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Do you think bike and parts prices will drop?

Old 05-15-22, 08:30 AM
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freeranger
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Do you think bike and parts prices will drop?

I figure those of us in this forum have seen more fluctuations in the economy than the "younger crowd", so here goes. Once the supply and transportation problems clear up, do you think prices will go back down? The past has shown me, with few exceptions, that once prices go up, and people keep buying, that the prices don't go back down or if they do, not near what they had been previously. So, whaddaya think?
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Old 05-15-22, 09:09 AM
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New stuff will stay and go higher, but if the Craigslist thread is anything to go by there are some incredibly low prices out there on used bikes and gear. (Incredibly low compared to the past few years).
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Old 05-15-22, 09:15 AM
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Price levels do not decline on average when central banks inflate the monetary base. Prices are not coming down to any large degree. I used to buy a candy bar and coke for 25 cents as a kid. A coke and water was $6.84 in a minimart yesterday. 25 cents is long gone as is a top of the line $6k bike, they will stay $12-15k. My first new car was a $4,100 Toyota Celica before the last stagflation. Prices never came back down. A top of the line Campy bike was $1200 then, too.
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Old 05-15-22, 09:26 AM
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Unless the market gets flooded with excess inventory, or there is a major recession/depression, don't count on it.

However, if you are feeling nostalgic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system
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Old 05-15-22, 05:00 PM
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No
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Old 05-15-22, 07:59 PM
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I don't have a lot of faith in management. Almost anybody can make money when the odds are stacked in their favor, but segments of the economy go through booms and busts. My bet is that we'll see some overproduction of new stuff, and it won't take a lot for someone in the chain to overextend themself and blow everyone else's business plans.
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Old 05-16-22, 09:03 AM
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If Xi decides to attack/invade Taiwan. there is no telling how much bikes/parts supply will be diminished and scarcity with demand will further inflate prices.
Maybe now is a good time to stock up on consumables even with current high prices?
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Old 05-17-22, 06:51 AM
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I donít expect prices to go back down but do expect that we will at some point get back to seeing end of year sales when new models are introduced and more competition for components and hopefully tires.

I think it is going to be a while though. The disruption in the supply chain is still a big problem
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Old 05-17-22, 05:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Bald Paul View Post
No
I like the short answer.
I was at my local car dealer today discussing the possibility of purchasing something new by the end of the year.
The General Manager said that Honda (Automobiles) nation wide only has 3 days worth of inventory.
You used to buy off of "Sticker" price and dealers would discount the cars - now you are talking list price and up!
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Old 05-17-22, 06:26 PM
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They used to say when the baby boomers started dying off that there would be a glut of used RVs for cheap. I thought that would be great.
Now here we are, and I don't care anymore.
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Old 05-17-22, 06:32 PM
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Not really, not even adjusted for inflation.

I think out of this companies will be better than ever at managing inventory, which will mean fewer markdowns.

Right now we're at a point where companies are looking to grab market share by being the first to recover. Demand is through the roof; it's a rare day when this much market share is up for grabs. Price isn't even a consideration.
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Old 05-27-22, 08:23 AM
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We're in for a few years of old fashioned inflation. I don't see prices dropping.
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Old 05-27-22, 08:36 AM
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Do you think bike and parts prices will drop?
My guess: No, it won't, given too many disruptions and cost increases across the board, resulting in far too many embedded and largely irreversible changes that'll keep prices higher (in many cases much higher) than they were just a handful of years ago.

IF the cost structure of manufacturers, suppliers and logistics decrease, though ... sure. Economics 101, basically.

But that's a big "if." Fuel prices affect nearly every aspect of production and distribution. Until fuel pricing gets back to some reasonable level, everything made or transported with such fuels will cost more. Until the price of raw materials and salaries come down, then the cost of materials- and staff-intensive products will continue to remain high.

Aluminum. Steel. Rubber. Fuels. Synthetics. Labor. Transportation. "Fiat" currency inflation. Disruptions/delays due to Covid and the "ripple effect" of everything else that's going on. It's going to take a complete "sea change" in the economy for significant price reductions. Even if it does eventually occur, it'll take a long time.
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Old 05-27-22, 09:38 AM
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Originally Posted by BTinNYC View Post
We're in for a few years of old fashioned inflation. I don't see prices dropping.
Looks like we are headed toward a recession as well. Maybe we will have "stagflation" like late 1970s/early 1980s (which combined the worst aspects of both).
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Old 05-28-22, 11:03 AM
  #15  
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After a 20 year hiatus - I recently got back into biking

I have a number of bike projects currently in process and have been acquiring both vintage and current components / accessories (used and new)

It's been a challenge just to find some parts - and not a surprise the prices are relatively high

Some components / parts have been almost impossible to find - LBS unable to get via distributor (Quality, etc) and rarely available on eBay, Amazon etc

