ktm500mx

most bikes I see advertised are quite higher then bike bluebook value listed. is the book wrong or are they just overpriced?
thx

Broctoon

For bikes, book value is almost meaningless.

With cars, there are so many transactions taking place every day, book/website publishers can gather price data that is reasonably valid. There are also data points regarding reliability ratings and typical maintenance costs for a given model, which theoretically factor into the published values (I don't know if this is the case, but it could be).

I don't think there's any way to track a statistically significant sample size of used bike sales. So whoever is publishing values is really just guessing. Market forces drive prices way up or way down on whims, and the price you have to pay for a given model might be very different from the published value.

Iride01 

Never list at the price you really want. Though I'm sure many hope that someone naïve or desperate will come along and pay those prices. I use to watch a lot of bikes on eBay and Craigslist. Few ever sold and quite a few were relisted for years.

You should check the bluebook to get a look at what they think. But you also have to consider how long you might have to look to find something else. Offer what you feel comfortable paying. If the seller doesn't want to come down to what you are comfortable with, then you should be happy to know it's worth more to them and let them keep it.

I have had sellers call me back and saying they'd take my original offer for the bikes. But by then it was too late. And I was actually glad because I'd found better.

blacknbluebikes 

Textbook definition of "illiquid markets" ... no transparency, no depth, no reference pricing. BUT, given some time and basic internet skills, one can learn a market. Suppose I want to buy another used bike, maybe an endurance type with electronic shifting. There are certain models that will "present" regularly on eBay. So, I set alerts - emails triggered by new posts - that tell me when a Spesh Roubaix or a Trek Domane or a (whatever) post up for sale. After a while, I've seen enough posts (dozens) and I've learned the different sub-models, and I've seen the various "vintages" and, I start to know what the value should be... that looks high, that one's got something wrong with it, that one is ... POUNCE. You get to know the market before you transact in the market. Old saying: there's always an idiot in the market, and if you don't know who it is, it's probably you.

tFUnK

BBB estimates are based on a depreciation model not unlike what's used in insurance appraisals. The problem with that model is there is no floor, which is what is observed in practice (ie, a well-functioning used bike's value never really depreciates to $0 in real life). Even insurance companies recognize this by offering a Full Replacement Value - the cost to replace the item. Example: when my bikes were stolen one of them was 10 years old and the reimbursement value based on depreciation was $100, but the FRP was closer to $1k. I could either take the $100 cash or purchase a replacement bike for $1k and insurance will cover it.

Slight digression but back on topic: I like to look at eBay sold prices (not listing prices) for similar items, reduce that by ~10% (the eBay fee that sellers absorb) to get an idea of the actual fair market value of the item.

big john

Also with cars there is a thing called "actual cash value" which is what dealers use. It's a nationwide database which is updated daily.

Used bike "value" is just what someone is willing to pay for it. Some people sell their used bikes cheap, (I do) and some try to get top dollar. To me, the condition is a bigger factor than brand name or bling factor, within reason. And it depends on if the bike you're looking at fits your body and is appropriate for what you want it to do.

plumberroy

eBay sold prices. Reduced some to allow for fees and sometimes shipping.
Craigslist and Marketplace if you watch the types of bikes you are interested in. Bikes that set for months are high . Bikes sold in hours were below value priced. There is a bike on Craigslist that I made a generous offer . That he declined here three months later it's still listed at a lower price than I offered. He texted me a month ago to offer it to me at the lower price. I had bought something else as good or better at almost half what I offered for the first bike

mstateglfr 

yes

That site doesnt take into account bike size, time of year, location, or comparables in the area. Those are 4 critical factors when determining price, and bbb ignores them.
Further, the price floor on that site is consistently lower than the floor of used markets I periodically watch.

mpetry912 

the book is not wrong. It's just based on guesses. At best !

using ebay sold prices is probably the best market price indication you're likely to get.

if somebody has the book - can you list a price quoted for a 1954 Rene Herse touring bike, in mint condition ?

and for a 1974 Confente road bike in mint condition?

see what I mean ?

/markp

njkayaker

There's a large and well-reported market for used cars. So, it's easy to get good/real information about what people really pay for them.

The "Kelly Blue Book" is biased towards dealers (so it tends to underreport the real-market value).

The "Bicycle Blue Book" name is trying to get people to think of the "Kelly Blue Book" and to think the used-bicycle market is like the used car market (they aren't the same at all).

