Notices
Coronavirus/COVID-19 Discussion of the novel coronavirus

Reinfection

 
Old 04-26-20, 01:20 AM
  #26  
CliffordK
Senior Member
 
CliffordK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Eugene, Oregon, USA
Posts: 25,799
Mentioned: 205 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 13984 Post(s)
Liked 2,170 Times in 1,622 Posts
Perhaps the target of a vaccine shouldn't be to prevent infection, but rather to prevent death.

We really have no idea what the mortality rate of COVID-19 is. We do know that certain groups of high-risk individuals that are SYMPTOMATIC tend not to fare well, but even those may be over-estimated with some being minimally symptomatic.

However, what if those that have either had a previous infection, or got the vaccine have a 100-fold lower chance of death? And far more of them are either asymptomatic, or experience either mild cold/flu symptoms.

Would it still be worth it to design a moderately effective vaccine?
CliffordK is offline  
Old 04-26-20, 04:35 AM
  #27  
livedarklions
Certified Class A Wanker
 
livedarklions's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: New England
Posts: 9,298

Bikes: Serotta Atlanta; 1994 Specialized Allez Pro; Giant OCR A1; SOMA Double Cross Disc

Mentioned: 49 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4812 Post(s)
Liked 4,011 Times in 2,252 Posts
At this point we don't know if the immunity lasts hours, days, months or years. First, you figure that out, then comes the strategy.

Short-term immunity isn't really a good thing to shoot for for a common cold, but it's a different calculation with CV 19.

An effective vaccine of any kind would be a breakthrough invention. We really can't count on that occurring. If we learn how to detect before symptoms and develop antiviral treatment and control the auto-immune response, fatalities and morbidity should reduce to something like what we expect from annual flu outbreaks.

BTW, I have no idea whether or not there's immunity of any kind or how long it lasts. I'm just pointing out that people posting here are making completely incorrect statements about what is or isn't a possible or likely answer. WHO has it exactly right, we don't know and it's too soon to start issuing get out of isolation cards because there's no proof that previously infected people are immune AND can't spread it.
​​​​
livedarklions is offline  
Old 04-26-20, 05:52 AM
  #28  
CliffordK
Senior Member
 
CliffordK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Eugene, Oregon, USA
Posts: 25,799
Mentioned: 205 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 13984 Post(s)
Liked 2,170 Times in 1,622 Posts
Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
At this point we don't know if the immunity lasts hours, days, months or years. First, you figure that out, then comes the strategy.
Yes, a lot of unknowns.

With dogs, there is a canine enteric coronavirus which we do vaccinate against, as well as a canine respiratory coronavirus which we don't vaccinate against, presumably due to more mild symptoms.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canine...ic_coronavirus

For humans, I presume the antibody tests can be quantitative. So, one could look at the antibody titers from Chinese patients from January and compare to activity from other diseases.

And, look at reinfection among medical professionals.

Much of the data is there if one looks.
CliffordK is offline  
Old 04-26-20, 06:23 AM
  #29  
Tony P.
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 256
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 290 Post(s)
Liked 184 Times in 103 Posts
Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
Yes, a lot of unknowns.

With dogs, there is a canine enteric coronavirus which we do vaccinate against, as well as a canine respiratory coronavirus which we don't vaccinate against, presumably due to more mild symptoms.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canine...ic_coronavirus

For humans, I presume the antibody tests can be quantitative. So, one could look at the antibody titers from Chinese patients from January and compare to activity from other diseases.

And, look at reinfection among medical professionals.

Much of the data is there if one looks.
China has proven to be unreliable at their best and, more likely, suspect in their intentions. At this stage I believe nothing out of China is of value, nor is it necessary. With nearly 3 million cases worldwide and 1 million in the US, data should be readily available, but I don't think raw data from previously infected patients will be relevant.

