repechage

there is an anecdotal observation that those who became derailleur bike aware in the index shifting era (starting about 1985-86) do expect that indexed shifting. The idea that one can control and select gears manually and on the downtube no less, is new to them. I do get questions.

I get unsolicited admiration for two bikes in particular, a ‘72 Colnago as the name is pretty well known and a Black Bertin with half chrome stays and pin striping, classic styling wins and gets noticed.

SirMike1983 

Regardless of demand, one thing that helps is when someone experienced with old bikes acts as a guide for newer people in the hobby. New people can certainly search the internet, but there is still no substitute for having someone to approach with specific questions or advice (what to buy vs. avoid, common problems, etc.). I think that as experienced old bike people, we have a responsibility to help people entering the hobby to learn about what is out there, how to avoid getting burned, common issues, etc. The hobby is about riding old bikes, but it's also about the other people involved.

thinktubes 

I predict around 2028, there will be backlash against high-tech bikes and a new generation will discover vintage bikes

Sedgemop 

All it will take is another recession and people will be looking for inexpensive, reliable transportation.

Het Volk

None of us really know how this will play out.

• As bikes evolve more and more into electric / digital forms, will this automatically create a reaction to that (by Millennials and Gen Z types) such that a sizeable cohort gain an interest in the classic steel bikes discussed on this forum? Or will they just move towards wanting maybe analog bikes, but in a modern style frame with disc brakes? Who knows?
• As we increasingly move into a digital world, there is often a reaction against that. Recently there was an article discussing how luxxury car brands are moving back towards a more analog dashboard because, as many of us know, those damned touch screens are actually more difficult for things as simple as changing the radio station or adjusting the A/C.
• I think our priors lead us to thinking everyone will crave classic steel bikes, rim brakes and friction shifting.... but I susepct if there is a move towards simplicity, the majority of the younger set will be so set in their ways as to only want brifters and disc brakes for general riding purposes. A smaller, niche will likely want to experience what riding bikes was 40 years ago and before then, but will that be enough to keep up demand for all of these Eroica events and prices of C&V bikes/frames/components? Again, who really knows.
• Anectodal, but the general age of those interested in C&V seems to steer towards the older side. This could mean that, in additionl to potentially a decline in the market demand for C&V, an increase in supply is likely going to surge over the next 10 - 20 years, as unfortunately, father time always wins.
• This is good news for people who are younger and into C&V, but also, a lot of knowledge will be lost sadly. Sheldon Brown is great, and the internet is a great resource, but there is something that will be lost over the next quarter-century in terms of memories, stories and know-how.

smd4

Probably not as much as you think. The last commercially built steam locomotive was built in 1952 in the US. The technology itself is from the 1820s. And yet there are thousands of young folks today who know how to safely maintain and operate this obsolete technology. C&V bikes are simpler by an order of magnitude.

RiddleOfSteel

Man, I love old steam locomotives. They were/are maintenance queens, but they look magnificent and are still fully capable as freight or passenger pullers. Those and '20s-'30s automobiles would be great to get more hands on with. They are still a bit pricey and their rarity and general existence in museums makes them a bit more hands off. Like you said, C&V bikes are monumentally simpler. Those now and in the future may get into them for the look and the experience, but I think many will get into them--in a very practical sense--because they are so cheap and basic (or simply so much cheaper than the equivalent new or used modernly-equipped bikes) that it makes sense financially. I think that's how many have done so today, and certainly that was my experience, being given a much-too-small bike in exchange for helping an older couple pack their POD to move halfway across the country. That and they didn't have room for it. Unexpected beginnings and all of that.

repechage

since he was three years old, my son’s favorite locomotive is a Lima built GS-4.
a 4-8-4 wheel configuration Super Power 300 psi boiler - 5,000 hp about if the trailing truck internal booster was pulling too.
we have been on excursions behind it a few times. Terrific. Has its own house in Portland Oregon now. Impressive.

