard that Shimano is having a hard time getting materials from their vendors.

I talked to a guy at a bike shop who is in charge of ordering inventory. He said it's really hard to order bikes six months out because he doesn't know if demand is going to suddenly drop. If the vaccine kicks in, will people keep up the demand to buy bikes? Will there be a glut of used bikes on the market?
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Old 01-25-21, 02:22 PM
  #27  
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Originally Posted by Sojodave View Post
I'm building up a Specialized Roubaix frame and I ordered a Shimano Ultegra Di2 Groupset with Hydro brakes. I've been waiting 6 weeks and I'm not very confident it will arrive anytime soon. I've heard that Shimano is having a hard time getting materials from their vendors.

I talked to a guy at a bike shop who is in charge of ordering inventory. He said it's really hard to order bikes six months out because he doesn't know if demand is going to suddenly drop. If the vaccine kicks in, will people keep up the demand to buy bikes? Will there be a glut of used bikes on the market?
Supply will creep up and demand will tumble and at the intersection of the two you will get your bike. A company that makes frames, components or piece parts will not invest heavy in new facilities or capitol machinery but will add some workers or use overtime to fill the gap. A drop in demand will increase the supply.

I think the "you will not see bikes for another year" is more of a method to tamp down expectations because I don't see demand like this continuing much longer. First nice day of spring if there are no bikes, no bars, no concerts, no museums, people will find another way to amuse themselves. But fear not the demic is shortly to be ruled a thing of the past.
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Old 01-26-21, 07:39 PM
  #28  
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A used bike is the best bet, price is actually quite fair now in 2021, found 4 used bikes since 4 months ago, and sold 2, all for a great price:

Bought:
09' Specialized roubaix sl2 $1600
10' Specialized Roubaix comp $400
91' Schwinn Crosscut $60 (upgraded with brand new 9spd acera groupset and wheels which costs another $400)
09' Dahon Mu SL $200

Sold
09' Cannondale CAAD 9 $780
20' Dahon Vybe D7 $350
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Old 01-29-21, 12:26 PM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by PDKL45 View Post
Certainly looks that way, according to an Australian industry analyst. Obviously he's writing about the current market in Oceania--NZ and Oz--but his obersvatiosn seem to hold true for other markets as well, in that bike supply is fairly centralized on East Asia, Taiwan and the Mainland.

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/opin...l#.YApZ1lT7SUk

Shimano are currently underwater and it's looking increasingly unlikely that we'll see much aftermarket product in secondary markets, like Korea, where I'm based. Thankfully I'm doing okay for chains and cassettes--I have sufficient disposables to last me a while, but it's probably going to be tough going finding replacement parts, not to mention new bikes, for a good year or so more.
There is that and also with the tariffs now taking effect pretty much every major bike company has raised prices. March 2020 I bought a Canyon Ultimate CF SL 8 Disc for $2800 and in less than a year the bike has been raised by $400 to $3200 for essentially the same exact bike. I found this to be true with Scott, Giant, Felt, and other brands I follow. So even if you can find a bike I wouldn't be surprised that the bike's price has been jacked up compared to 2020.
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Old 01-29-21, 12:34 PM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by MrWasabi View Post
Hope the bike shops can make it through OK. I have a local one I haven't used yet that gets good reviews and it's close. It would suck if they close. I'm going to have them do my upgrades/changes and try to give them as much business as I can, hopefully buy a bike from them later too. I already bought the parts a while ago though thinking I'd tackle it but I'll leave it to the pros and pay them to do it right.
Shops around here still have lines out the door and a huge backlog on service. It's one of the industries that has really thrived during the pandemic. Two of our local shops are desperately trying to hire to keep up with demand.
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Old 01-29-21, 02:10 PM
  #31  
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I work in a production facility in a different industry, but the struggles are the same. With people getting sent home sick and because of contact tracing of possible exposure, it is impossible to keep a full crew working. We work overtime while we are here, but it can't make up for the loss of production during normal hours. If we get fully staffed, we run out of material because the producers are all going through the same thing. It is going to be awhile before this gets sorted out.

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Old 01-29-21, 07:26 PM
  #32  
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You don't have to frequent this Forum for too long to realize that for some people there is always a "bike shortage" they always want N+1 even when N is a large number.
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Old 01-30-21, 10:38 PM
  #33  
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Opposite experience but mainly because of luck. My daughter's birthday so went looking for a new bike for her. Women's small MTB ~$800 price range. Went to a Specialized dealer. Said forget it, no bikes, delivery date unknown. Went to the Trek dealer, he had 3-4 different colors models available. Bought one and will pick it up later.
. While looking for my daughter's bike I was also looking at gravel bikes for my self. And they actually had several models (Santa, Cruz, Giant) in my size. I was sorely tempted.
So, I needed a new rack. Spent several hours researching them. Decided on one. Looked around to buy. Seemed to be sold out every where but I was able to buy the last one from online store.
. The rack needs a 24" wheel adapter. Said backordered everywhere. Contacted the rack manufacturer. They said it was backordered. I ask nicely if they were sure they didn't have any available. They responded they could ship one to me for free. Got It within a week.
.
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Old 02-01-21, 04:37 AM
  #34  
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It's as crazy here in India; forget about bikes but even no tyres are available since the government banned tyre imports. I had to buy used vittoria tyres to fix my 2nd blow out.