Rather, it appears progress is being made on proteins associated with coronavirus spikes - the portion of the virus that attaches to the lung. A vaccine from antibodies which attack these proteins is showing promise.
Tony P. is offline  
Old 04-30-20, 01:58 PM
  #30  
CycleryNorth81
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 877

Bikes: custom Cyclery North (Chicago), Schwinn Circuit

Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 350 Post(s)
Liked 202 Times in 117 Posts

South Korea says recovered coronavirus patients who tested positive again did not relapse: Tests picked up 'dead virus fragments'

https://www.yahoo.com/news/south-kor...133600512.html
CycleryNorth81 is offline  
Likes For CycleryNorth81:
Old 04-30-20, 02:33 PM
  #31  
livedarklions
Certified Class A Wanker
 
livedarklions's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: New England
Posts: 9,298

Bikes: Serotta Atlanta; 1994 Specialized Allez Pro; Giant OCR A1; SOMA Double Cross Disc

Mentioned: 49 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4812 Post(s)
Liked 4,011 Times in 2,252 Posts
Originally Posted by CycleryNorth81 View Post

South Korea says recovered coronavirus patients who tested positive again did not relapse: Tests picked up 'dead virus fragments'

https://www.yahoo.com/news/south-kor...133600512.html

That's good news, hope it holds up.
livedarklions is offline  
Likes For livedarklions:
Old 04-30-20, 03:02 PM
  #32  
tds101 
Wake up!!!
 
tds101's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Mastic Beach, NY
Posts: 3,338

Bikes: 9+,...

Mentioned: 11 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 741 Post(s)
Liked 243 Times in 150 Posts
Originally Posted by CycleryNorth81 View Post

South Korea says recovered coronavirus patients who tested positive again did not relapse: Tests picked up 'dead virus fragments'

https://www.yahoo.com/news/south-kor...133600512.html
Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
That's good news, hope it holds up.
I hope so too,...
__________________
If it wasn't for you meddling kids,...
tds101 is offline  
Likes For tds101:
Old 04-30-20, 03:36 PM
  #33  
tyrion
Senior Member
 
tyrion's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: San Diego, California
Posts: 3,436

Bikes: Breezer Radar

Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1854 Post(s)
Liked 1,210 Times in 575 Posts
Has there ever been a virus that normal people can recover from and not end up with immunity?
tyrion is offline  
Old 04-30-20, 03:49 PM
  #34  
tds101 
Wake up!!!
 
tds101's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Mastic Beach, NY
Posts: 3,338

Bikes: 9+,...

Mentioned: 11 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 741 Post(s)
Liked 243 Times in 150 Posts
Originally Posted by tyrion View Post
Has there ever been a virus that normal people can recover from and not end up with immunity?
I believe the problem is that there's so many different strains. The flu mutates every year, but this appears to mutate much faster. Until there's proof that we can't be reinfected a week later with a different strain we'll be constantly worrying that we can become ill all over again. I'm recovered, I'm getting the antibody testing done on Friday, but can I get sick again? Who knows at this point.
__________________
If it wasn't for you meddling kids,...
tds101 is offline  
Likes For tds101:
Old 04-30-20, 03:53 PM
  #35  
wgscott
Occam's Rotor
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 7,133
Mentioned: 61 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2366 Post(s)
Liked 2,232 Times in 1,111 Posts
Originally Posted by tyrion View Post
Has there ever been a virus that normal people can recover from and not end up with immunity?
Colds.

Herpes.

Flu.

Possibly Hep C.
wgscott is offline  
Likes For wgscott:
Old 04-30-20, 04:03 PM
  #36  
tds101 
Wake up!!!
 
tds101's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Mastic Beach, NY
Posts: 3,338

Bikes: 9+,...

Mentioned: 11 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 741 Post(s)
Liked 243 Times in 150 Posts
Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Colds.

Herpes.

Flu.

Possibly Hep C.
Well,...colds and flu come back yearly,...yes?
__________________
If it wasn't for you meddling kids,...
tds101 is offline  
Old 04-30-20, 04:23 PM
  #37  
noisebeam
Arizona Dessert
 
noisebeam's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: AZ
Posts: 14,966

Bikes: Cannondale SuperSix, Lemond Poprad. Retired: Jamis Sputnik, Centurion LeMans Fixed, Diamond Back ascent ex

Mentioned: 73 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4975 Post(s)
Liked 1,642 Times in 979 Posts
Originally Posted by tyrion View Post
Has there ever been a virus that normal people can recover from and not end up with immunity?
yes. for a close example the 'standard' coronas, or at least reducing over time. rhinos too.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2271881/
noisebeam is offline  
Likes For noisebeam:
Old 04-30-20, 05:04 PM
  #38  
Seattle Forrest
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
Seattle Forrest's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 21,990
Mentioned: 74 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 14662 Post(s)
Liked 5,607 Times in 3,211 Posts
Originally Posted by tds101 View Post
I believe the problem is that there's so many different strains. The flu mutates every year, but this appears to mutate much faster. Until there's proof that we can't be reinfected a week later with a different strain we'll be constantly worrying that we can become ill all over again. I'm recovered, I'm getting the antibody testing done on Friday, but can I get sick again? Who knows at this point.
Caronavirus mutates less quickly than other viruses not more quickly.

