Go Back  Bike Forums > Bike Forums > Professional Cycling For the Fans
Reload this Page >

giro d'italia 2022...straight-no fantasy chaser

Notices
Professional Cycling For the Fans Follow the Tour de France,the Giro de Italia, the Spring Classics, or other professional cycling races? Here's your home...

giro d'italia 2022...straight-no fantasy chaser

Old 05-10-22, 03:22 PM
  #51  
diphthong
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
diphthong's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: insane diego, california
Posts: 8,287

Bikes: 85 pinarello treviso steel, 88 nishiki olympic steel. 95 look kg 131 carbon, 11 trek madone 5.2 carbon

Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1619 Post(s)
Liked 3,087 Times in 1,670 Posts
Originally Posted by semroc
Very nice pick. When I saw him in the break I was pulling for you. Who's going to win stage 5?
found an acorn. stage five tuff to predict. finish nearly 100 km from the top of the big climb. prob time enuff for the sprinter-based teams to reassemble or screams breakaway possibly holding on just barely. so
much in play. going with magnus cort from ef.

i don’t hafta be the only one throwing out horrible predictions…it’s like a must-do during the gt’s. have at it. the more predictions, the better. otherwise, y’all just gonna get mine which are untimely and ill-informed.

what kinda odds you think i coulda gotten for kämna winning today’s stage? a c-note woulda paid off what? actually felt pretty good about that one given his performance the other day.

Last edited by diphthong; 05-10-22 at 03:28 PM.
diphthong is offline  
Old 05-10-22, 04:02 PM
  #52  
slcbob
bored of "Senior Member"
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: MD / metro DC
Posts: 2,870

Bikes: Cross-Check/Nexus commuter. Several others for various forms of play.

Mentioned: 9 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 639 Post(s)
Liked 576 Times in 445 Posts
I prognosticated. Less successfully than you -- Bardet for 4, though my Cav/Morkov for 3 was golf clap worthy. I think it was in the bizarro fantasy thread because, realistically, these guesses are the stuff of dreams.

Yes, throw your hard earned savings at Paddy Power. Kamna would have paid off. Not exactly a Rich Strike but pretty good. Better than the S&P this year.

I think I threw down Ewan and Girmay for 5 and 6, too. Perhaps a bit casually stupid. Like most things I post here. But I'm sticking with that story even though the mole threw down for MVDP in 5.
slcbob is offline  
Old 05-10-22, 10:15 PM
  #53  
semroc
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 176
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 48 Post(s)
Liked 138 Times in 60 Posts
I'll take Nibali for stage 5. Maybe he'll drop some on the descent, and hang on for dear life till the finish.
semroc is offline  
Likes For semroc:
Old 05-10-22, 10:36 PM
  #54  
sincos
Full Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2020
Posts: 245
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 98 Post(s)
Liked 127 Times in 74 Posts
I guess we answered the Dumoulin question. Jebel Jais was not an early season/not in form yet outlier.
This is a big race for Astana, but with Miguel Angel Headcase having a hipcase and Nibali showing his age, what's Plan C?
I expected better from a couple of long-shots Foss and Gall, and some climbers like Narvaez and Anthony Perez had a terrible day. Oh well. But speaking of Plan C, what's JVs?
sincos is offline  
Old 05-10-22, 11:36 PM
  #55  
diphthong
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
diphthong's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: insane diego, california
Posts: 8,287

Bikes: 85 pinarello treviso steel, 88 nishiki olympic steel. 95 look kg 131 carbon, 11 trek madone 5.2 carbon

Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1619 Post(s)
Liked 3,087 Times in 1,670 Posts
it’s a long race. a few more dudes are gonna fall out of contention and one or two will ride back into the frame. it’s the first week.
diphthong is offline  
Old 05-11-22, 08:29 AM
  #56  
MinnMan
Senior Member
 
MinnMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 5,735

Bikes: 2022 Salsa Beargrease Carbon Deore 11, 2020 Salsa Warbird GRX 600, 2020 Canyon Ultimate CF SLX disc 9.0 Di2, 2020 Catrike Eola, 2016 Masi cxgr, 2011, Felt F3 Ltd, 2010 Trek 2.1, 2009 KHS Flite 220

Mentioned: 19 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4268 Post(s)
Liked 2,938 Times in 1,812 Posts
Astana is hurting for sure.

Here's a question that sort of answers itself. On stage 4, Kamna and Lopez clearly made a deal to work together. Good for them. But the calculation that they did (particularly Kamna) couldn't have been made with information they held in their heads. In other words, it seems very unlikely that Kamna knew that Lopez was going to take the Maglia Rosa and therefore be happy to take second on the stage.

