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Just took FTP test for first time, what's a reasonable improvement goal?

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Just took FTP test for first time, what's a reasonable improvement goal?

Old 08-08-21, 07:23 AM
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tyguy2137
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Just took FTP test for first time, what's a reasonable improvement goal?

So I just started cycling in late May and have been biking 5-10 hours a week in an unstructured manner, going to group rides and just occasionally trying to get top 10 on some short local Strava segments. I just got a power meter yesterday and decided to do an FTP test so I can start to train with structure. I ended up with an FTP of 238 and a watts per kilo of 2.9 (on admittedly fairly tired legs as I basically did 4 hard group rides in a row this week before attempting the test).

I'm about to do some structured training through trainer road. I'm am curious as to what gains I should be able to expect when I retest at the end of the 6 week block? Since I have have been cycling for about 3 months now, will I still see a lot of newby gains? I'm just curious so I can have a goal in mind when I do the next FTP test.

Also, I'd be curious to know your opinions on how different my FTP test would have been had I done it fresh instead of dead legged. Would it have been the same or a bit higher?
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Old 08-08-21, 09:22 AM
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Ideally you would test on fresh legs, but the main thing is to have a number to start with. Plug it in, follow the plan, and you will see improvement. If you’re just starting out, the main thing is to be consistent.
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Old 08-08-21, 09:29 AM
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If you were not an endurance athlete like a x country skier or marathoner, I'd day 300 watts is possible in 1-2 years. 20 watts for fresh legs. Just a SWAG
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Old 08-08-21, 04:20 PM
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You also get "better" at riding/pacing FTP tests, which is worth a few watts. Training gains will depend on you current level of fitness, how well you train/recover, genetics. It's a real "piece of string" question. If you are "untrained" then simply riding around more will see gains. If you've quite literally just started riding a couple of months ago and are hitting near enough 3w/kg that's a very good start. Aiming for a specific number can be a little counter productive. Enjoy riding, train if you feel the need. A six week block is nothing in the scheme of things so don't feel you need to train at this stage.


Originally Posted by tyguy2137
Also, I'd be curious to know your opinions on how different my FTP test would have been had I done it fresh instead of dead legged. Would it have been the same or a bit higher?
Why don't you try it and find out?
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Old 08-08-21, 05:24 PM
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I expect you will make significant gains over the next 12 months. Starting with a base of 238W and following a structured training routine, I think 300W is a reasonable mid-term target to aim for. But not in 6 weeks! I wouldn't even think about short term gains like that. You will probably measure well over 250W on fresh legs and with 6 weeks of quality training, but consistency is what you are really looking for. Beware of "newbie" over-training. A lot of guys smash themselves really hard for the first 6 months or so, see some pretty impressive gains and then completely blow up! So don't fall into that trap. It's a bit like crash dieting. Make sure you build up the training load gradually at a sustainable level. Follow the advice on Trainer Road carefully and don't try to accelerate your progress. Take your recovery time seriously.
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Old 08-08-21, 05:59 PM
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In 2019 I went from an FTP of 230W on modest cycling (about 2-3 hours a week) in May to 280 by September 2019 on 6-7 hours a week. After sinking back to about 250 by Fall 2020 I've been working really hard and my FTP is now about 285-290. I tested at 303 once (319W for 20 minutes) from a Zwift race that lasted 28 minutes and I must have been feeling really good because that's the only time I've been above 300W for 20 minutes (or even 15 minutes).

So... in six weeks I think you can get to 260. Some of it from working harder and some of it from less fatigue and better pacing.
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Old 08-09-21, 09:16 AM
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I think first you need to think about a goal you'd like to achieve. A tangible result. This could be anything from moving up from an A group ride to the "weeknight worlds" group, win a cyclocross race, finish a 40k TT under an hour, etc.....

From there, look at what type of fitness the goal demands of you.

Then I'd worry about the training plans, hours, and perhaps lastly "FTP".

Personally FTP does matter as time trial is my hobby. Being able to deliver on 20min up to 60min power is the name of the game. But that's actually a rarity in many things.

So:
1. Pick a goal
2. Research what kind of fitness your goal demands
3. Research some training plans to meet the goal
4. Perhaps look at making your "maybe 5 maybe 10 hours" schedule more predictable if possible.
5. Start on the plan after doing a test, or set of tests......that would cater well to doing the workouts your goal demands.

