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How screwed up the bike shop business has become,

Old 06-23-21, 08:38 AM
  #151  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
Sort of, but winter biking is still a tiny fraction of summer around these parts. And I suspect the people fanatical enough about bikes to be riding in winter are also more likely to be doing their own wrenching.

I'm betting you've never been in a bike shop in NH in January. I have, it's very lonely.
And the fat bike fad has subsided to the point where they represent an even tinier fraction of sales than was the case just a couple of years ago (cf. the fixed-gear fad).
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Old 06-23-21, 08:42 AM
  #152  
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Originally Posted by prj71 View Post
$100/hour for bike service? You are kidding right?
And the last time I checked, for most work you needed to make an appointment with a wait time of about four weeks.
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Old 06-23-21, 08:43 AM
  #153  
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Originally Posted by 2old View Post
And the last time I checked, for most work you needed to make an appointment with a wait time of about four weeks.
LOL. Must be California. Where EVERYTHING is expensive.
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Old 06-23-21, 08:43 AM
  #154  
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Originally Posted by Trakhak View Post
And the fat bike fad has subsided to the point where they represent an even tinier fraction of sales than was the case just a couple of years ago (cf. the fixed-gear fad).

In the winter around here, I see no street bikes of any kind in significant numbers, and a few fat bikes on the walking trails. That's about it.
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Old 06-23-21, 08:45 AM
  #155  
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Originally Posted by Trakhak View Post
And the fat bike fad has subsided to the point where they represent an even tinier fraction of sales than was the case just a couple of years ago (cf. the fixed-gear fad).
It's not that it's a fad, it's just now the market is saturated with fat bikes so the sales have slowed down.
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Old 06-23-21, 08:50 AM
  #156  
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Originally Posted by 2old View Post
And the last time I checked, for most work you needed to make an appointment with a wait time of about four weeks.
Basically, that represents shops turning away business. A lot of people won't bother with that kind of lead time, or figure out how to do it themselves.

Is that typical over the last few years, or just since the COVID-related biking boom/shortages?

I remember people complaining about standing in line for hours to get Beanie Babies, not sure this is an example of a sustainable economic model.
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Old 06-23-21, 08:52 AM
  #157  
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Originally Posted by prj71 View Post
It's not that it's a fad, it's just now the market is saturated with fat bikes so the sales have slowed down.

From what I've seen around here, then the market "saturated" at a pretty low level. I think that's what a fad looks like.
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Old 06-23-21, 09:34 AM
  #158  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
From what I've seen around here, then the market "saturated" at a pretty low level. I think that's what a fad looks like.
No. A fad is something that comes and goes. People are still buying and riding fat bikes. Especially those that have a winter season to deal with.

The issue is...Anyone and everyone that wanted a fat bike has bought one. They did so between 2010 (Approximately when fat bikes hit the mainstream market) and 2020. Now a bunch of people have them and the sales have slowed down. The market for fat bikes is mostly rigid and a few front suspension. Being as it is...there is no reason to continue buying a new one every few years since there isn't much of an improvement right now over buying one that was made 5 years ago. Although I'm sure the bike industry will invent something that will try and make you feel the need to upgrade.

My first fat bike was an aluminum one that I purchased in 2015. I sold it in 2018 and purchased a carbon fat bike. The only improvement was that it's lighter. Now that I have a carbon fat bike, it's doubtful I'll buy another fat bike anytime within the next 20 years. It's a niche market (I only use mine in winter...about 3-4 month) and only a certain demographic will buy them so they will never sell as many bikes. The majority of bikes being sold will always be comfort/fitness bikes, mountain bikes, gravel bikes and road bikes.

Last edited by prj71; 06-23-21 at 09:40 AM.
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Old 06-23-21, 09:52 AM
  #159  
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Originally Posted by prj71 View Post
No. A fad is something that comes and goes. People are still buying and riding fat bikes. Especially those that have a winter season to deal with.

The issue is...Anyone and everyone that wanted a fat bike has bought one. They did so between 2010 (Approximately when fat bikes hit the mainstream market) and 2020. Now a bunch of people have them and the sales have slowed down. The market for fat bikes is mostly rigid and a few front suspension. Being as it is...there is no reason to continue buying a new one every few years since there isn't much of an improvement right now over buying one that was made 5 years ago. Although I'm sure the bike industry will invent something that will try and make you feel the need to upgrade.

My first fat bike was an aluminum one that I purchased in 2015. I sold it in 2018 and purchased a carbon fat bike. The only improvement was that it's lighter. Now that I have a carbon fat bike, it's doubtful I'll buy another fat bike anytime within the next 20 years. It's a niche market (I only use mine in winter...about 3-4 month) and only a certain demographic will buy them so they will never sell as many bikes. The majority of bikes being sold will always be comfort/fitness bikes, mountain bikes, gravel bikes and road bikes.

I think we could argue about the definition of a fad--new Beanie Babies are still being made and presumably sold, end of fad doesn't imply extinction. They were selling a lot of fat bikes a few years ago, now they're not. My sense is that there's a lot of fat bikes sitting in people's garages and basements year round as a lot of people realized they really aren't that into winter riding. You say tomayto, I say tomahto.