The ordering window for mid 2021 bike delivery is closed for most brands and dealers can't even say when the window will open again. In hindsight I feel lucky I made impulse purchases of a gravel bike and a cf road bike 2.5 months ago. Riding the heck out of those 2 bad boys now.
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Old 02-01-21, 08:11 AM
  #35  
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I am surprised about the shortages and the stock. Bikes I can understand, rubber I can understand. It took me way longer than it should have to find brake levers last week. I don't understand the rush on non-wear parts. It's going to be a crazy summer.
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Old 02-01-21, 09:12 AM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by skenry View Post
I am surprised about the shortages and the stock. Bikes I can understand, rubber I can understand. It took me way longer than it should have to find brake levers last week. I don't understand the rush on non-wear parts. It's going to be a crazy summer.
Component availability seems to be what's holding up new bike production. I was building my new bike this winter, and wanted to equip it with a mechanical Ultegra groupset. Nope, not available. Tried to find everything individually. Nope, the front derailleurs are backordered, with no idea when they will come in. I was very lucky to find an Ultegra crankset with the correct size arms at one shop, a set of brake calipers (rim brake for me) at another, and an Ultegra Di2 'upgrade' group, with levers, derailleurs, and wiring online, shipped from England. The bike ended up costing more than I had wanted to spend, but I have to admit, I'm sort of glad things worked out this way.
LBS has zero new bikes to sell. He's only open 3 days a week for repairs. Luckily, he was able to get a contract with the city to maintain/repair all the rental e-bikes used at the city bike path to keep himself in business.
I had an old, heavy, steel bike (8 speed Claris) that I had been using on a trainer with Zwift. I put it up for sale on Craigslist, it was sold within 15 minutes of placing the ad. It's crazy out there.
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Old 02-01-21, 04:17 PM
  #37  
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With vaccine starting to become available and ramping up, it would seem that things should start to get back to normal sooner than later.

Just last week I got my first virus shot and will get my second one Feb 25.
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Old 02-01-21, 04:40 PM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by rydabent View Post
With vaccine starting to become available and ramping up, it would seem that things should start to get back to normal sooner than later.

Just last week I got my first virus shot and will get my second one Feb 25.
That is the dangerous mindset people are getting! We are not going to be through this anytime soon and telling people that because a vaccine is ramping up a little but is still is poorly mismanaged and no real changes there.

Shortages will continue for a while. Enjoy the craziness for a while and find ways to deal with it.
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Old 02-04-21, 09:21 AM
  #39  
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I already talked about trying to buy a bike at the end of last year to no avail. My largest local shop (Specialized, Giant, Pinarello, QBP dealer) is quoting 2023 delivery dates for many of the most popular complete Giant and Specialized models. Yes, 2023. There's no way this is going to look better in a few months.

My other recent experiences trying to buy bike stuff:
1. Continental GP5000TLs are out of stock in 28mm everywhere in the US with no sign of when they're coming back in stock. You can still get them from somewhat sketchy European sites.
2. I tried to buy shoe covers over the weekend. I'm a size 10. No major brand has nice, durable shoe covers in stock in my size, i looked for over an hour. Ended up buying cheap Chinese ones from Amazon.
3. I wanted to buy a Lazer Sphere Mips in a certain color and a certain size. It has been out of stock for a few months at every site and every bike shop in the US. Same is true of several of the most popular Kask models and sizes. I ended up ordering one on backorder.
4. Certain gloves, cables and chains have been hard to get a hold of for a few months now. I've been able to get what I'm looking for, but you have to search around and you have to be willing to wait weeks or months.

I get it that these are all very specific (and popular) items in very specific (and popular) sizes. Yes, it's easy to find alternatives. Yes this is a First World Problem. Still, it's interesting to me that it's the off-season here in North America and still a lot of stuff is running in short supply. By this summer, I think it's going to get really bad. I know bike shops in my area are very worried about bare shelves all this year. I would buy anything you think you might need now.

Last edited by Hiro11; 02-04-21 at 09:25 AM.
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Old 02-04-21, 12:39 PM
  #40  
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Most of us that do our own bike work by now have years worth of consumable supplies on hand. As we creep into spring, the supply chain will fill up and by mid summer the stores will be begging us to come in and spend some money. Overall the economy in the USA is strong and the pressure to put stuff on the shelves will in the very near future will be enormous. The demand is there but will not last forever. If the suppliers want to take advantage of it now is the time. And I'm sure the suppliers want to take advantage of it. Consumer demand is not something you can store for very long and the business end of the industry very well knows this.
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Old 02-04-21, 01:43 PM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by Thomas15 View Post
As we creep into spring, the supply chain will fill up and by mid summer the stores will be begging us to come in and spend some money.
I'm sure shops will be happy to see you, but it's unlikely they will be too desperate for customers once the weather gets warm. And I expect that calling ahead will be a good idea to see if they have what you want and if you need an appointment to get in. My LBS has been working by appointment only, which is a really good customer experience vs. the old overcrowded shop full of mostly people that aren't going to buy anything. There is no indication yet that the supply chain will fill up, it's still really sporadic. Once demand kicks in I'm sure there will be shortages this year on many popular items. But particularly bikes. And Shimano chains.
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Old 02-04-21, 03:42 PM
  #42  
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detroit

