livedarklions

Wow, just wow!

You said something dumb and then doubled down on it, and now it's my fault for not knowing you actually knew it was there the whole time when you said it didn't exist? Seriously?

And besides, how would I know how long you've been living there or where it is in relation to your ride? You said it didn't exist, I didn't.

The survival of Ace stores, which are generally small, really cuts against your argument in the first place, btw. But I'm pretty sure you probably don't remember what you were pontificating about in the first place.

indyfabz

I’m glad you had the energy to point all that out.

vespasianus

I can see your point but your analogy is that smaller stores have been replaced with larger conglomerates might not hold true for the bike shop. Or it might. I guess you could say the Trek and Specialized store concept is taking over but overall, the number of bikes shops is dropping. Are people going to Dicks and REI for their stuff? I would assume many are going to Amazon.

70sSanO

I think more people are going to buy online, or place orders through mfg dealers. The service side needs to be ironed out, and there will need to be demos available. And some independent shops will be around.

I think the pandemic shortages are pushing car dealers to minimize inventory when supply is resumed. The days of row after row of new cars are probably over.

I can see bike shops doing something similar. They might have entry level bikes that move quickly, but not tying up too many dollars in inventory.

I don’t see Trek at Dicks. Schwinn, Mongoose, I think GT, and others have done that and most people do not have a positive view of those brands.

It is similar to when Wilson decided to sell their golf clubs at discount stores. Despite all their efforts in recent years, and a number of them have been very good, they have never overcome that stigma.

John

vespasianus

I agree with the car model but think it will depend on the consumer. What will they like?

I was talking with the local Trek guy and he said having Trek behind them during the pandemic was huge. I can't imagine how some of these small shops survived. I know a lot around me are still doing huge repair business.

Also, you are 100% right about tennis stores. We are in a top 5 location for Tennis (UTSA clubs) and all three tennis shops closed. They even had a price matching program and that did not help.

70sSanO

I agree that the consumer will have a big input.

I also think the bigger the price tag the easier to “order” exactly what the customer wants. It will be up to the mfg’s to be able to quickly respond to those orders.

I used to play a lot of tennis and those small shops were great especially for stringing a certain way. I know Sports Chalet, Authority (both gone), and now Dicks string racquets, but I never used them.

John

livedarklions

This is really my point with the Ace Hardware thing, it's a different model under which a very large number of smaller mostly locally-owned hardware stores have thrived in the face of two ubiquitous big box chains and Amazon. I don't know if there's any room in the bike industry for a co-op arrangement of LBS like that, but it might be something to look at.

Part of the issue here is that it's an industry where hardware, mechanical service and sporting goods overlap, so it's hard to draw models and lessons from any one of them.

TiHabanero

"The days of row after row of new cars are probably over."

I had that same thought earlier this year, however I am seeing a return to requesting test drives before buying, and wanting the vehicle now, not 6 weeks from now. For a while there people came in and ordered a vehicle sight unseen, but slowly people are coming back to their senses leaving the panic buying behind. After all, how many of us are willing to plunk down 30 or 50k or more for a depreciating asset without making sure it checks all the boxes first. A whole different scenario than a 500-1000 bicycle.

downhillmaster

Once a month a knucklehead with seemingly zero knowledge of retail sales in general makes a clueless post about LBS and it’s off to the races. Participated a few times myself in the past lol.
Gotta love BF!

livedarklions

There's just too many differences between the car industry and the bike industry for trends in that industry to tell us much of anything, especially when things in the auto industry have been so disrupted by supply chain issues that may or may not be transitory and that are even worse than what's been going on in the bike industry.
The really outstanding difference is that there's a network of sellers of used cars, some of them quite large, that is just not comparable to anything in the bike industry. That inventory is going to be constantly in stock going forward as long as the fleets continue to get priority on the new cars. I don't know the percentages off the top of my head, but just the sale of used fleet vehicles from rental car companies is a very significant portion of the car sales in this country. New car sales are continually competing with cars that are just a couple of years old and this has gotten more pronounced in the past few decades as the useful life of a vehicle has gotten longer and longer.

It's too soon to declare the big car lot dead, it might or might not be happening, but I'm not sure it has any relevance to lbs strategy.

mstateglfr 

Everything I have read predicts vehicle supply will increase and get back to 'normal' by '24. Brands and dealers will lose out on potential sales if they dont have inventory in stock on lots ready to move. The moment 3 dealers in town have a bunch of stock, the others will have to follow along because there are plenty of people who are not brand loyal, want to see what they are spending half a year's salary on, and want to drive it home that day.

livedarklions

I think the big problem in predicting supply by 2024 is you have to be able to predict computer chip production which is getting messed up by a lot of factors and may also be affected drastically by the war in the Ukraine: https://www.reuters.com/technology/e...ok-2022-03-11/

China also seems to be confused in its COVID recovery efforts, sticking with an ineffective vaccine seems to be a problem people didn't anticipate.

chaadster

One point of relevance to what’s been happening in the auto industry and the bike industry is that traditional sales models (i.e. dealerships and bike shops) aren’t gettin’ it anymore because most of both are simply lousy and cannot meet consumer demands. They’re antiquated models mired in shortcomings, leaving room for alternate models like etailers and DTC. Brands like Tesla and Canyon are DTC benchmarks, while Carvana and Pro’s Closet are pretty good examples of etailing changes where hustlin’ used stuff with good presentation and services was so successful, both now sell new product as well.