Steel Charlie

New and complicated can be great but it can also be a PITA. I have a couple and they're OK. But, I'm old and simple. I like old and simple things. They make me happier. Their value is measured by how happy they make me. Difficult to quantify the happy quotient and even more so to commodify.

georges1

An old friend of mine said "Old tech that work is good tech" , it is true for bikes as well. DI2, Sram Etap and Campy Super Record electronic shifting are not going to age well.

smd4

She belongs to the City of Portland!

That's awesome! I've seen her under steam a few times before, and got to climb into the cab once. A magnificent machine, built in 1941, before most of us were alive, and yet people still can operate and maintain her!

C&V Bikes should be no problem for future generations.

smd4

I work in an office that has thousands of floppy disks in storage. We have to hire an outside vendor who has a basement full of old computers he maintains to tell us what's on the disks. Ain't cheap. Electronic technology moves waaaay too fast.

mtbikerjohn 

Yep I agree about steam trains...That is yours truly in the foreground acting as a brakeman on a test of the silver car we built in our Car shop.

georges1

there is one thing to remember about SRAM Etap:

repechage

‘if I recall correctly, the lead and trailing trucks now use Timken or roller bearings vs the original plain.
‘the GS-5’s now scrapped, maybe one on display, maybe. Had the Timken bearings for the main drive wheels.
‘one was Timken, the other SKF.
‘but the diesels were leading the way forward…

1989Pre 

Who cares what other people are doing?! I look at C&V from a rider's view-point, not a salesman's.

gearbasher

Our C/V bikes will be back in demand once we get hit with an E.M.P. Our vintage cars and watches will also be sought after. Unfortunately, we won't be able to get paid, because hardly anyone knows what cash is. All their money will vanish with the rest of the 1s and 0s.

Classtime 

California will outlaw the resale of non-e-cars in 2035. The way things are going, I wonder if they will also outlaw the resale of non-e-bikes.

AdventureManCO 

Had a big post written out, but didn't hit 'post'.

In Avon, CO this week (had a job up there), e-bikes completely dominated people's riding choices (80-90%). Those that were on old fashioned bikes were on high-end, late model mtbs. The marketing is working, and people definitely have the 'should I make it an e-bike?' question now on their consciousness. You know, make them feel like they're saving the world.

If we think the vintage market has fallen off a cliff, just wait. We ain't seen nothing yet. And as another poster said, in the next 10-15 years, some major collections are going to flood the market - we'll have even more bikes and even less buyers.

TL;DR version: we are coming up on the greatest vintage bike buying spree we'll ever have in our lives! Get ready!

AdventureManCO 

Heck, if armageddon comes, even an old 'analog' Huffy will have merit! (no it won't)

Sedgemop 

I think we're already seeing the collections on the market. My most significant purchase this year came from a fellow forumite who was letting go of his not small collection. Lately, I've seen several other forum members letting go/downsizing their collections. For the last 10 years, most of my road bike purchases have come from boomers switching to a hybrid/e-bike, or giving up riding. What started as a trickle now seems like a steady stream. I'm down for it.

AdventureManCO 

Fellow hoarders to the rescue!

Het Volk

Saw a late 1980's Mercian bike, my size, for only $100.00. It clearly needed some TLC, but it was by no means anything more than rust removal and a drive-train overhaul. It could be that this individual has NO idea what they have, or it could be that this is the market price to move C&V bikes. I am third in line, if the other 2 buyers fall through.....however, at that price, I doubt I am going to be the lucky buyer.

AdventureManCO 

Hmm! Was it local? on FB? If so, there's a good chance that those others in line might be so lazy that they'll end up getting to you after all. After my wife tried to sell just a couple of items, and we were on the flip side of the equation, you get a very minor exposure to the scourge of humanity. I think my favorite response was 'hey I wasn't there when I said I'd be I was out drinking, lemme know when I can stop by again...'

repechage

I think we are at one extreme of the demand pendulum right now. It will normalize but will shift.
the rise of index shifting as a legit classic and vintage aspect. Danger to the ClassicRendezvous crowd. Eroica also.
a category between Nova and Historica will be needed. Or promoters will lose a whole swath.