Walter S

Commerce is not really there as a "wealth distribution system". It has that side effect, yes. But it's there because people control certain commodities and services and charge a fee that others are willing to pay. Automation simply puts people out of work, although associated new markets and job needs may open as well - maybe for fewer people overall - usually, if the automation should be considered "successful". After all it didn't just happen. It was initiated by an employer in the hopes of saving money overall. If the employer actually expands their market share etc. they might employ just as many or more people after automation. But that won't be the average effect across the economy in general because that creates too much workforce demand and the economic case for automation again deteriorates.

It's particularly good to realize that there's no system of wealth distribution because if employers could ever make all the money they can imagine, and not hire workers to make things happen they would! Any employer that can maximize their profits and employ a tiny staff of people is sitting pretty. They don't need to "distribute" their wealth. It can stack up, as it unfortunately in fact does much more than 50 years ago. Our CEOs get rich while working class salaries stay flat.

If our current generation of rich folk had to spend more money on salaries it would feed the economy. Or taxing them more would do so, albeit less efficiently. Or their own investments might do that, but trickle down is not working as advertised.

Most people won't "lead a life of leisure" regardless of automation. How will they buy groceries and pay property taxes? They'll either have a job somehow feeding the machine or they'll be poor and out of work. The rich people will stay rich and the rest of us about the same as now - getting by.

McBTC

From the above I guess we can conclude that anyone who is mobility deficient and proud of it gets a pass on the LCF forum-- they talk politics all they want -- nothing to do with cars or even bikes -- but, everyone else gets a warning and the thread gets booted to P&R...

cooker

One off-topic post does not justify another. Have you made a 5-year prediction?

jack pot 

... i predict that per centage wise there will be less high end recreational bikes produced/sold and more low end transportation bikes imported/made/sold in america ... i base this on millennial's disillusionment and a general dissatisfaction with how over marketed consumerism is leading to a diminished quality of life

cooker

That's great, thanks. I tend to get as caught up as anybody in the spin-off discussions and have to remind myself as well as everybody else to get back on topic. Whether it is "disillusionment" or simply changing economic circumstances, I think you are right that we will see some continuing market shift to transportational biking, certainly in larger cities.

However, offsetting that is that the millennials may simply repurpose the previous generation's garage wall-mounted rec bikes for utility.

McBTC

Radical Islam will come into possession of fissile materials from Russia, irradiate all bicycles in Paris with a dirty bomb and only owners of Teslas equipped with hepa air filtering will be protected from the fallout.

I-Like-To-Bike

How much market shift to transportational biking, certainly in larger cities do you predict in the next five years? Think it might "shift" to greater than 2% of overall commuting trips or any significant percentage of any other kind of transportational/utility trips outside the immediate neighborhood(i.e. not trips taken principally for recreation or sport) for non-student adults?

I predict a relatively tiny "market shift" to transportational biking may possibly occur but the overall total numbers and percentages will remain insignificantly low except in a few isolated locations, principally in communities dominated by a college campus.

cooker

It was jack pot's prediction, so maybe he or she will try to specify numbers. You're probably right that it will be at most a fairly small and localized trend, although personally I would expect it to happen also in larger cities like Toronto or Boston where colleges are only part of the explanation.

jack pot 

>>> a 5yr future should show an overall increase in trasportational biking because of the changing nature of jobs and work places ... the bike intensive areas you mention will probably sprawl as part of the digital & soft job dynamic ... this sprawl will be conducive for the urban ees populating it to deinvent the auto/shopping culture ... urban renewals, small towns, or planned communities where these new soft bizs start up or relo are natural socio/economic incubators for an emerging post modern anti consumerist urban lifestyle ... the % of change will be linked to the biz/job growth in these new communities ... if tRump makes america great in the nxt 4 yrs the % could be significantly greater than 2 > 8-10 ?!

cooker

I found that a bit hard to read. I 'm not sure what you meant by bike intensive areas "sprawling". I think you mean that more areas will become conducive to a less car-dependent lifestyle, but sprawl is usually used in reference to low population density and spread out and segregated built facilities, so I am not sure it is appropriate to use it in the way you seem to be doing.

McBTC

What does that look like, LCF or LEF --i.e., free of Everything or Everything for free?

McBTC

Since LCF has little to nothing to do with bikes or the love of the sport of cycling in general and given the anti-something if not anti-everything mindset that underlies the movement as we hear it from the LCF faithful, the ultimate expression of LCF ideology would have to be love of the lifestyle of a passenger on a spacecraft headed to Mars.

I-Like-To-Bike

I thought that you were the self appointed LCF expert on deciphering the visionary ramblings posted on this list.

I-Like-To-Bike

Perhaps these ascetic devotees are early adapters of the predicted emerging post modern anti consumerist LCF urban lifestyle.

cooker

Wow you guys need to get a life.

jon c. 

I think anti-consumerism will be found to be just another marketing ploy

cooker

Let's stick to 5 year predictions.

McBTC

Does $300M for a painting violate the morals of the anti-consumerists? How about paying a premium for a handmade retro cromo bike?

From wiki's, list of the highest known prices paid for paintings--

I'm a big believer in frugality and living within one's means. That makes me a rational consumer, not an anti-consumer. I could more easily live without a bike than a car so owning a bike is an opulence that should appall anti-consumerists, which is fine but why are they posting their bs here on the bike forum?

McBTC

No wonder Kooning's Interchange hauls in the green-- see the cool black road bike?

I-Like-To-Bike

Or a tarp and a shady spot to lie down and dream up some visions of past, present and future.

cooker

Yes, finally(!) - we all await your vision of the future.

McBTC

In 5 years a value-priced road bike with quality components selling today at ~$1,500 will be ~$2,999...

cooker

Is it for commuting or otherwise related to LCF?

McBTC

It should have relevance for all consumers irrespective of their lifestyle choices although for those living in a bubble, prices of goods and services and all other practical and pragmatic considerations are entirely irrelevant and they should feel free to avoid planning ahead.

I-Like-To-Bike

Not entirely so for those voluntarily living in the ascetic BF-LCF Bubble™, the price of commuting is all important, as apparently they do nothing else outside the home or at work (and go nowhere else) except for walking the dog or what little amount of shopping they do before returning to their room.