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Road Cycling “It is by riding a bicycle that you learn the contours of a country best, since you have to sweat up the hills and coast down them. Thus you remember them as they actually are, while in a motor car only a high hill impresses you, and you have no such accurate remembrance of country you have driven through as you gain by riding a bicycle.” -- Ernest Hemingway

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Old 11-20-20, 01:51 PM
  #5751  
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Originally Posted by Mojo31
Scott AFB one of those bases? I grew up in IL, not far from Scott. Parents and others still there.

Good thing your dad wasn't a doctor when he was flying that Bonanza. I heard that's not a good mix.
I was born at Langley, then we went to Holloman -> Sheppard -> Winnipeg (flying a desk for NORAD), then back to Sheppard.

Dad flew F-15s, then F-106s for the drone program out at Holloman, and then finished up as a flight instructor in T-38s and T-37s. I think by this point he's seen pretty much every mistake you can make in an airplane so he's got a good head on his shoulders. I mean, he taught me how to fly and I've made it out unscathed (and the airplanes too, mostly ).
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Old 11-20-20, 01:59 PM
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Originally Posted by MoAlpha
Always a consideration.

The picture should be no surprise in a country already suffering from an epidemic of "deaths of despair," addiction, chronic pain, obesity, etc. and dead set on ignoring other obvious and terrifying realities. People aren't stupid, I think they are simply overloaded, and no amount of prescribing, proscribing, shaming, or yelling is going to change their behavior. I just hope they're willing to be vaccinated.
Assumes facts not in evidence.

Honestly, though, a lot of us have radically reduced our social interactions, stopped going out to eat, don't go to movie theaters, don't go to the mall, etc. It's a chore, but we do it. I've got very limited patience for the idea that people are 'overloaded'. Sure it's not easy, but they'll live. Or at least, they will if they don't wimp out.
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Old 11-20-20, 02:08 PM
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Originally Posted by abshipp
I was born at Langley, then we went to Holloman -> Sheppard -> Winnipeg (flying a desk for NORAD), then back to Sheppard.

Dad flew F-15s, then F-106s for the drone program out at Holloman, and then finished up as a flight instructor in T-38s and T-37s. I think by this point he's seen pretty much every mistake you can make in an airplane so he's got a good head on his shoulders. I mean, he taught me how to fly and I've made it out unscathed (and the airplanes too, mostly ).
A good landing is one you walk away from. A great one is when you can reuse the airplane.
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Old 11-20-20, 02:17 PM
  #5754  
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Originally Posted by Bah Humbug
A whoooooole lot aren't.
The GOOD news is that universal vaccination isn't necessary to radically reduce the prevalance of the virus. We thought about this a lot when I was in HIV Vaccine research, thinking about the effect of a vaccine with maybe only 50% efficacy. Every missed opportunity for transmission makes a difference, so even if it's only 60% of people who get vaccinated, it may be enough to reduce Reff well below 1. Fewer opportunities for transmission = fewer new infections per infected person, and prevalence falls, meaning there are even fewer opportunities.

Because COVID is less easily transmitted than, say, measles, even relatively low compliance would make a HUGE difference. But assuming the FDA is still independent after January, I'll be in line to get my shot(s).
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Old 11-20-20, 02:20 PM
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Originally Posted by abshipp
Pierogis sound like a wonderful alternative to the standard American fare. I'm at least thankful that my family prefers turkey over ham.
Yeah, that's why it's become a recently established family tradition - they know that everybody has other places to be and traditional meals to eat, so they go with a change of pace that we all enjoy. It doesn't make the issue of being over-stuffed any easier, though.
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Old 11-20-20, 02:25 PM
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Originally Posted by genejockey
The GOOD news is that universal vaccination isn't necessary to radically reduce the prevalance of the virus. We thought about this a lot when I was in HIV Vaccine research, thinking about the effect of a vaccine with maybe only 50% efficacy. Every missed opportunity for transmission makes a difference, so even if it's only 60% of people who get vaccinated, it may be enough to reduce Reff well below 1. Fewer opportunities for transmission = fewer new infections per infected person, and prevalence falls, meaning there are even fewer opportunities.

