mschwett 

i'm not sure where you're getting that - it's pretty clearly intended to be a life cycle analysis :

this is all specifically estimated and reference multiple times in the article. again, not sure if you read the same article?

SirMike1983 

The biggest concern I have about ebikes is that many are now more similar to a moped or a motor-scooter than a regular bike, given the acceleration, speed, and range offered. I see people tearing at high speed down sidewalks, on multi-use trails, and on greenways. Ideally there would be a line drawn somewhere for access - pedal assist up to a point is OK, but if you're motoring along at 25-30mph without any pedaling at all, it shouldn't be on the path or bike trail.

Above is a very interesting point about ebikes being used for recreation rather than replacing automobiles. It reminds me of a very good article I saw regarding the attempt to use bikes to replace automobile trips during WWII in the US under the "victory bike" program. America is "a land of distances", one commentator suggested, which is why it lent itself so well to car and truck travel. I tend to agree.

https://bikebattles.net/2020/03/reco...-bike-in-wwii/

Classtime 

Sitting up and soft pedaling at 28mph on an electric motorcycle is better for the environment than riding a bicycle because we have to replace our calories or waste away. Holy Mother of Dog. What will Mad Ave. think of next.

chain_whipped

On the 'flipside' for you C&V traders.

Some have pretty good relations with bike shops and like myself, have scored amazing deals for vintage trade-ins. I've also dabbled in recumbent types acquired through a bike shop for pittance, just because they have zero interest in reselling such.

That said, I've gambled taking a few e-bike trade-ins. The dealer definitely wants nothing to do with used ones. Mistakenly I've paid too much, originally thinking name brand is easier to resell. The biggest hurdle is ones with integrated controller's. Replacement cost aside, you can't get them. Going aftermarket can somewhat do it but as its always a hack, a potential buyer is turned off. Next is batteries. Way too much to discuss here. Dismal.

Also, they want a used e bike at sub $400. That's the current break. So if you can pick them up for under $100 and make them functional with minimum labor time, give it a go.

(Should've mentioned why the apartment and condo complexes are starting to ban e-bikes. Its the fire potential on charging li-on batteries.)

.

Het Volk

Okay - so then does it take into account the fact a regular steel analog bike can last 40, 50, or more years if cared for, and in that time, an e-bike will likely also need to be replaced 4-5 times during that lifespan?

And who sponsored that “study” at least needs to be asked. And have they then considered the additional carbon needed to take care of the portlier set who are not “burning as many calories” when their medical needs begin to require more care? Or the increased carbon needed to move their heavier weights when driving a car or flying?

Het Volk

My wife’s co-worker lost their garage and a large part of their house due to a battery fire.

Is that carbon impact taken into account?

merziac

Nope, and like all science and data is usually skewed, even if not on purpose, much of the honest numbers are defined so narrowly they don't tell a real, practical story whether by design or otherwise.

Whenever profit and liability are in play, the data is likely not telling the whole story, or any other time for that matter.

mschwett 

you can make up whatever scenario you want to try and get the numbers to tell the story you want to - to some extent we all have biases. the fact is most bicycles don’t last 40 years (an ironic thing to have to point out in a thread about people not wanting old bikes!) and even if they did, the difference in the results of the study would be minimal because three quarters of the greenhouse gas emissions from cycling are from the fuel, not the manufacturing of the bicycle. and on top of that, it isn’t how long they last, but how many miles are ridden. n+1 works against us here, but sure, that 1/4 would drop even further if you kept riding the bike forever.

for all the conspiracy theorists in the room, the data referenced came from the European Cyclists Federation, a group which could hardly be presumed to be biased against cycling! they assumed the bicycle would be ridden 19,200km in it’s life cycle. i agree that this number *should* be higher and i certainly hope to ride my bicycles more than this, but i also don’t collect bicycles.

the methodologies are clearly spelled out for anyone who cares enough to look it at rather than just making up reasons it’s wrong!


https://ecf.com/system/files/Cycle_M...the_Planet.pdf

Atlas Shrugged

Just because the bike theoretically can last 50 years doesn’t mean they are being ridden. The cheap ones end up in the bin at some point and the premium ones are placed in storage or collected by a ever diminishing group of collectors.