Low supply / high prices could be around for a while
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Old 05-28-22, 11:31 AM
  #16  
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It could be that the cost of bike parts is not going up but rather the value of your currency is going down...
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Old 05-28-22, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by zandoval View Post
It could be that the cost of bike parts is not going up but rather the value of your currency is going down...
That is also the case !
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Old 05-29-22, 11:23 AM
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I usually keep well stocked with consumables but my inventory is almost depleted. I was hanging onto the idea that there would be post Covid sales and the economy might return to something resembling its previous state. I have given up on that and figure to just strike while the iron's lukewarm and replenish my inventory now. Tubes, Tires, Cassettes, Lubricants, Cables and Housing, Chains etc.
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Old 06-02-22, 11:17 AM
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The majority of the bike parts are being manufacturerd in China or Taiwan and both countries currencies have risen against the U.S. dollar (no surprise). The value of the U.S. dollar has dropped more than 10% in the last 6 months and that cost is going to be passed along to the consumers. Tariffs are also in effect taxes and they play a role. At this time the monopolies that control ocean freight and the railroads have jacked up their prices tremendously. A shipment from Taiwan that cost us $1,0000 in 2020 now costs us more than $4,000. Trucking companies are having to increase their rates with the oil companies and hedge fund operators driving up the price for fuel across the country with complete impunity.
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Old 06-02-22, 12:40 PM
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Maybe.

A friend works in a bike shop that is one of the flagship Trek dealers in the area. He tells me that the inventory of new bikes is back to close to normal. Right now there is pent-up demand because supply was so low, but if the demand isn't sustained (partly b/c lots of people bought bikes during the pandemic bike boom) and inventory starts piling up, there could be some negative price pressure.

The prices can only stay high if demand is sustained.
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Old 06-02-22, 01:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Calsun View Post
The majority of the bike parts are being manufacturerd in China or Taiwan and both countries currencies have risen against the U.S. dollar (no surprise). The value of the U.S. dollar has ...
Imagine how bad pricing will suffer, if the threats against Taiwan (by China) begin to look real and imminent. It'll make today's prices look like a downright bargain.
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Old 06-02-22, 09:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
Imagine how bad pricing will suffer, if the threats against Taiwan (by China) begin to look real and imminent. It'll make today's prices look like a downright bargain.
agree

and production of a number of items fairly recently moved from China to Taiwan
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Old 06-06-22, 07:36 PM
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You're kidding right? No man, prices are going up, and have already done so, and will continue to do so due to the crap that Biden has brought us. Higher gas and diesel prices will affect prices on everything we buy, those fuel costs will be passed on to us. Then there is general inflation, due to out-of-control spending resulting in the need to print more dollars which made our currency worth less; then there is the war in Ukraine, would that war had happened if someone other than Biden was in charge? who's to say! regardless, it caused major ripple effects in the economy. Once inflation is set into motion it cannot be reversed, this is the new world order that Biden promised us, a world where the middle class will become the lower class, there will only be lower class and upper class. If you have stuff you need you had better buy it now, or you might not be able to in the near future.
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Old 06-08-22, 08:52 PM
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Originally Posted by freeranger View Post
I figure those of us in this forum have seen more fluctuations in the economy than the "younger crowd", so here goes. Once the supply and transportation problems clear up, do you think prices will go back down? The past has shown me, with few exceptions, that once prices go up, and people keep buying, that the prices don't go back down or if they do, not near what they had been previously. So, whaddaya think?
The cost of bicycle parts, and just about anything else in the future, will depend on where you live and what currency you have to spend. I will guess that most members of this forum are in the USA and use USA dollars to buy goods and services.

Some may have noticed the USA's recent inflation, I think it is as high as it has been for many decades. According to a few non-corporate financial pundits, that is, those who are not working for Wall-Street and being paid to feed the public propaganda, the inflation of the last three or four months of 2022 is just the beginning of a period of the USA dollar losing value that is going to last for many years. Gasoline in some parts of California is $9 a gallon, and those who predicted that price now say over the next year that could double. If the price of essential items like fuel is going off the charts, everything else is going to follow in short order.

So the answer to the question is a big no, bicycle parts, nor anything else for those using USA dollars is going to drop in price for a long, long time into the future. Those using most other Western currencies are not going to have any better luck. If you happen to have rubles or yuan making up most of your wealth, you are going to experience much less trouble over the next few years with the price of bicycle parts, food or fuel.
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Old 06-09-22, 07:17 AM
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Originally Posted by beng1 View Post
The cost of bicycle parts, and just about anything else in the future, will depend on where you live and what currency you have to spend. I will guess that most members of this forum are in the USA and use USA dollars to buy goods and services.

Some may have noticed the USA's recent inflation, I think it is as high as it has been for many decades. According to a few non-corporate financial pundits, that is, those who are not working for Wall-Street and being paid to feed the public propaganda, the inflation of the last three or four months of 2022 is just the beginning of a period of the USA dollar losing value that is going to last for many years. Gasoline in some parts of California is $9 a gallon, and those who predicted that price now say over the next year that could double. If the price of essential items like fuel is going off the charts, everything else is going to follow in short order.

So the answer to the question is a big no, bicycle parts, nor anything else for those using USA dollars is going to drop in price for a long, long time into the future. Those using most other Western currencies are not going to have any better luck. If you happen to have rubles or yuan making up most of your wealth, you are going to experience much less trouble over the next few years with the price of bicycle parts, food or fuel.
During this period, the dollar has strengthened against other currencies, not weakened. But don't let facts get in the way of your ideology.





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