john m flores 

"According to the German Bicycle Industry Association, sales of bikes in Germany reached a new record of €7.36 billion last year, or roughly US $7.8 billion. E-bikes made up nearly half of that total, but now the group is forecasting that German riders will buy more e-bikes than conventional models this year."

https://electrek.co/2023/09/30/germa...c-bikes-sales/

Reynolds 

Apocalypse is near.

2old

$-wise the quantity may be nearly equal, but the number of units probably reflects differently since the price of "e" probably exceeds considerably. Still, the trend is inescapable.

PeteHski

There are also far more regular bikes already in existence so the demand for new bikes will be more limited. E-bike buyers are far more likely to be first time e-bike owners.

jon c. 

It makes sense as bicycles last a long time. That half the bikes sold are e-bikes doesn't mean that half the bikes on the road are e-bikes. And there are a lot more bike commuters there than in the US. I think that usage especially lends itself to e-bikes. Don't think I'm likely to buy an e-bike anytime soon but if I rode to work every day I'd probably get one.

PeteHski

Yeah I see a lot of e-bike commuters now. Perfect application and so much more efficient than driving a car solo.

3alarmer 

.
...I'm hesitant about expressing any opinion, one way or the other, on the coming e-bike apocalypse. It always seems to bring out the trolls.
But there was an interesting article on what has happened in Paris, as the people there have actually embraced cycling (of all sorts) as a transportation alternative in large numbers.
.
.

Paris is seeing a new kind of road rage: Bike-lane traffic jams

It was hinted at as long as two years ago, here in the NY Times: As Bikers Throng the Streets, ‘It’s Like Paris Is in Anarchy’
So I guess it's a good thing, managed poorly, resulting in the usual problems created by lack of planning and foresight.

Which is also my take on e-bikes, if I think about it long enough.

Germany_chris

Germans ride bike for transportation and have the infrastructure to reflect that, what’s the big deal?

Rick_D

We did a German student exchange when my kid was a high schooler. Turns out the girl we hosted had a small motorscooter she used for basic transportation, as was common among the teens in her town. (Her license was a Class S, which has been superseded by Class L6e. There are also Classes L and T, with lower speed limits.)

I can easily see how an ebike can replace that motorscooter for their transportation needs; likely true in many European countries. Cars are less common and license requirements are much more stringent than in the States where it's frankly too easy. It's also expensive.

3alarmer 

...true story, you can believe it or not. Down at the neighborhood soccer/baseball field yesterday, where I jog laps for about an hour most days, I saw a couple of pre-schoolers with their moms, over on the baseball backstop bench. I continue jogging past. The kids, a boy and a girl, are digging a hole in the loose dirt. Generally, we're all having a good time. Second lap, I notice the boy has picked up his tiny bike, which looks a little odd. As I go past this time, doing the hill repeats on the far end, he wants to go up the hill, too.

So his mom tells him, "It's pretty steep, you'll need to use the throttle". I start running a little faster. He makes it up the hill, stops, and turns around to go down. At the bottom he is pretty much out of control, but manages to hang on and cross the field, using nothing but the throttle.

I'm trying to figure out whether it's safer to just run the levee top, at this point. But he goes back across to the bench, with his mom. Next time I pass, he's sitting there on the e-bike about three feet from her, and he decides he wants to go again. Like any pre schooler, he unthinkingly hits the throttle, and runs his bike into the bench next to his mom, falling over. Because he's a pre-schooler. His mother was unfazed by all of this. She asks him if he wants her to put the throttle on a lower setting.

Honestly, I still don't really believe it. And I was there.

cyclezen

Some observations, as relates to the region in Germany, which I call 'home'. It's quite 'rural' with mostly smaller towns. Larger cities in the area, like Munich and Nurnberg, do have some of the issues of urbanization and suburbanization, but quickly blend to 'rural' also.
Germans do have a love affair with their motor cars, and fawn upon them as if they are 'children', certainly equal to a pet... LOL!
But, there's always been the bicycle. For the longest time, after WW II, a regular source for short distance transport, when Bus or train were not necessary.
In recent decades, they've rediscovered the bicycle, as a great way for the 'wochenende wanderung' - weekend walk/hike/excursion. Most often on Sunday, Saturday being a day for getting home projects and needs done. Not quite the overwhelming use, as in the Netherlands. But still obvious and ever-present.
The 'e-bike' has accentuated that, as well as a viable commuting method for short distances - 1 to 5-6 km... Many of the smaller towns (as with the larger burgs) are quite 'tight', with limited motor vehicle parking and often longer additional walks to their destinations.
The e-bike has taken over, for many functions, enjoyment, exercise and small errands/shopping. Most notably, the Sunday excursion to a 'Gast-Haus' for the Mid-Day meal. Germans love to get into the countryside and have their Main Meal (which is commonly the midday meal) in some 'country' setting.
E-Bikes are 'IT'...
Ride On
Yuri

PeteHski

Most European cities are simply not very car friendly compared to typical US grid based cities, so bikes and motor scooters are simply a more practical and faster way of getting around. E-bikes are going to be massively popular and will probably replace a lot of current motor scooters. I’m starting to see that already in local cities with lots of the delivery guys moving from motor scooters to e-bikes. Commuters are also starting to favour e-bikes over normal bikes, especially for longer commutes. Also seeing quite a few of these on rural commutes lately. People who would have likely driven previously.

work4bike

It's hard to say how this ebike industry will affect things as it continues to grow, but it's something I'm watching with interest. This video talks about that growth, it's about a year old.