Trakhak

And the fat bike fad has subsided to the point where they represent an even tinier fraction of sales than was the case just a couple of years ago (cf. the fixed-gear fad).

2old

And the last time I checked, for most work you needed to make an appointment with a wait time of about four weeks.

prj71

LOL. Must be California. Where EVERYTHING is expensive.

livedarklions

In the winter around here, I see no street bikes of any kind in significant numbers, and a few fat bikes on the walking trails. That's about it.

prj71

It's not that it's a fad, it's just now the market is saturated with fat bikes so the sales have slowed down.

livedarklions

Basically, that represents shops turning away business. A lot of people won't bother with that kind of lead time, or figure out how to do it themselves.

Is that typical over the last few years, or just since the COVID-related biking boom/shortages?

I remember people complaining about standing in line for hours to get Beanie Babies, not sure this is an example of a sustainable economic model.

livedarklions

From what I've seen around here, then the market "saturated" at a pretty low level. I think that's what a fad looks like.

prj71

No. A fad is something that comes and goes. People are still buying and riding fat bikes. Especially those that have a winter season to deal with.

The issue is...Anyone and everyone that wanted a fat bike has bought one. They did so between 2010 (Approximately when fat bikes hit the mainstream market) and 2020. Now a bunch of people have them and the sales have slowed down. The market for fat bikes is mostly rigid and a few front suspension. Being as it is...there is no reason to continue buying a new one every few years since there isn't much of an improvement right now over buying one that was made 5 years ago. Although I'm sure the bike industry will invent something that will try and make you feel the need to upgrade.

My first fat bike was an aluminum one that I purchased in 2015. I sold it in 2018 and purchased a carbon fat bike. The only improvement was that it's lighter. Now that I have a carbon fat bike, it's doubtful I'll buy another fat bike anytime within the next 20 years. It's a niche market (I only use mine in winter...about 3-4 month) and only a certain demographic will buy them so they will never sell as many bikes. The majority of bikes being sold will always be comfort/fitness bikes, mountain bikes, gravel bikes and road bikes.

livedarklions

I think we could argue about the definition of a fad--new Beanie Babies are still being made and presumably sold, end of fad doesn't imply extinction. They were selling a lot of fat bikes a few years ago, now they're not. My sense is that there's a lot of fat bikes sitting in people's garages and basements year round as a lot of people realized they really aren't that into winter riding. You say tomayto, I say tomahto.

So getting to my original point, fat bikes are too much of a niche item to overcome the essentially seasonal nature of the bike business in a climate with a real winter.

himespau 

I think niche is a better term for fat bikes than fad. However, I thought ebikes were only ever going to be a niche bike 10 years ago and now look at them. Within 10 years, if things go on the same trajectory, they may be the majority of sales. On the other hand, they could also just be a bubble.

livedarklions

Suffice it to say there is almost nothing riding on the difference between niche and fad, Getting back to the topic of the thread, fat bikes aren't any kind of major game changer to the nature of the LBS business.

I think a fad is often the illusion that a niche product is going to have a much bigger share of the market long-term, which causes over-investment into that particular product in the short term.

unterhausen

If the only population you look at is bike companies, fatbikes were a fad. They aren't going away, but some companies aren't going to be selling them. It's just not a huge market that justifies all the big companies making them. QBP can probably handle the demand. OTOH, I feel like a lot of the year-round advantages of fat tires have moved downwards into mtb.

It wasn't too hard to see that ebikes would be big in the U.S. eventually. I have a Dutch bike and I looked at the company website. Virtually all they sell is ebikes now. For a bike that is used for commuting or other utility reasons, an ebike is a natural thing. And recreationally they are also very attractive to people that aren't really enthusiasts. I imagine aging cyclists are going to adopt the performance ebikes as well. The U.S. was just behind.

prj71

As long as we have lazies we will have e-bikes.

I've seen so many people this year, people in their 30's and 40's that are perfectly capable of pedaling, on e-bikes. The burgeoning e-bike market isn't those with physical limitations that's for sure.

SkinGriz

I agree with the above.

I guess if people aren’t making deliberate decisions that’s not always the best.

I love to learn. I just might not enjoy learning the same things someone else does.
With a brainless job and a love for learning my Audible collection is getting pretty fat.
My App Store account is messed up so I’m not able to use Libby right now.

unterhausen

I'm just curious how negatively you talk about people who drive everywhere. Most vehicular traffic in the U.S. is for trip lengths less than 5 miles that could easily be done on an ebike, probably in less time. Who's the lazy-butt? I know I have driven when I didn't want to ride because I didn't want to be sweaty at my destination. An ebike would be perfect for a trip like that. Even if the trip is fully recreational, maybe people just want to be outdoors without getting a ton of exercise. Nothing wrong with that, and it's not laziness. When my friends and I went out riding as kids, it wasn't for exercise, it was because riding bikes is fun.

prj71

Yup. No exercise. And that's why the U.S. ranks as one of the highest in obesity, diabetes and heart disease.

https://worldhealth.net/news/usa-ran...heart-disease/

unterhausen

And cycling has a problem with exercise bulimia. People on ebikes still get more exercise than people in cars or the ones watching netflix all day. As if that's any of your business.

prj71

It does?

Show your work.

I was on 100 mile solstice ride last weekend with a group of people. I'm 49 years old. At mile ~70 a 65 year old lady passed me on a long uphill on her e-bike. I reached the top with slightly burning legs and lungs and slowed it down a little to recover. Meanwhile she kept going and wasn't even breathing hard. I doubt she got much exercise at all during that ride.

Germany_chris

I’ll be one of those, I’m perfectly capable of pedaling my normal bikes and will have to pedal my evidence when I buy it.

My wife signed off on the bike so now I’m thinking I want a Koga e-World Traveller

mstateglfr 

Why do you care how someone else rode a bike?
This is effectively no different from a person doing a century with hills and another doing a century on rail trails, then the hill rider complaining and crapping on the rail trail rider.

2old

So as head of the exercise police did you reprimand her for having too much fun or arrest her for not riding exactly as you demand?

CheGiantForLife

Exercise has very little effect on obesity.

alloo

Because he got his ass kicked by an old lady. If she's happy more power to her. Did you verbally yell at her?

terrymorse 

I wouldn't be so unequivocal about that.

Studies suggest that exercise can have a real effect.

Happy Feet

We are straying a bit from bike shops but that study seems to say a couple of things.

a. No change in diet
b. absent that, exercise was needed to reduce weight.
c. and that the caloric imbalance was small in the controls used.

So basically, if you are pretty close to neutral in calories in/calories out and don't change your diet - exercise will help lose weight. That is true but I suspect many people who need to lose weight are not that close to calorie neutral. I occasionally calculate this for myself and the portions/food types are pretty modest compared to the modern traditional western diet. In that case, diet plays the dominant role.

However, exercise does play a role I believe in creating a psychological/lifestyle approach that influences food choices (tend to think more about the fuel choices) and increases base metabolism somewhat. On the flip side, exercise can sometimes stimulate overeating as a response. Lots of pro/college era athletes go to pot after retirement because of skewed mental imaging regarding normalized food volume consumption.

Apologies for the thread derailment