238w for 20min you can certainly stand to make some quick gains by adding structure. I would say though once folks get closer to the 280w range for an actual hour.......it's going to get hard. Weight dependent a bit as there's no shortage of 100+ kg weight dudes on Zwift somehow doing 300w for an hour.

Also, the whole 95% thing is bunk. It's a rarity for someone to be capable of actually doing 95% of their 20min PR for a whole hour. As most folks never have to go all out for a whole hour anyway as it isn't super useful to most bike races mortals do. It takes something like a pro, a time triallist, or a triathlete to get into the realm of actually reproducing a full 95% of 20min power. Instead, use 92%.
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Old 08-09-21, 09:34 AM
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“FTP is the highest power that a rider can maintain in a quasi-steady state without fatiguing for approximately one hour.” Per Andrew Coggan.

FTP can be anywhere from 40-70 minutes or about an hour. Nobody sees the words, "about, quasi-steady state or fatigue"

Constantly testing FTP can be counterproductive, almost like watching a pot boiling except putting your hand in the water once in a while for fun

Like BurntheSheep, I would try to find an interesting event to train for. I improved my FTP a good amount pre-Covid by focusing on breaking 20 minutes for 10 miles and also some climbing personal bests. I was also working on fitness to go under 4 hours for a hundred. More tangible and not so hard to see results. FTP tests are not fun Getting suitable roads to do "1 hour tests" is very difficult. Zwift races puts you on the rails from the gun and never seem to let up from my experience, so, I tend to find data from those races to reflect my fitness pretty well.
/
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Old 08-09-21, 10:08 AM
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Originally Posted by GhostRider62
“FTP is the highest power that a rider can maintain in a quasi-steady state without fatiguing for approximately one hour.” Per Andrew Coggan.

FTP can be anywhere from 40-70 minutes or about an hour. Nobody sees the words, "about, quasi-steady state or fatigue"

Constantly testing FTP can be counterproductive, almost like watching a pot boiling except putting your hand in the water once in a while for fun

Like BurntheSheep, I would try to find an interesting event to train for. I improved my FTP a good amount pre-Covid by focusing on breaking 20 minutes for 10 miles and also some climbing personal bests. I was also working on fitness to go under 4 hours for a hundred. More tangible and not so hard to see results. FTP tests are not fun Getting suitable roads to do "1 hour tests" is very difficult. Zwift races puts you on the rails from the gun and never seem to let up from my experience, so, I tend to find data from those races to reflect my fitness pretty well.
/
How much did it take to get around the 20min mark for 10?

Until my kids hit high school I doubt I'll have the training volume to ever get much past maybe 28mph or so.
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Old 08-09-21, 12:05 PM
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Originally Posted by burnthesheep
How much did it take to get around the 20min mark for 10?

Until my kids hit high school I doubt I'll have the training volume to ever get much past maybe 28mph or so.
I am on a recumbent due to health issues, so it isn't helpful. It only took around 315 watts IIRC for 19:30. It should have only taken 285 but the day I had to do it was lousy, cool and a very slight headwind. I make more power on an upright. Laying down isn't good for me to make power. I am not so young. If I had a good TT upright bike, I suppose a better goal would have been sub 22. I do in the low 23 range with strap on bars and nothing too fancy aero
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Old 08-09-21, 12:44 PM
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I'm shooting for sub 20 on as close to 320 as I can on the TT bike. The UK TT folks doing 30mph on 300w on a TT bike is usually those super dangerous motorway TT's with 60mph or faster vehicles whizzing by every few seconds. No wonder.

Still some work to do on both efficiency and the old engine. The engine will require the kids get to high school so I can increase training volume. They take a good bit of time these days, which is fine as it is their golden years of spending time with us since they want to at the younger age versus be forced to.
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Old 08-09-21, 04:02 PM
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Originally Posted by burnthesheep

Also, the whole 95% thing is bunk.
I agree it is highly likely to be overly optimistic for a true 1 hour power, but if you are just using it as a simple benchmark reference to measure future gains then it doesn't really matter as long as you follow the exact same test procedure.
I don't think the OP actually mentioned what type of FTP test they actually did. It could have been a simple ramp test rather than a 20 min effort. Or even a 2x8. Again it doesn't really matter as long as they compare apples vs apples when re-testing at the end of the training block.