I don’t think that means real stores will go away, nor does it mean people don’t want dealerships or LBSs, but it does strongly suggest that dealerships and LBSs need to do things differently and better.

It’s only mildly surprising yet totally stunning that not a single bike shop in my area, despite 2 years of profound change due to COVID, has initiated mobile services, like a repair van. No delivery service, no express repairs… In fact, I’ll go so far as to say my LBSs have shown the least— and I mean *zero*— adaptation to market changes of any business I use. Well, except gas stations. Otherwise, I’m only slightly hyperbolic when I say that every biz I can think of has made some process changes to adapt to COVID, but not the LBS…

livedarklions

Careful with that Carvana is the future stuff--its burn rate is off the charts. Not saying DTC isn't going to increase, but I don't think Carvana is going to be there much longer.

chaadster

As for car dealer inventory, I don’t expect that will be coming back anytime soon. Not only are manufacturers probably happy to be running down internal combustion engine stocks, they probably appreciate the forced slowdown to help implement their promise to switch the bulk of fleet offerings over to electric, something many of the big companies promised to do by 2025 (in the USA).

Stellantis has already announced that MY22 Alfa Romeo production will be 80% preorder, 20% dealer spec. Sure, Alfa is the “low hanging fruit” in that they were only selling 30k units of the nameplate annually, but aside from the reduction of dealer stock in the USA for at least this year, I think it’s a pretty clear indicator of how one of the American “Big 3” and 6th largest manufacturer in the world, views viable marketplace adaptation strategies.

Koyote

Careful with the examples, there. I think Carvana lost about $300m last year, and it's debt load is enormous; not sure I'd call it "successful" just yet.

I'm not sure about Pro's Closet, but would be circumspect. I think it's privately held, so it's hard to get solid numbers -- but it looks like they have gotten lots of VC funding -- which is very different from being profitable. I'm curious to see whether their business model has legs, or was just driven by Covid-related bike shortages.

Koyote

I would hardly extrapolate market trends from the strategy of a tiny niche brand.

mstateglfr 

Yeah, the many predictions I read that inventory would be back to normal by '24 were all made prior to the war in Ukraine. I have read that a few US based companies are working on opening vehicle specific chip facilities stateside. I imagine that will take a bit of time still.
And I also read car manufacturers are working with chip companies to reduce the number of chips needed. So maybe somehow fewer chips handle more responsibilities? Odd that the chip companies are working on actively reducing their product volume, but nothing really surprises me anymore.

70sSanO

For those working in the industry, do bike mfg offer customizing mods, or options, when ordering a bike?

For instance, a particular bike level with 105, but then upgrade a wheelset, swap out the 105 RD for a GRX and a wide range cassette?

Or is that something an LBS would do?

John

GhostRider62

Trek Project One bikes are sort of custom.

You can buy the frame or have it made and then source all the parts as you want and then build it up. That is what I do.

Troul 

For a whole new (non BSO) bicycle, buying online may not be entirely possible, unless you go about it with an unorthodox way.
Doing so may risk OEM/Retailer coverage, should something go awry. IE: Trek Domane SL

The retail auto industry may become more fluid with retaining vehicles on the lot...
MO, it probably will be as a result from not being able to offload them as they traditionally would have.
Again, my opinion, & it's merely derived from my network of people & my overall personal perception.

Regarding carvanananananana....
They have been offering a lot more $ than what the book (trade-in & private seller) value is worth for a variety of vehicles.
As if it is another attempt at "cash for clunkers" .

Troul 

Depends how a person defines customizing mods & options.

I've looked into ordering a new Domane P1 not long ago (end of last year) & the offerings for building, customizing, & selecting options did not meet my definition.

70sSanO

I don’t see customizing as a frame up build, but being able to change compatible wheelsets, cassettes, derailleurs, stems, saddles when “ordering” a bike from the mfg is an advantage over selecting one off the shop floor.

Do shops still offer the ride around the parking lot demo?

This might be fine for an entry level bike, but short of a demo rental program, hardly gives the rider any real riding experience.

John

Rolla

Some offer a menu of different build levels, but few allow the customer to choose parts that fall outside of the menu or to mix and match between the levels. The smaller the company, the more likely they are to offer more customization; once they're selling hundreds or thousands of units, the bikes are already built, boxed, and on the loading dock.

Of course.

At my shop, we encourage people to take the bike beyond the parking lot, and even provide directions for a short but varied route. It's not that different from a car's test-drive.

prj71

Yup.

I've found quite the opposite to be the case. LBS pricing IS the main reason I shop online. More often than not, I buy bike parts and other bike related items for ~2/3 the price of what the LBS sell them for.