He must have got that information from his DS on the radio, no?

It just makes me wonder how different all the dynamics would be without the radios. Or maybe it simply would have been that Lopez would have had to explain it to Kamna on the road...
MinnMan is offline  
Old 05-11-22, 10:27 AM
  #57  
MinnMan
Senior Member
 
MinnMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 5,735

Bikes: 2022 Salsa Beargrease Carbon Deore 11, 2020 Salsa Warbird GRX 600, 2020 Canyon Ultimate CF SLX disc 9.0 Di2, 2020 Catrike Eola, 2016 Masi cxgr, 2011, Felt F3 Ltd, 2010 Trek 2.1, 2009 KHS Flite 220

Mentioned: 19 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4268 Post(s)
Liked 2,938 Times in 1,812 Posts
Tell me that it's too early to judge, but I'm thinking that Girmay is riding for the wrong team. He is up there i the bunch at every sprint stage, but would do much better in them.if he had a team with experienced and strong lead-out support.
MinnMan is offline  
Old 05-11-22, 11:05 AM
  #58  
semroc
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 176
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 48 Post(s)
Liked 138 Times in 60 Posts
Why did Alpecin Fenix drop the hammer on the big climb today? They didn't even contest for the win. Horner will probably call them knuckleheads. Great stage though. Sure like McEwen and Kelly calling the action.
semroc is offline  
Old 05-11-22, 12:09 PM
  #59  
GrainBrain
Senior Member
 
GrainBrain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Central Io-way
Posts: 2,655

Bikes: LeMond Zurich, Giant Talon 29er

Mentioned: 17 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1218 Post(s)
Liked 609 Times in 458 Posts
Originally Posted by MinnMan
Tell me that it's too early to judge, but I'm thinking that Girmay is riding for the wrong team. He is up there i the bunch at every sprint stage, but would do much better in them.if he had a team with experienced and strong lead-out support.
Same could be said about quite a few sprinters. I'm curious to see how he progresses in this Giro. I'd hope to see Girmay continuously improve his positioning. It's why I'm a fan of Ewan, Sagan - they've had great wins from simply picking the right wheels to follow - plus that intuitive positioning.

I've said before MvdP seems to rely on brutal power over intuitiveness. Oof today he burns the whole team just to get 78th or something? That's awful.

Gaviria -- soon! Soon.

Reminder of the sportsmanship award to Bardet as he assists with Dainese leadout.

I've got Caleb Ewan for stage 6 tomorrow -- plenty of time to change that rear tire before the finish
GrainBrain is offline  
Old 05-11-22, 12:10 PM
  #60  
GrainBrain
Senior Member
 
GrainBrain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Central Io-way
Posts: 2,655

Bikes: LeMond Zurich, Giant Talon 29er

Mentioned: 17 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1218 Post(s)
Liked 609 Times in 458 Posts
From stage 4 ... Pretty sure Kamna brake checked Lopez just to be safe on that last corner ...
GrainBrain is offline  
Likes For GrainBrain:
Old 05-11-22, 12:16 PM
  #61  
MinnMan
Senior Member
 
MinnMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 5,735

Bikes: 2022 Salsa Beargrease Carbon Deore 11, 2020 Salsa Warbird GRX 600, 2020 Canyon Ultimate CF SLX disc 9.0 Di2, 2020 Catrike Eola, 2016 Masi cxgr, 2011, Felt F3 Ltd, 2010 Trek 2.1, 2009 KHS Flite 220

Mentioned: 19 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4268 Post(s)
Liked 2,938 Times in 1,812 Posts
Originally Posted by semroc
Why did Alpecin Fenix drop the hammer on the big climb today? They didn't even contest for the win. Horner will probably call them knuckleheads. Great stage though. Sure like McEwen and Kelly calling the action.
To drop the sprinters. And it worked., They dropped Cav, Ewan, and Demare in the process. Only Demare clawed back on and stuck it to them.
MinnMan is offline  
Likes For MinnMan:
Old 05-11-22, 12:24 PM
  #62  
semroc
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 176
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 48 Post(s)
Liked 138 Times in 60 Posts
Originally Posted by MinnMan
To drop the sprinters. And it worked., They dropped Cav, Ewan, and Demare in the process. Only Demare clawed back on and stuck it to them.
Oh right. I forgot MVDP was in the sprinters jersey.
semroc is offline  
Old 05-11-22, 11:50 PM
  #63  
diphthong
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
diphthong's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: insane diego, california
Posts: 8,287

Bikes: 85 pinarello treviso steel, 88 nishiki olympic steel. 95 look kg 131 carbon, 11 trek madone 5.2 carbon

Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1619 Post(s)
Liked 3,087 Times in 1,670 Posts
stage six horrible prediction...as much as it pains me to say it...air cav.
diphthong is offline  
Old 05-12-22, 05:57 AM
  #64  
MinnMan
Senior Member
 
MinnMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 5,735

Bikes: 2022 Salsa Beargrease Carbon Deore 11, 2020 Salsa Warbird GRX 600, 2020 Canyon Ultimate CF SLX disc 9.0 Di2, 2020 Catrike Eola, 2016 Masi cxgr, 2011, Felt F3 Ltd, 2010 Trek 2.1, 2009 KHS Flite 220

Mentioned: 19 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4268 Post(s)
Liked 2,938 Times in 1,812 Posts
Originally Posted by semroc
I'll take Nibali for stage 5. Maybe he'll drop some on the descent, and hang on for dear life till the finish.
I'm not a good guesser either.
MinnMan is offline  
Old 05-12-22, 11:24 AM
  #65  
GrainBrain
Senior Member
 
GrainBrain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Central Io-way
Posts: 2,655

Bikes: LeMond Zurich, Giant Talon 29er

Mentioned: 17 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1218 Post(s)
Liked 609 Times in 458 Posts
I would like to know what Gaviria is thinking sometimes. That seemed crazy to watch him shoulder check Bol.
GrainBrain is offline  
Likes For GrainBrain:
Old 05-12-22, 12:36 PM
  #66  
diphthong
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
diphthong's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: insane diego, california
Posts: 8,287

Bikes: 85 pinarello treviso steel, 88 nishiki olympic steel. 95 look kg 131 carbon, 11 trek madone 5.2 carbon

Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1619 Post(s)
Liked 3,087 Times in 1,670 Posts
stage seven looks like fun. expecting de gendt to take a flyer. kämna's going to want to pad his kom lead. this stage could further thin the gc contenders with all the wiggles and giggles. horrible prediction time...the green bullet.
diphthong is offline  
Old 05-12-22, 02:25 PM
  #67  
slcbob
bored of "Senior Member"
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: MD / metro DC
Posts: 2,870

Bikes: Cross-Check/Nexus commuter. Several others for various forms of play.

Mentioned: 9 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 639 Post(s)
Liked 576 Times in 445 Posts
Originally Posted by GrainBrain
I would like to know what Gaviria is thinking sometimes. That seemed crazy to watch him shoulder check Bol.
I wonder if he has been training with Bouhani.
slcbob is offline  
Likes For slcbob:
Old 05-12-22, 02:33 PM
  #68  
slcbob
bored of "Senior Member"
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: MD / metro DC
Posts: 2,870

Bikes: Cross-Check/Nexus commuter. Several others for various forms of play.

Mentioned: 9 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 639 Post(s)
Liked 576 Times in 445 Posts
Originally Posted by ooga-booga
stage seven looks like fun. expecting de gendt to take a flyer. kämna's going to want to pad his kom lead. this stage could further thin the gc contenders with all the wiggles and giggles. horrible prediction time...the green bullet.
Not Nibali?

So much for Rule 87. C'mon, man. Caleb's due some luck, isn't he?

I have zero idea who will win from the break but it will be a heckuva fight to get there. Go git some, Alejandro.
slcbob is offline  
Likes For slcbob:
Old 05-12-22, 06:59 PM
  #69  
semroc
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 176
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 48 Post(s)
Liked 138 Times in 60 Posts
I'll pick Bilbao for stage 7
semroc is offline  
Likes For semroc:
Old 05-12-22, 07:41 PM
  #70  
sincos
Full Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2020
Posts: 245
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 98 Post(s)
Liked 127 Times in 74 Posts
Originally Posted by GrainBrain
I would like to know what Gaviria is thinking sometimes. That seemed crazy to watch him shoulder check Bol.
I think he went for a gap that didn't exist. The shoulder check was trying to stay upright when you're trying not to clip your front wheel on the guy just ahead. I think. Actually Bauhaus did that to Girmay on the previous stage, barging him into the hoardings. Fortunately for Bauhaus, Girmay not only stayed up but beat him in the sprint, so Bauhaus didn't get relegated.