COVID demand likely caused the market-price of used bike to rise and it's not likely the Bicycle Blue Book ever reflected that.

njkayaker

The full eBay price reflects the "fair market value". Reducing it doesn't make sense (it's related to your costs which has nothing to do with what it can sell for).

genejockey 

Basically, there's insufficient data to compile a useful and accurate price guide for used bikes.

Camilo

Bicycle prices are totally, completely, undeniably totally locally based. I've bought many used bikes and have never used that resource. It has nothing to do with what sort of prices I find locally or on EBay. I simply search for what I'm looking for and then just see what they're selling for from sources I can actually use.

tFUnK

Ok you're not wrong, I should have qualified my post. Whatever sells on eBay, I consider it fair eBay market value. To convert it to fair local market value, I decrease it a bit.

As a buyer, I understand that eBay listings are inflated to account for the seller fees, so if I'm looking for something locally, I expect to pay a bit less. As a seller, I list my items higher on eBay than I would list them locally on Craigslist to account for the fees.

Basically I look at eBay as its own marketplace that tracks well to the actual local marketplace. I knowingly pay that eBay platform premium price for used items I find difficult to obtain via other sources.

Pop N Wood

Read somewhere that the bicycle blue book is run by the people who own performance bicycle, or at least used to own it, and they purposely set the prices low to get more leverage when buying used bikes.

Don't know if that is true but will echo what many have said in that the bicycle blue book generally lists lower prices than what stuff actually sells for.

ktm500mx

I was talking to cycling friends and 2 Bicycle shops, and the consensus was that local values were the norm for pricing.
but it was agreed that published prices on some websites are higher than actual value. noting that upgrade and other factors
can drive the price up or down.
thx Mike

Mojo31

Actually, KBB is more favorable to used car sellers, not dealers. My experience from buying and selling a lot of cars and having car dealer clients is that you will rarely if ever get KBB trade value for a car. It's always going to be less and based on either the Black Book (which most dealers use) or Manheim auction reports.

The Bike Blue Book is useful as a rough resource, but it is not backed by sufficient transactions to provide any level of reliability on a local level.

noquarter1

I used to fret about BBB values because they didn't reflect the actual market where I live (Salt Lake City). Now, I just set my budget, look at everything there, pick out the best one, and feel good about getting the best bike for my budget, rather than hoping it fits someone's idea of what a bike is worth.

mpetry912 

for sure bro. you want to buy somebody else's project. Same as the used Porsche market.

/markp

Calsun

With hundreds of Ford F-150 trucks sold every month an accurate average selling price has some value. Few bicycles are sold in comparable numbers and they are often sold on Craigslist so the sale, unlike auto registrations with the DMV, is not recorded.

Book value on a bicycle is meaningless. A student nearing the end of their term and about to graduate will be happy to sell a bike at far less than someone who is emotionally attached to a bike on which they have ridden thousands of miles.

Hvac

We all know what is fair. Don’t need no Blue Book. We can decide based on the components.

soyabean

Fake book doesn't account for post-covid positive supply shock.

It's a textbook case of low demand vs high supply of anything outdoors, such as bicycles, kayaks, camping gear, camper vans, also but not limited to power tools for forever procrastinated projects and stupid kitchen appliances.

There's a much easier rule of thumb: if it doesn't sell, you're asking way too much.

Caveman

I've never understood the obsession to have a purchase validated by somebody else's opinion of whether or not I got a good deal. If I like the bike (or gun or car or motorcycle or watch) and it's worth the money to me that's the only thing that matters. If you're buying something that isn't trivial in cost (based on your personal financial circumstances) you might want to do a little research first. Most local bike shops are usually willing to provide a little guidance, especially if you're a regular customer. One more reason to skip the internet store and buy your cycling trinkets at the LBS. They can be a valuable resource for things like this. Paying them a few bucks to look over a potential purchase is a good idea too unless you feel competent to do it yourself.

ktm500mx

I have not bought a bike in sometime. the last new bike i bought was a trek 950 mountain bike so if it was a car truck or motorcycle i would have much more
information out there to make a decision.
thanks Mike

Herzlos

the eBay price reflects the fair market value for someone buying a bike on eBay, which is a subset willing to buy a bike sight unseen and have it shipped.

Not that there's much better metric given most sales are going to be cash in hand and will depend wildly on the bike, the buyer and the location.

A niche bike may be worth a lot of money to a seasoned cyclist who needs it for an event that weekend, but only be worth $50 for some dude who wants to take his kids to the park.