So getting to my original point, fat bikes are too much of a niche item to overcome the essentially seasonal nature of the bike business in a climate with a real winter.
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Old 06-23-21, 10:30 AM
  #160  
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I think niche is a better term for fat bikes than fad. However, I thought ebikes were only ever going to be a niche bike 10 years ago and now look at them. Within 10 years, if things go on the same trajectory, they may be the majority of sales. On the other hand, they could also just be a bubble.
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Old 06-23-21, 10:40 AM
  #161  
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Originally Posted by himespau View Post
I think niche is a better term for fat bikes than fad. However, I thought ebikes were only ever going to be a niche bike 10 years ago and now look at them. Within 10 years, if things go on the same trajectory, they may be the majority of sales. On the other hand, they could also just be a bubble.

Suffice it to say there is almost nothing riding on the difference between niche and fad, Getting back to the topic of the thread, fat bikes aren't any kind of major game changer to the nature of the LBS business.

I think a fad is often the illusion that a niche product is going to have a much bigger share of the market long-term, which causes over-investment into that particular product in the short term.
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Old 06-23-21, 11:26 AM
  #162  
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If the only population you look at is bike companies, fatbikes were a fad. They aren't going away, but some companies aren't going to be selling them. It's just not a huge market that justifies all the big companies making them. QBP can probably handle the demand. OTOH, I feel like a lot of the year-round advantages of fat tires have moved downwards into mtb.

It wasn't too hard to see that ebikes would be big in the U.S. eventually. I have a Dutch bike and I looked at the company website. Virtually all they sell is ebikes now. For a bike that is used for commuting or other utility reasons, an ebike is a natural thing. And recreationally they are also very attractive to people that aren't really enthusiasts. I imagine aging cyclists are going to adopt the performance ebikes as well. The U.S. was just behind.
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Old 06-23-21, 12:33 PM
  #163  
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Originally Posted by himespau View Post
I think niche is a better term for fat bikes than fad. However, I thought ebikes were only ever going to be a niche bike 10 years ago and now look at them. Within 10 years, if things go on the same trajectory, they may be the majority of sales. On the other hand, they could also just be a bubble.
As long as we have lazies we will have e-bikes.

I've seen so many people this year, people in their 30's and 40's that are perfectly capable of pedaling, on e-bikes. The burgeoning e-bike market isn't those with physical limitations that's for sure.
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Old 06-23-21, 02:49 PM
  #164  
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Originally Posted by indyfabz View Post
Amen!

I am one of those people who would rather spend my time learning and doing things other than working on my bikes. I love to cook and do a lot, yet I know educated, well off people who can barely boil water. I don't look down on them or think they are lazy or ignorant. My bikes generally do not require constant/frequent maintenance/work beyond what little I can do myself. Why spend the time and money on tools and learning how to perform more complicated repairs when I can simply ride to a LBS, leave my bike, make the short walk to work and pick the bike up at the end of the day? My time has a value just like money.

What I also think he misses is the fact that someone like a 2nd year grad student who lives in a third floor walkup efficiency and barely has time for a shower ain't got the time, space or resources to become an adroit mechanic. One reason shops in my city, which is home to at least three major universities, tend to do well.
I agree with the above.

I guess if people arenít making deliberate decisions thatís not always the best.

I love to learn. I just might not enjoy learning the same things someone else does.
With a brainless job and a love for learning my Audible collection is getting pretty fat.
My App Store account is messed up so Iím not able to use Libby right now.
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Old 06-23-21, 03:36 PM
  #165  
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Originally Posted by prj71 View Post
As long as we have lazies we will have e-bikes.

I've seen so many people this year, people in their 30's and 40's that are perfectly capable of pedaling, on e-bikes. The burgeoning e-bike market isn't those with physical limitations that's for sure.
I'm just curious how negatively you talk about people who drive everywhere. Most vehicular traffic in the U.S. is for trip lengths less than 5 miles that could easily be done on an ebike, probably in less time. Who's the lazy-butt? I know I have driven when I didn't want to ride because I didn't want to be sweaty at my destination. An ebike would be perfect for a trip like that. Even if the trip is fully recreational, maybe people just want to be outdoors without getting a ton of exercise. Nothing wrong with that, and it's not laziness. When my friends and I went out riding as kids, it wasn't for exercise, it was because riding bikes is fun.
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Old 06-24-21, 08:11 AM
  #166  
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Originally Posted by unterhausen View Post
maybe people just want to be outdoors without getting a ton of exercise. Nothing wrong with that, and it's not laziness. When my friends and I went out riding as kids, it wasn't for exercise, it was because riding bikes is fun.
Yup. No exercise. And that's why the U.S. ranks as one of the highest in obesity, diabetes and heart disease.

https://worldhealth.net/news/usa-ran...heart-disease/
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Old 06-24-21, 08:15 AM
  #167  
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And cycling has a problem with exercise bulimia. People on ebikes still get more exercise than people in cars or the ones watching netflix all day. As if that's any of your business.
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Old 06-24-21, 09:09 AM
  #168  
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Originally Posted by unterhausen View Post
And cycling has a problem with exercise bulimia. .
It does?