Because COVID is less easily transmitted than, say, measles, even relatively low compliance would make a HUGE difference. But assuming the FDA is still independent after January, I'll be in line to get my shot(s).
So the vaccinated carry the load for everybody and the unvaccinated get to watch the numbers go down and then bloviate about how it was all a hoax because the crisis largely went away (knock on wood) without them doing anything about it?
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Old 11-20-20, 02:35 PM
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Originally Posted by phrantic09
I can’t do pasteurized cider, something just seems off to me
Those trees out back spoil us for cider. We drink it straight from the press.
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Old 11-20-20, 02:37 PM
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Originally Posted by WhyFi
So the vaccinated carry the load for everybody and the unvaccinated get to watch the numbers go down and then bloviate about how it was all a hoax because the crisis largely went away (knock on wood) without them doing anything about it?
At this point, I'm willing to let them bloviate while I point at them and laugh, loudly and unmasked.
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Old 11-20-20, 02:40 PM
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Originally Posted by phrantic09
We have a great hard cider brewer near here, they make some really good dry ciders.
I just finished some local hard cider.
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Old 11-20-20, 02:40 PM
  #5760  
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Originally Posted by phrantic09
I can’t do pasteurized cider, something just seems off to me
We used to get fresh cider every fall. You had to drink it fairly soon after purchase, even refrigerated. But it really, really is better than pasteurized, or filtered apple juice. And I say that as someone whom the apple industry supported from the age of 3 till I left home at 21.
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Old 11-20-20, 02:41 PM
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Originally Posted by abshipp
Winnipeg
Canada? Or is this a copycat city like Vancouver, WA?
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Old 11-20-20, 02:43 PM
  #5762  
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Originally Posted by rjones28
Those trees out back spoil us for cider. We drink it straight from the press.
wut press?
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Old 11-20-20, 02:51 PM
  #5763  
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Originally Posted by Velo Vol
Canada? Or is this a copycat city like Vancouver, WA?
The real deal. Awful winters and all.
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Old 11-20-20, 02:55 PM
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Originally Posted by abshipp
The real deal. Awful winters and all.
We have another Canadian here?
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Old 11-20-20, 03:00 PM
  #5765  
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Originally Posted by genejockey
At this point, I'm willing to let them bloviate while I point at them and laugh, loudly and unmasked.
Loosely related, I sincerely hope that "booger side out/in" becomes a part of the lexicon.
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Old 11-20-20, 03:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Velo Vol
We have another Canadian here?
I wish I was
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Old 11-20-20, 03:24 PM
  #5767  
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Originally Posted by genejockey
Assumes facts not in evidence.

Honestly, though, a lot of us have radically reduced our social interactions, stopped going out to eat, don't go to movie theaters, don't go to the mall, etc. It's a chore, but we do it. I've got very limited patience for the idea that people are 'overloaded'. Sure it's not easy, but they'll live. Or at least, they will if they don't wimp out.
I feel that way too, but there is overwhelming evidence that it's not going to change anyone's behavior.
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Old 11-20-20, 03:25 PM
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Originally Posted by WhyFi
So the vaccinated carry the load for everybody and the unvaccinated get to watch the numbers go down and then bloviate about how it was all a hoax because the crisis largely went away (knock on wood) without them doing anything about it?
Welcome to adulthood.
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Old 11-20-20, 03:31 PM
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So what happens when a country like China adopts a policy of mandatory (forced) vaccinations until, theoretically, they eventually eliminate the virus in their country? . . . . while at the same time a "free will" country like, let's say America, allows individuals to decide whether to take vaccinations? Will the free-will country eventually become sicker and weaker, unable to function effectively due to the ravages of the virus?

Makes you wonder, eh?
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Old 11-20-20, 03:37 PM
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Originally Posted by MoAlpha
Welcome to America.
Fixt.
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Old 11-20-20, 03:42 PM
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Originally Posted by BillyD
So what happens when a country like China adopts a policy of mandatory (forced) vaccinations until, theoretically, they eventually eliminate the virus in their country? . . . . while at the same time a "free will" country like, let's say America, allows individuals to decide whether to take vaccinations? Will the free-will country eventually become sicker and weaker, unable to function effectively due to the ravages of the virus?

Makes you wonder, eh?
Depending on the long-term, it may not be enough to show up at that scale - if the vaccine takes half the population out of the running to get sick, and most people both have no symptoms and eventually get over the longer symptoms when they do have them, we're not looking at a huge knock-down of the economy. Certainly, you'd have to turn around and also account for pollution and nutrition issues in a country like China as well.

There are other things I'd worry about first, like the (horrible) efficiency of authoritarianism vs the (also horrible) lurching randomness of a democracy switching direction every few years, and how it allows the authoritarian country to eventually lock down the world economically.
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Old 11-20-20, 03:45 PM
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wut

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Old 11-20-20, 03:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Velo Vol
wut
Maybe I should rethink my plan to go support my local Lego store with their promo weekend tomorrow.
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Old 11-20-20, 03:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Bah Humbug
Fixt.
Maybe, but the UK and Germany are also succumbing to bad-faith flat-earthism and then there are the majority of countries which missed out on the Enlightenment entirely.
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Old 11-20-20, 04:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Bah Humbug
Depending on the long-term, it may not be enough to show up at that scale - if the vaccine takes half the population out of the running to get sick, and most people both have no symptoms and eventually get over the longer symptoms when they do have them, we're not looking at a huge knock-down of the economy. Certainly, you'd have to turn around and also account for pollution and nutrition issues in a country like China as well.

There are other things I'd worry about first, like the (horrible) efficiency of authoritarianism vs the (also horrible) lurching randomness of a democracy switching direction every few years, and how it allows the authoritarian country to eventually lock down the world economically.
Half the population is a fair estimate, and let's say only a quarter of the anti-vaxers succumb, the numbers would still be horrid but the losses would take a while to reach catastrophic consequences for the country. Yet how long could we hold on? And what would the effect on our medical personnel be, not just physically, because they will mostly be vaxers, but mentally. How long can they hold on? Many are struggling already. And how long before the country achieves normalcy?

As for the authoritarian country, yeah, they're at an advantage.
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