hack

Nice! When does he jump to pro?

Jr teammate was out guest riding with Specialized. Attacked early with Hot Tubez, McNulty brought them back. Winning break formed after that I guess. Teammate finished 23rd.

Doge

I hear lots of stuff about lots of kids (< 21 yo) - but I really don't know too much until it happens.
I'd vote - skip the U23 USA thing. I think we may see that happening next two years.


USAC measures, while certainly more experienced than me, do not seem to jive with euro measures. That thing that causes race winning (World Tour type) happens/is discovered later in life and it is real hard to figure out what a teen will be. I am not a fan of all this see Jonny go stuff from a USAC point. As a parent/fan/forum poster, it is fun. But those USA kids that do make it, I can't tie to what USAC did.

Obviously I'm biased - my kid is not racing now (now may be short). But some very talented other USA juniors who rank among top in the world will be racing collegiate (or just studying) next year.

Edit Add:
Brandon does (so I hear) near 400W for about 30 min (cause that is how long jr TTs are).
Wiggo said he needed to do 485 / hour to win the ITT worlds - which he did.
Kwiatkowski published his WC RR power on Strava and it was well north of 500W (580 from memory) for 5+ min

That is a long way to go for these kids, as impressive as they are. So back on my it is too soon kick.

On another note Contador and Schleck both did an ad saying they had max power of <1000W.
Most the kids are well beyond that, but as mileage goes up, power goes down. So again - it is real hard to tell.

I think Adrian and Brandon will be World Tour Pros. After this weekend, I think Curran may be too. But it is real early.

topflightpro

I find it interesting how you view juniors to pros in cycling. I've never really thought much about the cycling development that comes after one turns 18.

By comparison with other sports:

In basketball, it's pretty clear that by 18 who is ready for the pros. The one-year college requirement is only to keep collegiate ball competitive.

But for football, so much development occurs during those first three years of college that no one could reasonably be expected to exceed by making the jump to the pro ranks at 18. Yes, there are one or two people every year who may be developed by their sophomore year, but that is somewhat rare.

Baseball and ice hockey, it's kind of a mixed bag. With both sports, it's not so much the skills or physique that develop as it is the need for the players to adapt to the longer season. Some will play in the minor leagues, others will play at the collegiate level. To a large extent, the quality of the play between college and minor leagues is pretty comparable. But it's really not uncommon to see guys hit the big time at 19 or 20.

As for Golf, probably the other big sport, it's more a mental challenge I think than a physical one for most young players.

Doge

At 18 these kids have just started racing with unrestricted gears.
They just started racing over 80 miles (in big competitions).
They have not raced stage races over 5 days.
It is pretty clear where some of the talent is. It is not clear to me who will be able to make a living that can support a family just by riding.
I saw in my son high power and speed differences based on ride length/time. That may be miles in the legs, it may be talent, it might be gears (his up Strava is far better than his down Strava on the same rides). But it is pretty hard to get a teen to put those 300/400 mile weeks in to compete in 110 mile races - and stage races. And harder if they choose college, harder yet a military Academy. So I will not know if big miles would help keep his power up. Had he been the average European cyclist - or soccer player, the next step would be pro feeder/devo team. Not really a USA option.

Some of the better TdF guys were mid-pac juniors. Most the ITT top juniors are still top pros. But the correlation between world tour GC guys and junior riders is not as high.
Froome turned pro at 22. So for Brandon, it is clear. But there are some 15 or so other I have no idea about. In the USA that U23 is pretty much do it on your own for most and for an American kid where college is valued so much, it is a hard call to bet a future on being a tour pro. Kinda hard reality that if everyone had my view we'd have a lot fewer pros. But if a kid really wants to be a pro, they should do what pros do. Move and live in Europe.

Doge

Worlds TT next week.

furiousferret

Worlds is always next week. Specifically Tuesday Night.

Doge

This is the Worlds where they don't allow electric motors.

tetonrider

world tour teams are sitting out the TTT i hear, yes?