At this point the reason for doubt is because there have been reports of people being infected a second time. Everything else is guesswork at this point.
Seattle Forrest is offline  
Old 04-30-20, 05:51 PM
  #39  
tds101 
Wake up!!!
 
tds101's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Mastic Beach, NY
Posts: 3,338

Bikes: 9+,...

Mentioned: 11 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 741 Post(s)
Liked 243 Times in 150 Posts
Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
Caronavirus mutates less quickly than other viruses not more quickly.

At this point the reason for doubt is because there have been reports of people being infected a second time. Everything else is guesswork at this point.
Got it,... All the different reports from different scientists and locations adds to the confusion.
__________________
If it wasn't for you meddling kids,...
tds101 is offline  
Old 04-30-20, 06:20 PM
  #40  
noisebeam
Arizona Dessert
 
noisebeam's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: AZ
Posts: 14,966

Bikes: Cannondale SuperSix, Lemond Poprad. Retired: Jamis Sputnik, Centurion LeMans Fixed, Diamond Back ascent ex

Mentioned: 73 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4975 Post(s)
Liked 1,642 Times in 979 Posts
It seems there are still some lingering reports of either not fully clearing virus or reinfection or possibly testing methodology.accuracy. Seems to be leaning more toward not fully clearing remnants (whether still infectious or not is TBD).
noisebeam is offline  
Old 04-30-20, 06:49 PM
  #41  
3alarmer
Friendship is Magic
 
3alarmer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: The Big Tomato
Posts: 19,731

Bikes: old ones

Mentioned: 280 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 21311 Post(s)
Liked 4,214 Times in 3,082 Posts

There May Be a Dangerous Shortcut to a Coronavirus Vaccine

Scientists at Oxford University’s Jenner Institute raised hopes this week when they announced plans to expand testing for a potential coronavirus vaccine that if proven effective could be ready for emergency use as soon as September. But as my colleague Stuart Thompson explains, that’s an enormous if: Most vaccines take a decade or longer to make, and none has ever been developed in less than four years.
Cutting that record down to 12 or even 18 months would already require moving at “pandemic speed.” But last week, 35 members of Congress proposed an extraordinary practice that some scientists think could compress the timeline even further: deliberately infecting volunteers. Here’s what people are saying about the idea, known as human challenge.
...might end up in P+R as a debate on medical ethics, but I link it here because I found it interesting.
3alarmer is offline  
Old 04-30-20, 07:08 PM
  #42  
gregf83 
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Vancouver, BC
Posts: 9,168
Mentioned: 11 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1158 Post(s)
Liked 267 Times in 162 Posts
Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post

There May Be a Dangerous Shortcut to a Coronavirus Vaccine



...might end up in P+R as a debate on medical ethics, but I link it here because I found it interesting.
If I was young I would consider volunteering. Years ago Dr Barry Marshall deliberately gave himself an ulcer to test his hypothesis:
Unable to make his case in studies with lab mice (because H. pylori affects only primates) and prohibited from experimenting on people, Marshall grew desperate. Finally he ran an experiment on the only human patient he could ethically recruit: himself. He took some H. pylori from the gut of an ailing patient, stirred it into a broth, and drank it.

As the days passed, he developed gastritis, the precursor to an ulcer: He started vomiting, his breath began to stink, and he felt sick and exhausted. Back in the lab, he biopsied his own gut, culturing H. pylori and proving unequivocally that bacteria were the underlying cause of ulcers.
https://www.discovermagazine.com/hea...edical-mystery
gregf83 is offline  
Likes For gregf83:
Old 04-30-20, 08:53 PM
  #43  
Seattle Forrest
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
Seattle Forrest's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 21,990
Mentioned: 74 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 14662 Post(s)
Liked 5,607 Times in 3,211 Posts
Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post

There May Be a Dangerous Shortcut to a Coronavirus Vaccine



...might end up in P+R as a debate on medical ethics, but I link it here because I found it interesting.
I can't believe anyone would think this is unethical during a pandemic. Most volunteers will get it anyway, now that get better medical care than most people, and something good comes of it.
Seattle Forrest is offline  
Old 05-01-20, 07:05 AM
  #44  
livedarklions
Certified Class A Wanker
 
livedarklions's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: New England
Posts: 9,298

Bikes: Serotta Atlanta; 1994 Specialized Allez Pro; Giant OCR A1; SOMA Double Cross Disc

Mentioned: 49 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4812 Post(s)
Liked 4,011 Times in 2,252 Posts
Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
I can't believe anyone would think this is unethical during a pandemic. Most volunteers will get it anyway, now that get better medical care than most people, and something good comes of it.

