robertj298 

I'm wondering if the shortage of new cars, the price increase of used cars going up
and the price of gas going up will affect bicycle prices?

CliffordK

Some of the peak bike sales were during the mid 70's when gas prices went bonkers.

I'd expect to see quite a few correlations between bikes and the economy. Although it is complex.

High fuel prices ==> more bike sales
Recession ==> higher bike sales. Bull economy ==> lower bike sales.

At this point, the economy is recovering well from COVID, but struggling with supply issues throughout the economy. Bike sales were up during COVID, and may continue for a few years, but may eventually drop again.

shawn_dubs

Well first there have to be bikes...

www . theglobeandmail . com/business/article-its-turmoil-why-the-global-bike-shortage-wont-end-soon (paywalled)

gist...

Bike shops have already preordered everything they need for 2023 and will be placing 2024 orders soon.

Customers are preordering bikes as far out as 2023.

Every bike being manufactured in 2022 is spoken for already.


I _know_ there _are_ (some) bikes, but I guess not quite the right mix of bikes? Anyway, if things will be pre-ordered through 2024, I'd think not, but also, the boom is on, though I'm not sure the boom can/would get much.. boomier? e.g. I'm not sure there are a similar number of people waiting in the wings for the other shoe to drop. Those likely to ever try biking are trying it. We might get a few more, but not the same proportion. In other words I'm not sure the demand will be enough to move prices noticeably.

That said, I think some things will depend on what happens when the orders get here and if there's still a general shipping crunch/container shortage, etc, at the time. For example, at work, it used to cost us $5-7K to ship a container from China. Presently it's up over $20K and climbing. We've had no choice but to pass that cost burden along to our distributors. These are goods that were ordered months ago, and back then shipping was $12K. So even though bike shops have ordered, will a massive freight surcharge be passed on to them, and thus on to us?

canklecat

Automobile and fuel prices are only one factor in the whole mess.

The entire manufacturing and supply chain has been disrupted by the pandemic, starting around late December or early January in China. One company that makes and supports cycling computers began making excuses in early January for delays in fixing glitches in the firmware and app, or delays in delivering product. They claimed it was due to the New Year. We know now from medical research studies published by doctors and scientists in China that the real reason for the delay was the SARS epidemic that was spreading rapidly in China by December 2019, with employee illnesses dragging manufacturing and shipping to a crawl. But in early January 2020 businesses in China were under extreme pressure to lie about the real reasons for delays.

Shortages and high prices in bicycles and components are due to factors that differ from the automotive supply chain. Bikes aren't necessities in much of the world. They're certainly luxuries in the US. We already have plenty of bikes for the basic needs of our comparatively tiny demographic of bicycle commuters. Any mechanically sound bike costing $25-$200 is good enough for commuting and basic errands. A shortage of high end bikes has almost zero impact on the overall economy. It seems like a big deal from our insular perspective, but in the grand scheme of things it affects only a tiny fraction of the US economy.

But a shortage of automobiles and components can drag down the entire economy. In much of the US people need reliable motor vehicles for commuting and business. Bicycles are not a substitute for folks who moved 50 miles from their jobs in order to buy a home on a rural acre, taking advantage of lower taxes, cheap fuel, etc., to justify commuting 50-100 miles a day. Heck, I did that too back in the 1980s-'90s, because we got more bang for the buck living in rural areas with lower property taxes, etc., and commuting long distances. My job already involved a lot of driving anyway.

Another factor is unrelated to the pandemic. Global shipping has seen a record high number of losses of cargo and entire ships at sea. That's due to a combination of factors, ranging from badly neglected ships to rougher seas that some experts attribute to a climate crisis.

Even when ships made it through, in some ports cargo sat for months awaiting delivery.

There's a domino effect from these complications, affecting the food chain as well. Again, a climate crisis, delays in delivery, more expensive shipping costs, etc.

An interconnected planet is great when everything comes together. Now we're seeing just a mere taste of how badly things can go wrong when there's a single disruption, let alone a combination of unrelated disruptions.

RustyJames 

Oh boy, give me soapbox.

I work in the car industry and supply is still looking grim. 1/3, or more, of the cars arriving to dealerships are pre sold and there is a feeding frenzy for the remaining allocation.

One interesting aspect is the shortage of shipping containers for cars coming from overseas. A container used to be ~$1000 and now they are $8-9k. Also, room on the cargo ships is tight and that telegraphs to everything.