I also agree about setting some real life functional performance targets, but tracking your FTP is not a bad starting point while ramping up fitness. Initial gains with structured training are likely to be quite impressive and that should provide motivation. But sooner or later you require more tangible goals. My personal goals are based around completing various challenging events in a target time. I only test FTP and other performance metrics to set accurate power targets for structured training. As the OP is going to use Trainer Road then their ramp test FTP will be used as a basis to set interval power targets.
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Old 08-09-21, 04:11 PM
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The problem is 95% of the 20 minute test is if the rider did not empty the tank, the functional reserve capacity or W' will inflate the aerobic component. Some riders have a huge (over 30 Kj) reserve and others like me only have 15 Kjoules. 15 Kjoules over 1,200 seconds adds 12.5 watts to the 20 minute power. If a rider makes 300 watts for 20 minutes and in my case, 95% is accurate but many riders have over 25 Kj
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Old 08-09-21, 04:19 PM
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Originally Posted by PeteHski
I agree it is highly likely to be overly optimistic for a true 1 hour power, but if you are just using it as a simple benchmark reference to measure future gains then it doesn't really matter as long as you follow the exact same test procedure.
I don't think the OP actually mentioned what type of FTP test they actually did. It could have been a simple ramp test rather than a 20 min effort. Or even a 2x8. Again it doesn't really matter as long as they compare apples vs apples when re-testing at the end of the training block.

I also agree about setting some real life functional performance targets, but tracking your FTP is not a bad starting point while ramping up fitness. Initial gains with structured training are likely to be quite impressive and that should provide motivation. But sooner or later you require more tangible goals. My personal goals are based around completing various challenging events in a target time. I only test FTP and other performance metrics to set accurate power targets for structured training. As the OP is going to use Trainer Road then their ramp test FTP will be used as a basis to set interval power targets.
Agreed. An hour is too long and not totally useful for most. 20min is fine. Also fine to do 10mi or so. Some runners do a mile test, some a 5k, some a 10k. Whatever works and is a good comparison tool to work from.
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Old 08-09-21, 04:35 PM
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Originally Posted by burnthesheep
Agreed. An hour is too long and not totally useful for most. 20min is fine. Also fine to do 10mi or so. Some runners do a mile test, some a 5k, some a 10k. Whatever works and is a good comparison tool to work from.
I actually do the Sufferfest 4DP test as a benchmark. It is f****** brutal! It consists of 2x full-on max power 10 sec sprints, a 5 min VO2 interval, a 20 min FTP interval and last but not least, a 1 min full gas effort with whatever you have left in the tank! It's a test I do maybe twice a year.
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Old 08-10-21, 06:08 AM
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I've been doing the style of updating workouts based on most recent workout data. I do a hard Zwift Alp climb once in a while and will use that for road and I do some distance of TT between 20 and 60min often enough I can use that.

I have personally been much more successful in hitting workout zones after utilizing my 40k TT bike power for that bike's workouts and my 45min Alpe time on Zwift for road bike workouts. So, 270 and 280 respectively.

The 92% oddly enough works out pretty good the opposite direction also. I can do right at about 292 for 20 on the TT bike and did do 305 for 20 on the road bike. Both dividing the longer numbers by 0.92.

I feel like your 4DP thing is a good thing though as once power gets into repeatable VO2 efforts, sometimes folks can't do the % over 100 in those sets by just basing it off 20min or full 45min t0 70min times.
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Old 08-10-21, 08:51 AM
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Originally Posted by burnthesheep

I feel like your 4DP thing is a good thing though as once power gets into repeatable VO2 efforts, sometimes folks can't do the % over 100 in those sets by just basing it off 20min or full 45min t0 70min times.
Yes the 4DP helps to set accurate targets for VO2 and shorter sprint efforts. It just gives a more accurate power profile across the various time intervals. I use the Sufferfest training plans, so it makes sense for me to use their 4DP test. They have a more simple ramp test as well, which estimates FTP and VO2 max power. I find that they correlate pretty well for me, but it doesn't seem to work for everyone. A lot of people report over-estimated FTP results for the ramp test vs 4DP. I'm not surprised as the 4DP test is really hard to nail properly. I usually take the 4DP at the start and end of season and perhaps do a couple of ramp tests in-between. My power is pretty consistent, so I'm not making big changes to my interval targets.
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