It’s really about the actual usage of the bikes. E-bikes are mostly utilitarian in use, going to the store, school, work those kinds of things. The C&V bikes this thread is based on are rarely ridden and when for leisure mostly. It’s bordering on absurd to preach the environmental benefits of C&V bikes which are a luxury and purchased solely for the enjoyment of ownership especially when considering the numbers of bikes acquired by many collectors.

Obviously to each their own and if collecting vintage bikes is your thing enjoy but it’s just a luxury the same as going and purchasing the latest S-Works wonder machine.

Atlas Shrugged

Not sure how this relates to what the C&V market prospects look like but what a great start to a Karl Marx vs Adam Smith thread.

3alarmer 

...why in the world would I put fenders, a rack, and bags on one, if not to ride it around for utilitarian purposes ? Get a grip. sir. Can you even fit "the latest S-Works wonder machine" with fenders and a bag rack ? What am I missing here ? I carry home groceries all the time on one or the other of these. But it's true I can only ride one at a time. Is there not a similar limitation on e-bikes ?

merziac

Clearly

merziac

As usual, you have no idea what you're talking about.

How would you know, plenty of proof and evidence that many of these are ridden often and regularly.

"Obviously" not the same, if it takes an S Works to get you on the road, so be it, they are soulless to many of us and you know that.

Yet you insist on pushing your diatribe on us.

You are truly not one of us or like minded, again, please go away.

I've ridden about 3K on my C+V riders in the last year so again you have no idea what you're talking about.

3alarmer 

...I cannot rationalize the entry price for the latest S-works creation. So I'm stuck riding on this old stuff. The lack of electronical shifting is especially onerous.

Atlas Shrugged

Obviously, you are the exception rather than the rule. For most use applications those bikes would be stolen or stripped the minute they are left unattended in any urban setting.
My perspective was it is hypocritical to criticize e-bikes over C&V bikes due to their environmental impact. I appreciate your love of collecting and riding C&V bicycles and the history they represent. This thread was about the future of the C&V market and pricing trends of which I offered reasonable opinions and became about e-bikes' environmental impact and capitalistic greed. I pointed out the irony of collectors of a luxury good weighing in on this.

3alarmer 

...I live in a place where bicycle theft is relatively high, and it's definitely urban in nature. Why do you presume that these particular bicycles are any more (or less) prone to theft or stripping of parts from them than the e-bikes you are recommending as more practical alternatives ? What leads you to this conclusion ? Wouldn't the newer e-bike stuff be even more prone to theft ? What am I missing in your thinking on this ?

3alarmer 

...I'm definitely seeing some irony on display here. The thread is about how price and demand are way down, and you are describing the category as a luxury good. Kudos.

Classtime 

Fuel?!
I'm gonna sit on my ass, get fat, while riding an electric bike, to save the planet.

3alarmer 

https://discerningcyclist.com/are-el...to-get-stolen/

https://electrek.co/2022/09/20/i-jus...ve-stopped-it/


...if demand for C+V bikes is down, I guess that's also reflected in the theft numbers, relative to what's trendy.
I think it's pretty well established by now, that most bicycles that are stolen, are stolen to be resold. Think about it for a while.

Het Volk

Always use mine for the important stuff

Het Volk

I think the demand discussion veered towards the raison d’etre as to the cause of the decline in demand, and the fact the industry has veered so far over to e-bikes is one of the likely drivers of this trend.

3alarmer 

.
...the good news in this thread: if you ride your beautiful C+V bike around town these days, park it next to an e-bike if you have to lock it up unattended.

Yune_Garage 

I don't comment often but I had to make an extra effort to address the comments made by Atlas Shrugged below because they are what we young people call "sh*t takes".

This is an incorrect assumption. First of all, the intention of the buyer of a C&V bike varies greatly not just simply for rarity or value. And technically, everything produced has a limited supply.