The key word there is volunteer. If it's truly voluntary, then I think it's ethical to allow them to be used as they wish. I think the thornier issues come up when it's convicts and the like that are "volunteering", or the "volunteers" are questionably competent to knowingly consent.
livedarklions is offline  
Old 05-01-20, 07:11 AM
  #45  
skookum
cyclotourist
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: calgary, canada
Posts: 1,398
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 414 Post(s)
Liked 188 Times in 117 Posts
Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
The key word there is volunteer. If it's truly voluntary, then I think it's ethical to allow them to be used as they wish. I think the thornier issues come up when it's convicts and the like that are "volunteering", or the "volunteers" are questionably competent to knowingly consent.
I saw somewhere they were med students who wanted to volunteer.
skookum is offline  
Old 05-01-20, 03:26 PM
  #46  
3alarmer
Friendship is Magic
 
3alarmer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: The Big Tomato
Posts: 19,731

Bikes: old ones

Mentioned: 280 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 21311 Post(s)
Liked 4,214 Times in 3,082 Posts
...
...I took some time to ponder how I feel about human challenge vaccine testing this early in the development stage. I think my main problem with it is not that the volunteers will be endangered in some extraordinary way, although it's a statistical possibility. My main problem with it is that I can't see a whole bunch of people in the advanced age, high risk group signing up for the challenge testing. Nor will the experimenters be willing to take that risk.

And the way vaccines work, it's not beyond reason they will have different success in promoting longer term immunity in different age group populations.

So I can foresee a time in the not too distant future where they get good results in human challenge testing, the vaccine tested does not work nearly as well in older adults (without something like a second dose or regular boosters), but we declare victory and shoot everyone up, only to discover in retrospect that the high risk original group is still at high risk.

But I suppose that the ability to vastly increase herd immunity would have some significant benefits just by itself.
3alarmer is offline  
Old 05-02-20, 10:04 PM
  #47  
SHBR
C*pt*i* Obvious
 
SHBR's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 1,337
Mentioned: 5 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 596 Post(s)
Liked 50 Times in 41 Posts
On this side of the planet, its not much of a concern.

Or so it would appear, there are an infinite amount of variables at play though.

One annoying question that remains, how many strains of this virus are there?


SHBR is offline  
Old 05-02-20, 11:57 PM
  #48  
venturi95
Woof!
 
venturi95's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: NorCal
Posts: 445

Bikes: Breezer Venturi, Lemond Ti, Santa Cruz Blur, Soma Saga, Miyata Colorado

Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 58 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 13 Times in 11 Posts
If a vaccine can be found

I hope it wonít take even one year. About 4 years ago I read that an Ebola vaccine was developed in 6 months, an unheard of short time for development.
venturi95 is offline  
Old 05-03-20, 05:32 AM
  #49  
gregf83 
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Vancouver, BC
Posts: 9,168
Mentioned: 11 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1158 Post(s)
Liked 267 Times in 162 Posts
Originally Posted by venturi95 View Post
I hope it wonít take even one year. About 4 years ago I read that an Ebola vaccine was developed in 6 months, an unheard of short time for development.
Hereís an interesting story on the development of a vaccine for Ebola https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/07/...ebola-vaccine/ sounds like it took about 20yrs not 6 months. One problem was Ebola tends to occur sporadically in 3rd world countries so itís difficult to finance the work required to make and test a vaccine.

Covid-19 is obviously more prevalent but financial considerations will still likely play a role in how quickly a vaccine is made available. If it costs in the neighborhood of $1B to bring a vaccine to market, large pharmaceuticals arenít going to participate unless their costs are going to be covered. We could end up with multiple candidates with varying degrees of efficacy. Determining which, if any, make it to market is unlikely to happen quickly.
gregf83 is offline  
Old 05-03-20, 09:21 AM
  #50  
wgscott
Occam's Rotor
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 7,133
Mentioned: 61 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2366 Post(s)
Liked 2,232 Times in 1,111 Posts
Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
or the "volunteers" are questionably competent
That rules out large segments of the US population (and its governance).
wgscott is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright © 2021 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.