Good-ish news for many here is that despite a dearth of new parts we can be indifferent and continue to enjoy our sordid affair with old machinery the majority of the population doesn’t give a toss about.

I’ll stop because I could blow up this thread. In the wise words of home brew beer guru Charlie Papazian, “Stay calm, have a home brew “.

canklecat

I worked in the automobile industry for a few years in the 1980s, in new car sales for a couple of dealerships (Mazda and Ford, then Nissan), then for a wholesale broker for higher end European cars, mostly Mercedes and BMWs, occasionally Porsches, and even more rarely Rolls and others. It was an eye-opening experience. I went in with the cliched opinion that the car sales industry is crooked, but I needed the job. I came out realizing the customers are just as bad. If customers think car salesmen are liars, they should see themselves when they are trying to sell their car as a trade-in and "forget" to mention the wrecked frame, lead sled putty jobs, etc.

And some dealers actually aren't that bad, and will go out of their way to make a sale to get a desperate customer into a vehicle, even if it means cutting way back on profits. Well, cutting back on the sales staff commission. Usually when a dealer has to rig a deal for a customer with bad credit, the dealer makes up for it on the financing end, so the in house finance office rarely loses any money.

Back in the 1980s we didn't really have any significant shortages of vehicles, just occasional shortages of specific model custom packages and colors that some customers wanted. But there was almost always something on the lot to sell to customers who weren't too picky.

It was a weird business then and probably weirder now. Customers have access to more info, so in some respects they have opportunities to be better informed... and also more dis-informed by myths and scuttlebutt.

SkinGriz

At our dock we had a geared bulk carrier unloading cans. That’s how you know the rate to move a 40 from Asia to here is sky high.

SkinGriz

It’s not stuck on the dock. It’s stuck on the ship waiting for space at the dock. Family friends have been asking me for like 8 months now “What’s going on? Every time I go to the beach I see all these ships sitting in the ocean.”

There’s only so many cranes, workers, rail lines, lanes on the 710, truckers, hours in the day...

Germany_chris

The bike shortage and issues aren't nearly as be here in Germany as they seem to be in the states. I can go into any bike store just get a bike E or otherwise, I've not had any issues get parts or consumables either so I'm not sure if this is a world problem or an America problem.

seypat

Good info here and here:

https://www.bikeforums.net/road-cycl...y-pricing.html

https://www.bikeforums.net/road-cycl...ide-drama.html

Charliekeet

If it were just a question of bike vs. drive, it might. It depends on what one is looking for/in need of, but industry-wide it may indeed serve to keep demand for bikes higher than "usual" as in, during non-pandemic-times.

My family has plenty of bikes, but buying other bikes is not going to help alleviate my need for a larger family vehicle! I'm not looking forward to buying one this year, though some voices say that supply conditions will get worse from here before it gets better.

tiger1964 

I suspect it would most affect e-bike prices and availability, as car owners would want the "boost" of an e-bike if they were to ride.

Our next 4-wheeled purchase is planned for 2023, I hope the market stabilizes by then.

SirMike1983 

I had a difficult time getting a set of tires for my Schwinn bike project, and had to pay substantially more than I would have 2 years ago for the tires. That was frustrating, but it's better to have the tires on time for the project than to wait until some unknown time hoping the tires will come in and prices will go back down.

(I'm still driving my 2007 Jeep Wrangler and don't see that changing any time soon.)

squirtdad

I have long been of the opinion that it would take a massive gas price increase to show any measurable increase in ridership, and that alone probably would not do it. Simply IMHO it needs to be more convenient to ride you bike for short trips, errands which means expensive gas, parking hard to find, secure bike parking, bike that can carry a few things, better bike lanes and other supporting infrastructure and enforcement, and mindset change that bikes are sport they are appliances

this is sad because so many trips could be done so easily by bike

I think ebikes may well help drive this

Meanwhile I am set with my SR semi pro set up for beer runs and other fun errands

nlerner

I predict that the shortage of cars will affect the price of cars.

gugie 

To stay on topic, the shortage of bikes will affect the price of bikes.

nlerner

Perhaps short bikes will face a shortage or be sold short by short sellers, thereby driving up the price of coffee.

gugie 

I have learned that riding with you means stopping often for coffee, which drives up the price of...

Roger M

You're telling me I need to start hoarding toilet paper again?

52telecaster

In my experience, buying too many old bikes under 100$ a piece, there are still many out there. My car is a 2018 Honda fit and I hope I don't need another until electric cars are budget appliances. I'll probably die first.

mstateglfr 

No