How many under-40 cyclists have you personally spoken to about this & gotten feedback to make this claim? You have stats or some type of polling for this generalization? You're essentially assuming most under-40 cyclists own modern "current tech" bikes only? Go on YouTube, Instagram, Facebook groups (from the US, Europe, Japan, etc) and then you might revaluate your statement. There are huge groups of younger people that love old mountain bikes & old track bikes, etc. Same goes for old classic cars, hot rods, motorcycles, etc.
Also, who expects them to buy hundreds of vintage bikes and then PLACE THEM IN STORAGE? I've never heard anyone say younger cyclists should start hoarding old bikes. You're also assuming anyone that collects old bikes just keeps them in storage. I'm in my 30's, and most of my circle of friends and ride group have a combination of modern and vintage bikes and both are useable (I personally prefer vintage however). How strange to assume vintage bikes aren't as usable as modern tech bikes which are mostly the same recipe (a basic frame geometry with some type of drive mech & wheels.

Again, who is expecting cyclists to transition to C&V bikes? The old guys? Have they collectively gathered globally to make this pronouncement? I must have missed the memo.

It also doesn't mean they're NOT ridden.

More bad assumptions. You ran a forum survey to make this claim or..?

More baseless assumptions & presumptions. Get out more, The world is a big place!

Strangely, I don't know what you hate more, old bikes, or old "collectors". There's a tone of resentment in some of your comments which is weird bc going off a comment you made on another thread, you've been riding since the 70's which means you're definitely no spring chicken yourself.

bark_eater 

Sic balls, Chopper!

I haven't followed this too closely, and I may have the context wrong, but one of your nemesis's zinger's seems to dismiss the value riding "for leisure". Just based on that horror, I'll be using the ignore button.

rustystrings61 

Been holding off on this one, but, hey, here goes -

My reasons for preferring what we term C&V bikes have zero to do with collecting value or investment. I already played that game with vintage guitars in the 1980s and 1990s, back before the money involved crossed over into crazy territory. But that tangent bears on this matter this way - when I started playing guitars that are now "vintage collectables" they were just older guitars, and I consciously sought them out because the newer guitars of that era were frankly inferior. In 1986 my 1960 LG-2, a smaller grand-concert guitar that was built by the same hands using the same materials, even down to the same aesthetic choices in binding and sunburst finish, was regarded as a student instrument and had no value beyond its playabilty and tone - both of which were excellent. Think of it as a really nice Univega road bike, which for many years would have been an absolute sleeper on the market, or even a late '80s Centurion LeMans which yields a ride comparable to a nice 531-tubed bike while kitted out with budget OEM parts. Today that LG-2 I bought for $125 is a $5-6,000 guitar and has been "rediscovered."

Don't leave out the C, or classic, part of the C&V equation. My 2002 Mercian Vincitore fixed-gear is the equivalent of my 2005 Gibson J-45, a modern item created using the template of something that worked really well in the past for a very long time.

I don't think C&V bikes are only about aging Boomers. The whole premise of Rivendell was the pushback of craft and the mastery of skills vs. pushbutton innovation for the sake of innovation. Technology starts becoming obsolete the minute it leaves the sales floor, technique is a series of acquired skills that can be transmitted culturally. Today there's a whole cluster of cultish but no less present small makers and suppliers addressing the needs of cyclists who prefer to continue using older and more durable equipment. The more transient our culture becomes, the greater the assailing of our senses with the constant race to keep up with whatever tomfoolery is currently in vogue coupled to the desperate need to sell new stuff that requires replacement at ever shorter intervals - the more there will be a pushback against it and the more there will be people choosing the older item or process that is more about human skills.

That was a subcurrent in the great Fixie boom, which was followed by hipsters seeking out vintage touring bikes. In other fields, the whole vintage guitar world started out with young guys concluding that older guitars sounded and played better than the new products of the industry, enough that eventually that industry turned to making meticulous recreations of their past designs - the whole relic/Murphy-Lab madness of paying extra to have your brand new guitar beated, abraded and mistreated to look like it had been played in beer and barbecue joints for decades simply being a misguided attempt to purchase authenticity. And what about the hot rod guys of years past? That was usually younger folks who weren't around when those cars were new, and the continuity from souped-up '32 Fords and today's resto-mod bike builds is pretty obvious.

I think it's just cyclical. Demand may be temporarily down, but not forever. And that's not just a matter of vintage stuff, but also the renewal of classically-inspired new bikes.