Doge

Yes, Sunday and what I care most about. First it is trade teams which if you like to see what is the best - it is trade teams over country.
Second it is just a beautiful art and skill and variables are low. The best tend to win.

tetonrider

yeah..i love the TTT!

it's a bummer. guess a far lesser team will get the win this year. oh well--sad not to see the best go at it one more time.

be interesting to see if tony martin has peaked properly.

Doge

To Brandon - he left today. It was also 108 degrees F Astana reported in TTT training. As crazy and miserable as that is, I can't think of a better situation for Brandon the Phoenix kid than this.
That just makes a part of the whole thing easier.

The turns and heat are suited to him.
A hill would have made it better yet for the gears.

By gears - some riders naturally prefer a higher cadence. Brandon is one. I expect this to be a 30mph+ TT - with the turns so comfortable 110-120RPM
As there are no downhill sections, no real opportunity to be spinning in that 140 range, where I see Brandon has a big advantage.

furiousferret

You get used to training in the heat, and having spent a month in Qatar during the summer, the climate is very similar to Arizona. It's a bit more humid (not as bad as say, the Carolinas), but once you are a few miles inland its not as noticeable.

Doge

They will never be farther than 200m (guess) from the water. https://www.strava.com/activities/735052266

tetonrider

when i lived in the middle east, i'd talk to people back in the States. they'd tell me 'oh, but it's a dry heat.'

it's 130 degrees...dry heat MFer???

i noticed something funny: the reported temperature got pegged at 50C (122F) for a long time. a month passed, and we're still at 50C. i bought my own thermometer..... sure enough it was WAY hotter. turns out the government caps the official temperature to 50C. maybe they feel tourists will go if it's 122 but not if it's 130?? wtf?

Doge

Well they can always bale out and jump in the ocean (err sea/water). If they were going to insist it was in the middle east why not Dec or Jan?

revchuck 

I remember being in Kuwait and walking out of the AC and into about a 30 mph wind at that temperature, it was like walking into a blow dryer.

tetonrider

@Doge -- i was wrong in the best way. apparently the threatened trade-team boycott of the TTT was just that: it got resolved sometime in the last few weeks since i last checked. cool!

i happened to run into my friend's father (his kid is representing the US in the U23 RR)...skiing today, no less!

the U23 race is basically a kermesse; didn't realize how short it is and how it is just the loops on that (ridiculous) man-made island.

Doge

Well that was my point someplace above.
Adrian decided not to go. Think of that. A 19 year old kid that says, nah, this worlds is not for me. And it isn't.

He will continue to impress.

Actually I'd like the pros to do what the UCI juniors do. Have a Nations Cup. Have them do 5 races and the best points wins.

tetonrider

when i read your post, in the process of checking the status of the protest i had *just* read another article saying it was still on. apparently i came across an old article.

i thought you were basically saying "i like watching that, too, [and i'm bummed]."

my friend was going to sit out worlds because qatar, and because it is *another* month of training ... but then he saw the profile and was all-in. the notion of sitting out worlds is crazy to me as a recreational rider, though i get the rationale.

Doge

On this worlds there are several that at least talked about then out - then in.
I think it was BMC that was out but saw they were in when you posted and didn't follow-up.

Brandon usually wins crits going off the front. Don't know how this one will work. Juniors tend to be less likely to allow an escape than pros.

Doge

Brandon starts last with number 1 about noon - or 2:00AM PDT - I didn't know there would be math. I'll see the result when I get up.
HE just arrived this weekend, so the jet lag thing - if it matters, and I think it does not, would play into it.

hack

Seems the heat has been pretty rough for riders and the earlier starters appear to have "better" performances. Hopefully his Arizona riding will have him well prepared.

Doge

I have not followed all the start times, but first in his group is 8:00 local. He's at noon local. As they try to seed by ability his primary competitors will be doing the same.
Getting weather reports I can figure out is difficult for me, but looks like a 101F peak - which is not bad at all. I think he'll be in his dark blue USA Champ kit rather than his white LUX kit.

jdms mvp

congrats to brandon!

Doge

And Ian in 3rd. But this is Brandon's thread!