Show your work.

I was on 100 mile solstice ride last weekend with a group of people. I'm 49 years old. At mile ~70 a 65 year old lady passed me on a long uphill on her e-bike. I reached the top with slightly burning legs and lungs and slowed it down a little to recover. Meanwhile she kept going and wasn't even breathing hard. I doubt she got much exercise at all during that ride.

Last edited by prj71; 06-24-21 at 12:19 PM.
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Old 06-24-21, 12:51 PM
  #169  
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Originally Posted by prj71 View Post
As long as we have lazies we will have e-bikes.

I've seen so many people this year, people in their 30's and 40's that are perfectly capable of pedaling, on e-bikes. The burgeoning e-bike market isn't those with physical limitations that's for sure.
Iíll be one of those, Iím perfectly capable of pedaling my normal bikes and will have to pedal my evidence when I buy it.

My wife signed off on the bike so now Iím thinking I want a Koga e-World Traveller
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Old 06-24-21, 02:58 PM
  #170  
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Originally Posted by prj71 View Post
It does?

Show your work.

I was on 100 mile solstice ride last weekend with a group of people. I'm 49 years old. At mile ~70 a 65 year old lady passed me on a long uphill on her e-bike. I reached the top with slightly burning legs and lungs and slowed it down a little to recover. Meanwhile she kept going and wasn't even breathing hard. I doubt she got much exercise at all during that ride.
Why do you care how someone else rode a bike?
This is effectively no different from a person doing a century with hills and another doing a century on rail trails, then the hill rider complaining and crapping on the rail trail rider.
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Old 06-24-21, 11:58 PM
  #171  
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Originally Posted by prj71 View Post
It does?

Show your work.

I was on 100 mile solstice ride last weekend with a group of people. I'm 49 years old. At mile ~70 a 65 year old lady passed me on a long uphill on her e-bike. I reached the top with slightly burning legs and lungs and slowed it down a little to recover. Meanwhile she kept going and wasn't even breathing hard. I doubt she got much exercise at all during that ride.
So as head of the exercise police did you reprimand her for having too much fun or arrest her for not riding exactly as you demand?
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Old 06-25-21, 04:56 AM
  #172  
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Originally Posted by prj71 View Post
Yup. No exercise. And that's why the U.S. ranks as one of the highest in obesity, diabetes and heart disease.

https://worldhealth.net/news/usa-ran...heart-disease/
Exercise has very little effect on obesity.
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Old 06-25-21, 05:39 AM
  #173  
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Originally Posted by prj71 View Post
It does?

Show your work.

I was on 100 mile solstice ride last weekend with a group of people. I'm 49 years old. At mile ~70 a 65 year old lady passed me on a long uphill on her e-bike. I reached the top with slightly burning legs and lungs and slowed it down a little to recover. Meanwhile she kept going and wasn't even breathing hard. I doubt she got much exercise at all during that ride.
Because he got his ass kicked by an old lady. If she's happy more power to her. Did you verbally yell at her?
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Old 06-25-21, 09:21 AM
  #174  
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Originally Posted by CheGiantForLife View Post
Exercise has very little effect on obesity.
I wouldn't be so unequivocal about that.

Studies suggest that exercise can have a real effect.

Effects of the Amount of Exercise on Body Weight, Body Composition, and Measures of Central Obesity


There was a significant dose-response relationship between amount of exercise and amount of weight loss and fat mass loss...

Compared with controls, all exercise groups significantly decreased abdominal, minimal waist, and hip circumference measurements. There were no significant changes in dietary intake for any group...

These finding strongly suggest that, absent changes in diet, a higher amount of activity is necessary for weight maintenance and that the positive caloric imbalance observed on the overweight controls is small and can be reversed by a modest amount of exercise.

--Slentz et al, Arch Intern Med, 2004
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Old 06-25-21, 09:47 AM
  #175  
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Originally Posted by terrymorse View Post
I wouldn't be so unequivocal about that.

Studies suggest that exercise can have a real effect.
We are straying a bit from bike shops but that study seems to say a couple of things.

a. No change in diet
b. absent that, exercise was needed to reduce weight.
c. and that the caloric imbalance was small in the controls used.

So basically, if you are pretty close to neutral in calories in/calories out and don't change your diet - exercise will help lose weight. That is true but I suspect many people who need to lose weight are not that close to calorie neutral. I occasionally calculate this for myself and the portions/food types are pretty modest compared to the modern traditional western diet. In that case, diet plays the dominant role.

However, exercise does play a role I believe in creating a psychological/lifestyle approach that influences food choices (tend to think more about the fuel choices) and increases base metabolism somewhat. On the flip side, exercise can sometimes stimulate overeating as a response. Lots of pro/college era athletes go to pot after retirement because of skewed mental imaging regarding normalized food volume consumption.

Apologies for the thread derailment
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