BTW, what kind of stage ends up with 152 riders in the leading group??
sincos is offline  
Likes For sincos:
Old 05-12-22, 11:34 PM
  #71  
sincos
Full Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2020
Posts: 245
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 98 Post(s)
Liked 127 Times in 74 Posts
Wondering if Ineos will send Sivakov or UAE Ulissi as a rabbit. Maybe Hamilton for BEX, but they don't seem to be the most tactically astute of outfits. Have Trek and BEX do the work. If either Bilbao or Landa go I think Ineos will shut it down. Will also be interested in seeing if Dumoulin can work himself into climbing form.
sincos is offline  
Likes For sincos:
Old 05-13-22, 01:34 AM
  #72  
diphthong
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
diphthong's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: insane diego, california
Posts: 8,287

Bikes: 85 pinarello treviso steel, 88 nishiki olympic steel. 95 look kg 131 carbon, 11 trek madone 5.2 carbon

Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1619 Post(s)
Liked 3,087 Times in 1,670 Posts
Originally Posted by sincos
Wondering if Ineos will send Sivakov or UAE Ulissi as a rabbit. Maybe Hamilton for BEX, but they don't seem to be the most tactically astute of outfits. Have Trek and BEX do the work. If either Bilbao or Landa go I think Ineos will shut it down. Will also be interested in seeing if Dumoulin can work himself into climbing form.
was thinking the exact same thing with the exact same three riders. tales of brave ulissi has been berry berry quiet for too long...a few years ago, woulda picked him outright for this stage.
he could win it but feeling better about sivakov or hamilton's chances.
diphthong is offline  
Old 05-13-22, 01:37 AM
  #73  
diphthong
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
diphthong's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: insane diego, california
Posts: 8,287

Bikes: 85 pinarello treviso steel, 88 nishiki olympic steel. 95 look kg 131 carbon, 11 trek madone 5.2 carbon

Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1619 Post(s)
Liked 3,087 Times in 1,670 Posts
Originally Posted by slcbob
Not Nibali?

So much for Rule 87. C'mon, man. Caleb's due some luck, isn't he?

I have zero idea who will win from the break but it will be a heckuva fight to get there. Go git some, Alejandro.
would love to see nibbles take the victory.

rule 87 incurred the wrath of the cycling gods when he stated his desire to win a stage in all three gt's without finishing all three.
it's been all downhill and pavement surfing for him since, hasn't it? be careful what you wish for...

bora still has four guys less than 3 minutes in arrears re: the maglia rosa. thinking one or two may fall out of that grouping on stage seven
but if they don't, might portend well for the last week for team peter who(m)?

Last edited by diphthong; 05-13-22 at 01:49 AM.
diphthong is offline  
Old 05-13-22, 03:04 AM
  #74  
slcbob
bored of "Senior Member"
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: MD / metro DC
Posts: 2,870

Bikes: Cross-Check/Nexus commuter. Several others for various forms of play.

Mentioned: 9 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 639 Post(s)
Liked 576 Times in 445 Posts
Originally Posted by MinnMan
Tell me that it's too early to judge, but I'm thinking that Girmay is riding for the wrong team. He is up there i the bunch at every sprint stage, but would do much better in them.if he had a team with experienced and strong lead-out support.
There was some chatter post-Wevelgem about his contract, I don't recall hearing any resolution, but I think Intermarche WG may have doubled down to extend him.

Stages 5 and 6 similar results: IWG went all in to get him to a decent wheel near the end (recognizing they don't have the juice for a DIY leadout), Girmay seemed to have the legs, but couldn't navigate the seething mass. It happens to everyone sometimes, but I think we're seeing his inexperience.

Girmay and most sprinters would benefit from strong lead-out support. I think Girmay"s hot topic now is to continue his apprenticeship, ideally with a mentor / sprinter whisperer who can accelerate him along. No pun intended, just tripped over it.

I don't know how that works in practice, but we've heard it before in theory with, for example, pre-Lazarus Cav for Jakobsen and Bennett, or the way sage leadout men lift a boot sprinter.

Net: he might do better with one great lead rider (or even coach) than four good ones.
slcbob is offline  
Old 05-13-22, 03:16 AM
  #75  
slcbob
bored of "Senior Member"
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: MD / metro DC
Posts: 2,870

Bikes: Cross-Check/Nexus commuter. Several others for various forms of play.

Mentioned: 9 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 639 Post(s)
Liked 576 Times in 445 Posts
Originally Posted by ooga-booga
was thinking the exact same thing with the exact same three riders. tales of brave ulissi has been berry berry quiet for too long...a few years ago, woulda picked him outright for this stage.
he could win it but feeling better about sivakov or hamilton's chances.
Perhaps with half of Astana. What else can they do? Conti?

No chance for Landa & Bilbao, or anyone else under 3 min back on GC. Like Ciccone. Trek seem to want to work to keep the Jersey on Lopez so a Trek man in the brake may not play.anyway.

Ulissi just over 5 might not set off all the alarms.
slcbob is offline  
Likes For slcbob:

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.