in Detroit the shops that are open are just doing a thriving repair business which is unusual for the middle of winter.....It looks like they are keeping their stock for the repairs ......tires are really hard to get.......no bikes.....no parts.......you might be able to to buy something but not what you want....but the price of vintage bikes have skyrocketed......shocking how much some bikes are selling for..........when spring comes I might open up one of my secret underground storage units and let some of those relics see the light of day
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Old 02-04-21, 04:52 PM
  #43  
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Originally Posted by debade View Post
Stopped at the Trek store to check out a commuter bike I hoped to purchase for my daughter’s April birthday. It can be done, I just need to wait until April 2022. The inventory looked like I missed the first days of the going out of business sale. There is no inventory at least at that Trek store.
a whole year to wait on a bicycle?
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Old 02-04-21, 04:54 PM
  #44  
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Originally Posted by Bald Paul View Post
Component availability seems to be what's holding up new bike production. I was building my new bike this winter, and wanted to equip it with a mechanical Ultegra groupset. Nope, not available. Tried to find everything individually. Nope, the front derailleurs are backordered, with no idea when they will come in. I was very lucky to find an Ultegra crankset with the correct size arms at one shop, a set of brake calipers (rim brake for me) at another, and an Ultegra Di2 'upgrade' group, with levers, derailleurs, and wiring online, shipped from England. The bike ended up costing more than I had wanted to spend, but I have to admit, I'm sort of glad things worked out this way.
LBS has zero new bikes to sell. He's only open 3 days a week for repairs. Luckily, he was able to get a contract with the city to maintain/repair all the rental e-bikes used at the city bike path to keep himself in business.
I had an old, heavy, steel bike (8 speed Claris) that I had been using on a trainer with Zwift. I put it up for sale on Craigslist, it was sold within 15 minutes of placing the ad. It's crazy out there.
there is a metal and lumber shortage. I hear prices for raw matierials are going to double
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Old 02-04-21, 05:25 PM
  #45  
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Originally Posted by coffeesnob View Post
a whole year to wait on a bicycle?
Yep. Surprise me too
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Old 02-04-21, 05:32 PM
  #46  
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The bike tools situation is not any better. I wanted to order some Shimano crank bearings removal/install tools and delivery is July 2021. What? I guess they don't have any GRX groupsets anyway so I won't need any tools. One way to save money
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Old 02-04-21, 06:18 PM
  #47  
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I got a call from my Orbea dealer today, and asked if I was still interested in an Orca. He was just notified by Orbea to get his MyO reservations in for 2022, or he might not be able to get any of them. They have not finalized pricing, or specs for the bikes yet, but I told him 100% yes, put me in for one.
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Old 02-04-21, 08:37 PM
  #48  
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Does anyone listen to the Path Podcast, from the Path bike shop in (or near?) LA? Tani, Nathan and Auk and the hosts, and Tani, the owner of the store, was talking about the issue on the most recent episode. He was playing it off as humorous, and it was, but there was an underlying edge of frustration with people still being surprised that there are no Shimano brake pads available for example. He spoke about having to call a list of people who had a Santa Cruz MTB on pre order, with deposit paid, to inform them that the bike they ordered is no longer coming. They will, however, be first in line for the 2022 models in different colorways and with uncertain components, speaking about that like they were lucky. And they sort of are; a lot of 2022 year model bikes will basically already be sold in what amounts to pre-sale purchases, where orders for 2021 model bikes roll over to 2022 models.
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Old 02-05-21, 07:16 AM
  #49  
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The Pro's Closet is cleaning up here. I bought a bike from them in December (they had a 10% sales at that time) and I've been watching their prices steadily creep upward since the beginning of the year. One or two year old bikes in good condition are being sold for prices approaching original retail now. The Pro's Closet is probably the most reputable company selling used stuff out there, and now used stuff is basically your only option for most bikes and lots of components. The Pro's Closet has got to be licking their chops looking at the situation this year.
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Old 02-05-21, 11:54 AM
  #50  
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To the individual that wants a specific frame in a specific color with specific hang-on stuff that cannot get it for whatever reason, to that individual the bike shortage will last until 2022. But the the rest of the retail buying public that are trying to decide which one of half a dozen bikes to buy, the shortage will be over sooner rather than later.

There will be some brands that will not survive this shortage. It could be for many reasons or just one reason but a company that was on the ragged edge a year ago and is unable to procure supplies from their vendors for say reason associated with credit, those will fall. Other suppliers, those with an aggressive attitude will thrive. Now is a great time to get rid of unsold inventory at high prices rather than trying to sell via discontinued clearance sales.

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